Pinnacle Pulse

The Pinnacle PulseThe Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleOn behalf of Pinnacle Sports, I’d like to wish everyone Happy Holidays!With all the festivities it might seem like a natural time for a break,but taking the holidays off completely might mean missing some greatfootball betting opportunities. While college football can be profitable,betting on NCAA Bowl Games can be even more lucrative, but there are a fewextra factors to consider at this time of the year.One of the most significant changes to bowl season play occurs due togrades as players become academically ineligible. Several teams will loseone or more players due to academic problems. Players are occasionallysuspended for rules violations as well and these suspensions occur withhigher frequency over a Thanksgiving or Christmas break. Significantsuspensions will be listed on Don Best and the Pinnacle Sports bettingline will usually adjust after Don Best makes an announcement.One way to get an edge is to research the teams yourself and find theinformation before Don Best makes an announcement. Local newspapers oftenannounce suspensions days before it gets picked up by the public orreleased by an injury announcement service. With an increasing number ofuniversities putting their student-run newspapers online, another goodsource is a college’s own newspaper. Together with injury information, youcan adjust both your analysis of a game or make a “quick hit” on a scalpor middle.If you stumble across a key injury or a situation where many players aresuspended, you can count on the line moving substantially. Whether or notyou have an opinion on a game, fade the team with suspensions. Once thepublic is informed of a suspension (and the line reacts accordingly) youcan take back the other side for a middle.At PinnacleSports.com there’s also the option to sell several half-pointsand play a scalp. For example, assume you were studying a theoretical TeamRed vs. Team Blue game. Local news showed that two of Team Red’s startingcornerbacks were placed on academic probation. You immediately play TeamBlue -3 -104. After the news on the cornerbacks is disseminated and thepublic is given time to react, the line drifts up to Team Blue -4.5 -109.You could either play the middle, or take Team Red +3 +109 by sellingthree half-points to make a guaranteed profit!Another area you can exploit during Bowl Season is the public’s propensityto overreact to weather. If the weather report calls for snow or rain,public bettors will consistently play the under. If there is a bona fidehurricane or blizzard that will hit the game, the public are right to playthe under. However if there’s only light rain or snow expected to fallbefore or during the game, this will not have the impact that underbettors are paying for. Unless weather conditions are truly horrendous,the right play is to fade the public on any total that moves 3 or morepoints due to weather.An additional piece of information that is both fascinating and dangerousis how large underdogs have performed in Bowl games. Double-digitunderdogs in Bowl games have hit at almost a 60% clip for many years. Froma psychological angle, the underdog is in a prime position – it hasnothing to lose and everything to gain. After having a month to prepare,both teams have time to adapt their game plans extensively which usuallymakes for a closer game than many expect. So why is this knowledgedangerous for the bettor? Like any trend, the market correctsinaccuracies. More and more players blindly play the large dogs and thesebettors will continue to do so until the betting market corrects itself.Consider these factors when you look at the line movements on these games:California (-7.5) vs. BYU (Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl)These two teams are headed in opposite directions. California started hotat 5-0 but then dropped 4 of its last 6 games to finish at 7-4 as theGolden Bears’ passing game has struggled under QB Joseph Ayoob. Afterlimping to a 1-3 start, BYU turned it around and won 5 of its last 7. TheCougars’ first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall has built an offense around QBJohn Beck, who had 3,357 passing yards and a passer rating of 138.1.Our opener of Cal -7 -105 was ignored by the sharps. The public likesCalifornia, with 80% of the bettors backing the Golden Bears. Public moneyhas forced the line to creep up to Cal -7.5 -105. Sad though it is, thisis our highest-volume NCAA Bowl game so far this week.Navy (-2.5) vs. Colorado St. (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)Navy enters this game with the nation’s #1 rushing offense, averaging305.9 yards per game. Colorado St., on the other hand, allows over 200rushing