The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Exploring the Opportunities of Alternate NFL Lines & Smaller Markets
It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the sheer number of offerings at the Pinnacle Sportsbook. For football alone, bettors have the choice of nearly 30 markets, including halftimes, quarters, props and futures for several different leagues including the NFL, NCAA, CFL and even the CIS Vanier Cup. Many players staunchly ignore everything except vanilla sides and totals markets. While these players are certainly saving money by taking advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbetting’s -104 reduced juice, they’re also missing out on some potentially profitable alternative markets.
Armed with reduced juice, smart bettors are in a position take on the familiar NFL offerings, but smaller markets like NFL Alternate Spreads and NCAA Div-IAA sides, can be even easier to pillage with low vig. While the wise guys are pounding bigger markets into shape, these less-played promotions remain less efficient, and are ideal prey for smaller players.
In the NFL, Pinnacle Sports offers betting on four different sets of alternate lines: alternate low, alternate high, extra low and extra high. These lines use spreads far removed from the normal line that you cannot reach via the unique drop-down buy/sell menu at the Pinnacle Sports book. For example, if the line for Chicago was -2 ½ (-115), we might also offer the Bears at -7.5 (+230), +3.5 (-230), -10.5 (+320) and +7.5 (-385).
While you can handicap and play alternate lines just like a normal line, there are a few situations when they may be vastly superior to the standard spread. There are two factors that make getting extra points by paying more juice advantageous: (1) when the team you are backing is very consistent, or (2) when the game total is low.
(1) If you have a match-up between two defensive teams that run the ball (like San Diego, Dallas or Jacksonville), the game is more likely to land near the spread, making those extra points you bought more valuable than in a regular game.
(2) When should you play the long shot, giving up more points for a high-paying moneyline? Look for games with high totals, or a match-up between two teams that play inconsistently – especially pass-oriented offenses. In match-ups of teams like Miami, Arizona and Pittsburgh, they’re as likely to win or lose by a high margin in a mismatch. Giving up extra points for a higher payout is a good way to cash in on the volatility of inconsistent teams.
Rich pickings can also be found betting the smaller leagues offered at Pinnacle Sports betting. With over 120 Div-IAA sides, the linesmakers at Pinnacle Sportsbetting simply don’t have the time to analyze each game and team in-depth. Shrewd handicappers focus on a favorite conference like the Ivy League, which gives them an advantage over the house. If you’re a specialist in one conference and know the players, coaches, playing styles, injuries and suspensions for all the teams in that conference, you have invaluable insight on match-ups featuring those teams that bookmakers like PinnacleSports.com, simply do not.
What are our players betting now?
Clemson -17 -108 v. N.C. State
The Tigers opened at -13 -105 and quickly became a public favorite. The sharps didn’t have a clear opinion on this game and the public kept betting Clemson up. While N.C. State has a mere 3-6 record, most of their games have been very competitive – only one loss was by more than eight points.
Wake Forest +8.5 +101 v. Florida State
Every once in awhile, we look at one of our openers and wince at the lopsided action. This happened after we opened the Seminoles at -3.5 -105 and the early sharps played FSU. Fortunately, we can get a good line fairly cheaply due to our lower limits earlier in the week. Once the line stabilized, we are still seeing sharps on Florida State, while the public is strongly on Wake Forest.
New Orleans +4 -102 v. Pittsburgh
The Saints opened as a 6-point underdog, and were quickly bet down by the public. We took two bets on the Saints for every one on the Steelers. Despite the public sentiment, the sharps are evenly split on this game with no change of opinion of note as the line dropped.
Chicago +3 -125 v. New York
We opened the Bears at -1 -112, and took a storm of public money. After Chicago became an underdog at +2.5 and +3, the sharps started lining up on the Bears. The public is quick to react to a single disappointing performance, and seems to have forgotten that the Bears have the greatest points scored differential in the NFL, outscoring their opponents by an average of 16.8 points per game.
