Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Pinnacle Pulse

The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble

It’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, talking about plays you should or shouldn’t have made over the weekend, but it’s a far more daunting task to look ahead to Saturday or Sunday, make selections and consistently pick winners. Pinnacle Sports sharp players do just that.
One of my aims when writing this column has been to help readers find a smarter way to bet at Pinnacle Sports by providing an unprecedented insight into the point spread movement on certain key games each week. The idea is to let readers know well before kick off if it’s the public or pros that are causing the line movement, how big the moves are, and if we expect any further movement before game day.
One of our readers emailed me this week asking how the wise guys were doing on the featured games. Out of interest, I went back through the first twelve editions of The Pinnacle Pulse to see just how “sharp” our sharp plays were. There were 28 games where we identified sharp action on just one side of the game. Out of those 28 selections, the sharps were an impressive 18-9-1.
Now I am not advocating that you bet every game we identify as having sharp action, but sports betting is a business of information and I just wanted you to be aware that this information is available. If you find yourself opposed by the sharps, take a closer look at the game to decide if you should make a smaller play or simply pass altogether. On the other hand, agreement with sharp action might be enough to help you pull the trigger on a game that you thought was a marginal play.
In addition to detailing the sharp action in this column, it is also worth being aware of the “Pinnacle Lean”, which you can view at anytime by comparing our NFL lines against several other books when they post their lines. At Pinnacle Sports we use -104 style pricing on NFL sides, which offers bettors up to 60% better value than other books. If the market has the Colts at -14 -110 while we have it at -14 -111 following a 7 cent move, it’s a strong indication that: a) the Colts are the right side; and b) the market will creep up to -14.5 (or higher).
The best way to exploit this is to do your handicapping homework; you should have your lines set for games you are interested in very early - preferably Sunday evening for the NFL. If your handicapping favors the Colts, play it against the early number. If you’re in opposition to the Pinnacle Lean, wait for the market to move to get the best number possible.
Another way you can use the Pinnacle Lean is with teasers. If you are considering a six point tease on a +2.5 underdog, look at the lean. If the favorite is priced at -2.5 -111 or higher at Pinnacle Sports, you might want to pass or wait to make your play to avoid teasing a dog that closes at +3. If you teased that +2.5 dog to +8.5 and the number closed at +3, this leg of the teaser only hits at a 70% clip whereas 73% is required to break even.
You can also look at the moneyline on favorites to assist in teaser selection. For instance, if you were considering teasing the Chicago Bears this week from -7 to -1 you’ll notice that the moneyline is -300/+270 with our reduced margin wagering. If the moneyline is +260 or higher on the dog as it is here, this suggests that a favorite of -8.5 or less is a solid teaser candidate. If the dog moneyline drifts below +260, you might want to reconsider teasing that favorite.
If you have any questions on this article or on any other gambling topic, feel free to email me at askthebook@pinnaclesports.com and I’ll try to answer as many questions as possible in future columns.