yards per game. Despite the amount of rushing, Navy games tend tobe high scoring averaging 55 points per game. The Rams offense is just theopposite – it relies on a pass-heavy attack led by QB Justin Holland. In2005 he completed over 62% of his passes for 2,804 yards, and had a 143passer rating.When comparing stats between teams, you should be acutely aware of thestrength of schedule for each team. According to Sagarin ratings, ColoradoState’s strength of schedule was the 58th most difficult among Div I-Aschools, compared to Navy’s rating of 102nd. This strongly suggests oneshould adjust Navy’s stats downward when analyzing this game.We occasionally have a “sharp vs. public” game and this is one of them.The wise guys are solidly on Colorado St. The public is favoring theMidshipmen by a 3:1 ratio. Despite the public backing, we are relativelyflat due to the larger average bet-size of the sharps.NY Giants (+3) at WashingtonBehind Tiki Barber’s 220 yards rushing last weekend, the Giants knockedoff the Chiefs 27-17 and closed to within one game of winning itsdivision. Part of the Giants’ success has been a consistent running game,averaging 146 yards/game. The Giants can clinch the division with a winhere, or with a win next weekend at Oakland.Washington has won three straight games and will advance to the playoffsif it wins its last two. Due to its 8-2 NFC record, Washington can alsosecure a wildcard with a win over New York combined with losses by Dallas,Minnesota and Atlanta this week.We opened at Washington -3 -107, and took a few early sharp hits on theRedskins. As the line crept up, we saw sharp opposition on the Giants at+3 +112. Given the price each took, both sharp positions are “correct”. Thus far, this has been our highest volume game of the week. The publicfavors the Giants and we are presently taking twice as many bets on them.Minnesota (+2.5) at BaltimoreAfter winning six of its last seven, Minnesota is in contention for awildcard spot, but they need to win tough games against Baltimore andChicago. Finishing at 9-7 would probably still not be enough; the NFCconference record is the tiebreaker in most cases with 3+ teams tied for awildcard spot. With a current NFC record of 7-4, the Vikings would beselected after Washington (8-2) and Tampa Bay/Carolina (both at 7-3).We initially opened this game at Minnesota -1 -112. The sharps wereunanimous in backing Baltimore even before the Monday night 48-3 blowoutof the Packers. The sharps mostly got their bets in on Baltimore as asmall dog, playing the Ravens down to -1 -114. After the Monday Night gamethe public followed the sharps, driving the price up to Baltimore -2.5-113. We have accepted three bets on Baltimore for every one on Minnesota.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Line From PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
The talk of this NFL season has been how the Indianapolis Colts have
dominated their opponents on their way to an astounding 12-0 start.
Only
the 1972 Dolphins have finished with an unblemished regular season
record
and no team has gone undefeated since the schedule was expanded to 16
regular season games. With this in mind, one has to wonder what the
chances are that Indianapolis will win out its last 4 games.
Next up on the schedule are the Jacksonville Jaguars, the only team to
have a second-half lead against the Colts. In their first meeting,
Jacksonville was up 3-0 before losing 10-3. The moneyline on this game
at
Pinnacle Sports is -316/+296, which suggests that Indy will win this
match-up 74.7% (306/406) of the time.
At 12-0, Indianapolis has already clinched a playoff spot and if they
defeat the Jaguars, the Colts will also secure home field advantage
throughout the playoffs. This adds a new twist to the equation: Will
Coach
Tony Dungy rest his key players? When interviewed, he was unsure. A
quarterback has about a 1 in 16 chance of getting injured if he plays a
full game. For this reason, it’s common for playoff-bound teams in
meaningless games to rest key starters. Despite Dungy’s ambiguous
answers
to questions on resting players, I think he’ll maintain his focus on
winning the Super Bowl.
If they reach 13-0, the Colts would then host the Chargers with home
field
advantage locked up. If this game were played two weeks earlier, the
Colts
would be about an 11-point favorite (-830/+750). In that scenario, Indy
would win about 88.7% of the time. In past seasons, the lines have
adjusted about 6 points for teams in “rest situations”, but the resting
teams have done poorly against the spread. I believe we are therefore
likely to see an 8-point spread adjustment, so resting most starters
would
change the line to Colts -3 (-150/+140), suggesting Indy would win 59%.