Denver/Oakland Over 33 -105
The Raiders have an unusual combination that often makes playing the "Under" very tempting. In their eight games this year, they have only scored six offensive touchdowns. They are the worst team in the NFL for offensive yardage at 228 yards per game and points scored with 11.5 per game. But… Oakland has the #2 passing defense, allowing just 160 passing yards per game. Taken together with a match-up against a strong Broncos defense, it’s no surprise that this is the week’s lowest totaled game. Our opener of 37 took hits mainly from sharps playing the under.
"Stranger than Fiction" under $14 million -140
Since you never know what will catch a player’s fancy we like to experiment with new markets. Case in point is our opening three day weekend box office propositions. The movie market on the opening weekend success of "Stranger than Fiction", drew a lot of interest and brought in moderate balanced action. We opened at $14.5m -108, and the price has drifted down due to the opinions of our "movie sharps". If anyone has good data on buy/sell costs of 0.5 million for movie openers, please write me at askthebook@pinnaclesports.com.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
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Thursday, November 09, 2006
Colts remain Undefeated
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Pinnaclesports.com Posts odds on colts undefeated season
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 9, 2006)—After beating New England Sunday night, the Indianapolis Colts remain the only undefeated team in the NFL at the season’s midpoint. Now that Peyton Manning and the Colts have beaten their nemesis, talk of Indianapolis challenging the 1972 Dolphins as the only team to finish the regular season unbeaten has gathered pace. With the Colts inching closer to making history, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds on Indianapolis finishing undefeated as well as odds on when the team will suffer its first loss, if at all.
The largest spots betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com originally opened odds on the Colts finishing a perfect 16-0 at odds of 20/1 and become the first team since the 1972 Dolphins to finish with an unblemished regular season record. Now that Indianapolis have survived difficult road games against the Broncos and Patriots, the odds on Manning and the Colts finishing with a perfect season stands at just 6/1. The odds that Indy will simply be another team unable to match the record-holding Dolphins stand as a 1/7 favorite.
In addition to posting odds on the Colts going undefeated in the regular season, PinnacleSports.com has calculated odds on which of Indy’s remaining eight games will see the team’s first loss. The oddsmakers currently list the Colts’ trip to Dallas on November 19th as a 2/1 favorite to become Indianapolis’ first regular season loss. Other teams most likely to deal the Colts their first loss in 2006 include Buffalo (5/1), Philadelphia (6/1) and Jacksonville (7/1).
"While no NFL team has finished with an undefeated season in 34 years, the Colts have already overcome their major roadblocks en route to finishing a perfect 16-0 this year. Indianapolis has survived trips to Denver and New England and faces only one team in their final eight games that currently owns a better than .500 record (Jacksonville)," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "With their remaining opponents holding a combined 26-38 record, Indianapolis going undefeated at 6/1 represents unprecedented value to bettors. Of course things could get very interesting on the season’s final day if the disappointing Dolphins are the final obstacle standing in the way of the Colts matching Miami’s perfect, 1972 season."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Will The Indianapolis Colts Finish 16-0 In The Regular Season?
Yes 6/1
No 1/7
When Will The Colts Suffer Their First Regular Season Loss?
Nov 12th vs. Buffalo 5/1
Nov 19th @ Dallas 2/1
Nov 26th vs. Philadelphia 6/1
Dec 3rd @ Tennessee 17/1
Dec 10th @ Jacksonville 7/1
Dec 18th vs Cincinnati 12/1
Dec 24th @ Houston 41/1
Dec 31st vs. Miami 26/1
Colts Finish 16-0 6/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Pinnaclesports.com Posts odds on colts undefeated season
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 9, 2006)—After beating New England Sunday night, the Indianapolis Colts remain the only undefeated team in the NFL at the season’s midpoint. Now that Peyton Manning and the Colts have beaten their nemesis, talk of Indianapolis challenging the 1972 Dolphins as the only team to finish the regular season unbeaten has gathered pace. With the Colts inching closer to making history, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds on Indianapolis finishing undefeated as well as odds on when the team will suffer its first loss, if at all.
The largest spots betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com originally opened odds on the Colts finishing a perfect 16-0 at odds of 20/1 and become the first team since the 1972 Dolphins to finish with an unblemished regular season record. Now that Indianapolis have survived difficult road games against the Broncos and Patriots, the odds on Manning and the Colts finishing with a perfect season stands at just 6/1. The odds that Indy will simply be another team unable to match the record-holding Dolphins stand as a 1/7 favorite.