Hopefully I haven’t jinxed myself by highlighting this season’s 66.66% win percentage where sharp action has shown for one side on our featured games, but take a look below to see if you agree with the early line movement.
LSU (-1) at Georgia
LSU has won 10 straight games after dropping its home opener to Tennessee. The key to LSU’s success has been its defense ranked 4th in the nation, which has allowed just 13.5 points per game. Currently ranked 3rd in the BCS standings, if LSU had not lost to Tennessee it would be in the national championship hunt, but a victory in the SEC Championship game will secure a BCS berth for the Tigers.
Georgia is 9-2 and ranked 13th in the country, led by an explosive offense averaging 405.5 yards per game when Shockley starts at QB. Georgia’s two losses were to Florida 14-10 without starter Shockley and 31-30 to Auburn.
We opened this at LSU Pk -115. The sharps played the Tigers early driving the line towards LSU -1.5. The public is definitely favoring the Bulldogs and opposing the sharps. With moderate action, we are fairly flat on this game.
Navy (-6) at Army
The winner of this rivalry wins the Commander In Chief’s trophy since both teams have already defeated Air Force. Navy has the #1 rushing offense in the country, averaging 286.7 rushing yards per game with its triple-option attack. Win or lose, Navy will play Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Army is riding momentum following four straight victories after starting 0-6. The Black Knights have not won the Commander In Chief trophy since 1996.
This is our highest volume game of the week thus far. We initially opened the game at Navy Pk -110. Early sharps quickly corrected our line within minutes to -3 -131. Money continued to come in on the Midshipmen until the line briefly spiked at Navy -8. We took some large hits from sharps at +8, +7.5 and +7 before the line settled at +6. We dislike games where the line moves this much due to the liability of a 7-point Navy win middling us.
UCLA (+21.5) at USC
UCLA’s QB Drew Olson has quietly racked up amazing stats including 30 TDs and just 3 INTs. Despite being 9-1 behind its potent offense, the Bruins’ defense has allowed over 30 points per game and 219.5 rush yds/game. This glaring weakness will be costly against Heisman candidate Reggie Bush, who averages 8.6 yards per carry. If UCLA cannot slow him down, expect this game to be a high-scoring blowout.
We opened the game at +25 but have seen the price driven down to as low as +20 for public favored UCLA. The sharps took USC at -20 to -21, forcing the line to stabilize around -21.5. We have four times as many wagers on the dog plus the points (which I would call the public side), but we are relatively flat due to the larger bet-size of the Trojan backers.
Houston (+9) at Baltimore
If you were wondering how bad Houston is, simply look at last week’s collapse. Up by 10 points with 34 seconds left in the 4th quarter, the Texans allowed a 43-yard TD pass, a successful onside kick leading to a game-tying field goal, and finally a 56-yard TD pass in overtime. It’s not surprising that Houston’s defense is ranked last for points allowed per game. In contrast, Baltimore’s defense is #7 in the league allowing only 287 yards per game.
Both teams’ offenses have suffered from allowing a large number of sacks – between the two teams, they’ve allowed 82 combined sacks. This, in part, explains why these two teams have the #29 and #31 point-scoring offenses
Opening the Ravens at -7, our early sharps took the favorite at -7 and -7.5 (buying down to 7). Rather than drift in a teaser’s “no-man’s land” of Baltimore -8/Houston +8, we moved to Houston +9 -117. While this price is similar to Houston +8 -108, it protects us on the teasers.