Beating San Diego would make Indianapolis 14-0, and they would next
visit
Seattle. The Seahawks have already won their division and would likely
be
playing for home field advantage. If neither team were resting, the
visiting Colts would be about 4-point favorites. Assuming the Colts nap
and the Seahawks don’t also take the afternoon off, the adjusted line
would be Seahawks -4 (-185/+175). In either case, the 4-point favorite
should win about 64% of the time.
Should the Colts be 15-0 heading into the final week of the season,
they
would be heavy favorites at home versus Arizona. Super Bowl aspirations
aside, I’m not sure Coach Dungy could rest his players at home against
a
cakewalk opponent with history on the line. If the Colts played full
strength, this line would be about -18 with a greater home field
advantage
than normal. Resting would still make the Colts a solid 10-point
favorite.
The Colts will win 94% if they don’t rest, or 87% if they do.
In conclusion: if Indy chooses to rest its players, I calculate the
chances of them going 16-0 as:
(0.747) (0.59) (0.36) (0.87) = 13.8%, or -654 (No) / +594 (yes).
However if Indy plays for history, the odds of going 16-0 adjust to:
(.747)(.887)(.64)(.94) = 40%, or -155 (No) / +145 (Yes).
Do you have an opinion on whether Indy will finish 16-0? Have you read
something I’ve missed about Tony Dungy’s willingness to risk injuries
to
Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison while chasing a
perfect
regular season record? Or do you have some other insight? You can bet
your
opinion at PinnacleSports.com as we are now offering odds on the prop:
Will Indy go 16-0?
Yes +146
No -164
We have also seen interesting line movement on Indy’s AFC South
match-up
against the Jags this week as well as on the following games listed
below.
Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville
With starting Jaguar QB Byron Leftwich out for another few weeks, the
Jags
will once again rely on replacement David Garrard. He led Jacksonville
to
victory against Arizona and Cleveland, but faces a much stiffer test
against the third-ranked defense of the Colts. A win for Jacksonville
locks up a wildcard position, whereas an Indy victory in any of its
last 4
games will secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
We opened the game at Colts -7. Indy is clearly a public team and we
are
taking four times as many bets on them as the Jaguars. The sharps seem
split on this game with some playing Indy at -7 and significantly more
on
Jacksonville at +7.5.
Chicago (+6) at Pittsburgh
The Bears have relied heavily on defense during their current 8-game
win
streak by holding opponents to 8.5 points per game, picking off 10
interceptions with 337 interception-return yards and scoring 3 TDs. Not
surprisingly, quarterback Kyle Orton has been part of a very
conservative,
run-based offense that minimizes mistakes, but only generates 16.8
points
per game.
Pittsburgh also boasts an above-average defense allowing less than 19
points per game. With Roethlisberger starting, the Steeler offense has
been productive with 337 yards per game. Unless the Chicago defense can
score or generate several turnovers, a more balanced Pittsburgh team is
the favorite to prevail.
This has been our highest volume game of the week thus far. We opened
this
game at Chicago +4 and took several early hits from sharps on
Pittsburgh.
The market price has crept up since until it topped off at +5.5 and +6.
At
this price, we are seeing the professional players side with Chicago.
New England (-3) at Buffalo
At 7-5, a New England victory would be enough to clinch the mediocre
AFC
East division (whose other three teams are a combined 11-25). The Bills
at
4-8, can still mathematically win the division by winning out the
season
and there are also a few scenarios where a 7-9 team could still win the
division.
We opened this game at -3 -125. While the public is favoring the
Patriots, there is dissent among the sharps. A majority of the pros are
taking Buffalo +3 +115, while a few are favoring New England -3
whenever
the price drifts to -115 or better.
And now for something completely different…
Miss World Finals
Over 100 of the most beautiful women on earth will gather in Sanya,
China
this Saturday to compete for the title of Miss World 2005. I can only
think that our red blooded odds makers have had way too much time on
their
hands this week, as they have created individual odds on over 40
contestants to win the Miss World title. Believe it or not, we have
seen a
very strong move and sharp money show for Miss Philippines, where our
opener of +2000 was driven down to +500.
We also originally offered Miss Namibia at +1000 to advance to the
finals
of Miss World. Knowledgeable sharps with an eye for the ladies have
also
pounded this number down to -500.