In addition to posting odds on the Colts going undefeated in the regular season, PinnacleSports.com has calculated odds on which of Indy’s remaining eight games will see the team’s first loss. The oddsmakers currently list the Colts’ trip to Dallas on November 19th as a 2/1 favorite to become Indianapolis’ first regular season loss. Other teams most likely to deal the Colts their first loss in 2006 include Buffalo (5/1), Philadelphia (6/1) and Jacksonville (7/1).
"While no NFL team has finished with an undefeated season in 34 years, the Colts have already overcome their major roadblocks en route to finishing a perfect 16-0 this year. Indianapolis has survived trips to Denver and New England and faces only one team in their final eight games that currently owns a better than .500 record (Jacksonville)," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "With their remaining opponents holding a combined 26-38 record, Indianapolis going undefeated at 6/1 represents unprecedented value to bettors. Of course things could get very interesting on the season’s final day if the disappointing Dolphins are the final obstacle standing in the way of the Colts matching Miami’s perfect, 1972 season."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Will The Indianapolis Colts Finish 16-0 In The Regular Season?
Yes 6/1
No 1/7
When Will The Colts Suffer Their First Regular Season Loss?
Nov 12th vs. Buffalo 5/1
Nov 19th @ Dallas 2/1
Nov 26th vs. Philadelphia 6/1
Dec 3rd @ Tennessee 17/1
Dec 10th @ Jacksonville 7/1
Dec 18th vs Cincinnati 12/1
Dec 24th @ Houston 41/1
Dec 31st vs. Miami 26/1
Colts Finish 16-0 6/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Dancing with the Stars
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Emmitt Smith favorite to win Dancing With THe Stars At PinnacleSports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 9, 2006)—After two months of competition, ABC’s hit show "Dancing With The Stars" has reached its grand finale with only two celebrity teams remaining in the competition. After Wednesday’s elimination of Joey Lawrence, the celebrity dance contest is down to former teen heartthrob Mario Lopez versus the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith. With the "Saved By The Bell" star Lopez and Dallas Cowboy great Smith performing their final routines next week, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on who’ll win "Dancing With The Stars".
The Internet’s largest sports betting site, PinnacleSports.com was the first bookmaker to post odds on "Dancing With The Stars". Throughout the series, Mario Lopez had been the favorite to win the competition, but now bettors have now put their support behind Emmitt Smith in the past week vaulting him into favorite status and dropping his odds to win the competition to 4/5 (i.e., win $4 for every $5 bet). As the series heads into its final week, PinnacleSports.com now lists Lopez as the underdog to be crowned the next dance champion at 11/10 odds. As recently as two weeks ago when only four competitors remained, PinnacleSports.com listed Lopez a 5/6 favorite to win the celebrity dance-off, while Emmitt Smith had the second best odds at 7/4.
"We initially saw support for Emmitt Smith begin to swell in the last week when we received several $300 maximum limit bets on the former Super Bowl winner," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Although customers weren’t backing him nearly as much as when betting opened, Lopez remained our favorite to win Dancing With The Stars until recently mainly because of his superior dancing skills. While he may not have the better moves of the two finalists, Emmitt Smith certainly has the charisma to win over America’s vote and add the dancing crown to his three Super Bowl rings."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win Dancing With The Stars
Contestant
Current Odds
Opening Odds
Emmitt Smith
4/5
14/1
Mario Lopez
11/10
3/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Emmitt Smith favorite to win Dancing With THe Stars At PinnacleSports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 9, 2006)—After two months of competition, ABC’s hit show "Dancing With The Stars" has reached its grand finale with only two celebrity teams remaining in the competition. After Wednesday’s elimination of Joey Lawrence, the celebrity dance contest is down to former teen heartthrob Mario Lopez versus the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith. With the "Saved By The Bell" star Lopez and Dallas Cowboy great Smith performing their final routines next week, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on who’ll win "Dancing With The Stars".