Current Events - Canadian Elections

Despite No Confidence Vote, Liberals Favored Over Conservatives
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 30, 2005)-After Monday's vote of
no-confidence brought an end to the 17-month reign of the ruling
Liberal
government, Canadian voters will head to the polls in January to decide
the future governance of the nation. With the sitting government
falling
for the first time since 1979 and possibly ending Paul Martin's hold on
Canadian politics, PinnacleSports.com today announced odds on the
outcome
of the upcoming election for control of the Canadian Parliament.
Despite being the first government to fall on a straight motion of
no-confidence, PinnacleSports.com lists the Liberals as favorites to
win
the most seats in the upcoming election at 2/5 odds. The Liberals have
also been made a 12.5 seat favorite over Stephen Harper's Conservatives
for the total seats won in January's vote. PinnacleSports.com has also
created unique over/under betting lines on the total number of seats
won
by each of the four major political parties. Although they held 133
seats
in Parliament after the last election, PinnacleSports.com believes that
recent government corruption and scandals will not go unpunished by the
electorate and lists the over/under on seats won by the Liberals at
only
120.5. The loss of Liberal MP's means potential gains for the other
political parties and the bookmaker predicts that the Conservatives
(over/under 107.5), Bloc Quebecois (over/under 60.5) and NDP
(over/under
29.5) will all gain seats in the House of Commons.
"After losing the parliamentary majority in June 2004, the public's
confidence in Paul Martin and the Liberal party has continued to wane
and
the no-confidence vote in Parliament seems to reflect widespread public
sentiment," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Despite all of the
recent controversy, the polls indicate that the Liberals will gain the
most seats in this historic election, but with little chance of gaining
an
overall majority."
In addition to offering betting on the Parliamentary seats won by the
parties, PinnacleSports.com has also posted odds on some of the key
ridings in the upcoming election. The oddsmakers currently list Liberal
Carolyn Bennett as a 10,000 vote favorite to win re-election in the
riding
of St. Paul's in Toronto over Conservative challenger Peter Kent. In
what
is certain to be one of the most closely watched votes, NDP party
leader
Jack Layton is favored by a mere 3,000 votes over Liberal Deborah Coyne
in
the Toronto-Danforth riding.
PinnacleSports.com will accept wagers on the Canadian Election until
the
vote on January 23, 2006. For more information and a complete list of
odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com
<http://www.pinnaclesports.com/> .
Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Which Party Will Win More Seats?
Liberals 2/5
Conservatives 12/5
Total Seats Won, Including All Recounts
Liberals -12.5 seats
Conservatives +12.5 seats
Total Seats Won By Liberals
Over 120.5 seats 11/10
Under 120.5 seats 5/6
Total Seats Won By Conservatives
Over 107.5 seats 5/6
Under 107.5 seats 11/10
Total Seats Won By Bloc Quebecois
Over 60.5 seats 1/1
Under 60.5 seats 10/11
Total Seats Won By NDP
Over 29.5 seats 10/11
Under 29.5 seats 1/1
St. Paul, Toronto Riding
Carolyn Bennett -10,000 votes
Peter Kent +10,000 votes
Toronto-Danforth Riding
Jack Layton -3,000 votes
Deborah Coyne +3,000 votes
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet's largest
sports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries
worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports
book
to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that
gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional
bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum
limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading
reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional
customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and
regulated in Curacao and the United Kingdom, the company offers a
secure
environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Sunday, November 20, 2005

PinnacleSports.com

Most of the guys I know were slow to embrace Off Shore Books.
They had their locals and Vegas in arms reach.
Putting up one to three dimes per play trust is a hard sell when your Off Shore.
I was one of the early Old School guys to convert, but not before several guys did it first and still kept the account small. That was quite awhile ago, now if anyone asked I'd say start with Pinnacle. I also use Neteller for fund transfer.

If you were to ask me what size bankroll is ideal ? I would ask you how much can you afford to lose? But if your a begginer I recommend $500 to $1000.00 and play $5 to $10 unit. If you're getting little serious $10,000 and play $100 unit.
You want to be a dime player? $100K is the bankroll and ofcourse you should have multiple accounts.

Keep in mind the total number of games to be played in a given sport.
I've found apporximately 30% of these games will provide edge to a player with speculation skills. Good place to hone your skill is to study the Sportbook and one of the best is Pinnacle. If your interested in opening a account your first should be Pinnacle. Look at the juice, Look at the lines, they payout immediately and lines come out early. Bonus is nice, but the meat of the deal is the juice and lines.