The Internet’s largest sports betting site, PinnacleSports.com was the first bookmaker to post odds on "Dancing With The Stars". Throughout the series, Mario Lopez had been the favorite to win the competition, but now bettors have now put their support behind Emmitt Smith in the past week vaulting him into favorite status and dropping his odds to win the competition to 4/5 (i.e., win $4 for every $5 bet). As the series heads into its final week, PinnacleSports.com now lists Lopez as the underdog to be crowned the next dance champion at 11/10 odds. As recently as two weeks ago when only four competitors remained, PinnacleSports.com listed Lopez a 5/6 favorite to win the celebrity dance-off, while Emmitt Smith had the second best odds at 7/4.
"We initially saw support for Emmitt Smith begin to swell in the last week when we received several $300 maximum limit bets on the former Super Bowl winner," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Although customers weren’t backing him nearly as much as when betting opened, Lopez remained our favorite to win Dancing With The Stars until recently mainly because of his superior dancing skills. While he may not have the better moves of the two finalists, Emmitt Smith certainly has the charisma to win over America’s vote and add the dancing crown to his three Super Bowl rings."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win Dancing With The Stars
Contestant
Current Odds
Opening Odds
Emmitt Smith
4/5
14/1
Mario Lopez
11/10
3/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
For Immediate Release
Odds On Dancing With THe Stars "Final Four"
Mario Lopez Remains Favorite At PinnacleSports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 30, 2006)—After nearly two months, ABC’s hit show "Dancing With The Stars" has hit the home stretch as only four celebrity teams remain in the competition. In the next two weeks, Mario Lopez, Emmitt Smith, Monique Coleman and Joey Lawrence and their professional partners will try to impress the television audience and judges with various dance routines. With the hit reality show nearing its finale, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on who’ll win "Dancing With The Stars".
The first bookmaker to post odds on "Dancing With The Stars," PinnacleSports.com has updated betting lines on the show’s finale and continues to list former teen heartthrob, Mario Lopez as the favorite to win the show. After originally opening at 3/1 odds to win the competition in August, the former "Saved By The Bell" star has seen the most backing from bettors as he’s waltzed his way through the competition and is now a 5/6 favorite to win it all. Showing that his quick footwork on the gridiron has translated onto the dance floor, PinnacleSports.com lists the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith at 7/4 odds to add the reality show title to his collection of Super Bowl rings. The only remaining female on the show, Monique Coleman is currently a 9/1 long shot to emerge as the next dancing star, along with former child star Joey Lawrence.
"Mario Lopez has been the favorite to win Dancing With The Stars among our bettors since the celebrity competitors were first announced in August," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "While Lopez has shown that he’s clearly the best dancer among the contestants, his chances may be hurt by Emmitt Smith’s popularity and potentially splitting votes with fellow teen heartthrob Joey Lawrence."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win Dancing With The Stars
Contestant
Current Odds
Opening Odds
Mario Lopez
5/6
3/1
Emmitt Smith
7/4
14/1
Monique Coleman
9/1
9/2
Joey Lawrence
9/1
6/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Mario Lopez Remains Favorite At PinnacleSports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 30, 2006)—After nearly two months, ABC’s hit show "Dancing With The Stars" has hit the home stretch as only four celebrity teams remain in the competition. In the next two weeks, Mario Lopez, Emmitt Smith, Monique Coleman and Joey Lawrence and their professional partners will try to impress the television audience and judges with various dance routines. With the hit reality show nearing its finale, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on who’ll win "Dancing With The Stars".
The first bookmaker to post odds on "Dancing With The Stars," PinnacleSports.com has updated betting lines on the show’s finale and continues to list former teen heartthrob, Mario Lopez as the favorite to win the show. After originally opening at 3/1 odds to win the competition in August, the former "Saved By The Bell" star has seen the most backing from bettors as he’s waltzed his way through the competition and is now a 5/6 favorite to win it all. Showing that his quick footwork on the gridiron has translated onto the dance floor, PinnacleSports.com lists the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith at 7/4 odds to add the reality show title to his collection of Super Bowl rings. The only remaining female on the show, Monique Coleman is currently a 9/1 long shot to emerge as the next dancing star, along with former child star Joey Lawrence.