Here's some info.
www.PinnacleSports.com
Transaction Information
Deposit Methods:
Bank Wire
Cashiers Check (USD and CAD only)
Credit and Debit Card
Neteller and NETeller InstaCASH
INSTADEBIT (For USD only)
WebMoney (For USD and EURO only)
Moneybookers
Solo/Switch Debit Card (For GBP only)
Visa Electron Debit Card (For GBP only)
Minimum Initial Deposit: $50 or equivalent in other currencies.
Maximum Deposit: $5,000 per 30 day period, using credit card on line.
$400 USD per day using INSTADEBIT
Deposit Transfer fees:
Bank Wire: $1000 or more None
Cashiers Check: $1000 or more None
Credit or Debit Card: None
Neteller: None Neteller InstaCASH: 5% of Deposit Amount
INSTADEBIT: None
WebMoney: None
Moneybookers: None
Solo/Switch Debit Card: None
Visa Electron Debit Card: None
Withdrawal Methods & processing time:
Checks via Federal Express; requests sent to the bank the next day and the checks are sent the following day. Clients receive an email with the Federal Express tracking number.
Bank Wires; sent the next day
Neteller; within minutes
INSTADEBIT, within minutes
WebMoney; within minutes
Moneybookers; within minutes
Withdrawal Limit: One check per day of $50,000 USD or equivalent.
WebMoney maximum withdrawal of $25,000 per month
Withdrawal Transfer fees:
Bank Wire: One free payout per month for $1000 (or the equivalent) or more; $25 (or the equivalent) flat fee for additional withdrawals or any withdrawals less than $1000.
Cashiers Check: One free payout per month for $1000 (or the equivalent) or more; $25 (or the equivalent) flat fee for additional withdrawals or any withdrawals less than $1000.
Neteller: One free payout per month for $500 or more; $15 fee for less than $500 or for more than one payout per month.
INSTADEBIT: One free payout per month for $500 or more; $15 fee for less than $500 or for more than one payout per month.
WebMoney: There is one free withdrawal of $500 or more per calendar month. Withdrawals for less than $500, or additional withdrawals in the same calendar month for any amount incur a fee of $15.
Moneybookers: One free payout per month for $500 or more; $15 fee for less than $500 or for more than one payout per month.
Commission or Tax Charges: No tax or commission is charged directly by Pinnacle Sports.
Betting Information:
Ways to place a Bet: Internet & phone. Phone wagers are governed by phone client rules. Minimum play is $100 and there is no reduced pricing.
Minimum Bet: Online USD$1 or equivalent in other currencies
Maximum Bet: Our General Limits are posted here in USD$: Limits. Exact limits are posted in each client’s account.
Maximum Win: Limits on Soccer accumulator wins & maximum horse payouts.
Odds Format: Decimal and American Pricing. The client may choose either display.
Company/ Account Information:
Account currencies:
Australian Dollar
Canadian Dollar
Danish Krone
EURO
Hong Kong Dollar
Japanese Yen
Malaysian Ringgit
New Zealand Dollar
Norwegian Kroner
Pounds Sterling
Singapore Dollar
Swedish Krona
Thailand Baht
Taiwan Dollar
US Dollar
Languages you can view the site in:
English
Chinese (simplified and Traditional)
Finnish
German
Greek
Hebrew
Italian
Japanese
Portuguese
Spanish
Russian
Swedish
Thai
Customer Service: 24 hours per day/ 7 days a week. E-mail Only. Responses are generally provided within 15 minutes.
E-mail contact:
http://us.f536.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=csd@pinnaclesports.com (Customer Service Department)
http://us.f536.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=crd@pinnaclesports.com (New Account Information)
Bonus: 10% Initial Cash Bonus (up to $500) for all Internet accounts that start with $250 or more, in conjunction with the ultra-competitive prices on our Website. For example, Pinnacle Sports is offering the best lines anywhere on Soccer Handicaps, less than a ten point margin the day of the match. Our website www.pinnaclesports.com offers the best prices on most sports; an unbeatable value, 24/7. This represents a better value than any bonus or other signup incentive that can be offered.
Casino: Pinnacle Sports is known for outstanding value on sports and our casino is no different – we offer 0.3% cash back – on every bet, meaning our payout levels are amongst the best in the industry.
Pinnacle Sports' Cash Rebate program settles at the end of every day putting 0.3% of your bets win or lose back into your Pinnacle account. This is an absolute "Unbeatable Value".
Can you choose your password when registering with the site? : Yes
Location Head Office: Pinnacle Sports Worldwide, Second Floor, c/o Holiday Beach Hotel & Casino, Pater Euwensweg # 31, CuraƧao, Netherlands Antilles.