"Mario Lopez has been the favorite to win Dancing With The Stars among our bettors since the celebrity competitors were first announced in August," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "While Lopez has shown that he’s clearly the best dancer among the contestants, his chances may be hurt by Emmitt Smith’s popularity and potentially splitting votes with fellow teen heartthrob Joey Lawrence."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win Dancing With The Stars
Contestant
Current Odds
Opening Odds
Mario Lopez
5/6
3/1
Emmitt Smith
7/4
14/1
Monique Coleman
9/1
9/2
Joey Lawrence
9/1
6/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Immediate Release from Pinnacle
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
dallas Mavericks favored to win 2007 nba championship
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds To Win NBA Title
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 24, 2006)—With tip-off of the 2006-07 basketball season taking place next week, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on all 30 NBA teams winning the league championship. The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com currently lists Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks as a 4/1 favorite to avenge last year’s loss in the NBA Finals and capture the franchise’s first ever championship.
With Amare Stoudemire returning to the lineup along side reigning two-time league MVP Steve Nash, the Phoenix Suns should be even more explosive this year and are currently listed at 11/2 to win the NBA title. Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs begin the season attempting to become the next NBA dynasty and are also listed at 11/2 to win their third championship in five years. Although they return nearly every key player from last year’s team, Dwayne Wade, Shaquille O’Neal and the rest of the reigning NBA champion Miami Heat are listed at just 6/1 to repeat this season. PinnacleSports.com believes that the New Jersey Nets (9/1), led by the trio of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, will emerge as solid title contenders from the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the sportsbook lists LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers at 10/1 to ascend to the NBA throne, while the Detroit Pistons are 11/1 to bring a title back to Motown.
After landing four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace in the offseason, the Chicago Bulls (19/1) mix of young talent and veteran leadership should help make them a contender in ’07. While not in the limelight like the Lakers, the LA Clippers (22/1) were Hollywood’s best team last year and are poised to make another playoff run. The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming will help return the Houston Rockets (24/1) to the playoff caliber team they were in 2004-05. Playoff teams a year ago, Washington Wizards (43/1), Sacremento Kings (49/1), Denver Nuggets (51/1), Indiana Pacers (64/1), Los Angeles Lakers (67/1) and Memphis Grizzlies (75/1) are on the outside looking in at the top title contenders according to the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com.
Although there are hopes in the Big Apple that the Knicks will improve on last season’s pitiful 23-win campaign, PinnacleSports.com lists New York as huge 300/1 long shots to win the championship this year. The hopes appear even dimmer for the Portland Trailblazers and Charlotte Bobcats, who are both listed at 500/1 to win the NBA title at PinnacleSports.com.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win 2007 NBA Championship
Dallas Mavericks 4/1
Phoenix Suns 11/2
San Antonio Spurs 11/2
Miami Heat 6/1
New Jersey Nets 9/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 10/1
Detroit Pistons 11/1
Chicago Bulls 19/1
Los Angeles Clippers 22/1
Houston Rockets 24/1
Washington Wizards 43/1
Sacramento Kings 49/1
Denver Nuggets 51/1
Indiana Pacers 64/1
Los Angeles Lakers 67/1
Memphis Grizzlies 75/1
Seattle Supersonics 75/1
Golden State Warriors 75/1
Boston Celtics 75/1
Utah Jazz 75/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 87/1
Atlanta Hawks 87/1
Milwaukee Bucks 90/1
N.O/Oklahoma City Hornets 90/1
Toronto Raptors 109/1
Philadelphia 76ers 130/1
Orlando Magic 150/1
New York Knicks 300/1
Portland Trailblazers 500/1
Charlotte Bobcats 500/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
dallas Mavericks favored to win 2007 nba championship
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds To Win NBA Title
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 24, 2006)—With tip-off of the 2006-07 basketball season taking place next week, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on all 30 NBA teams winning the league championship. The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com currently lists Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks as a 4/1 favorite to avenge last year’s loss in the NBA Finals and capture the franchise’s first ever championship.
With Amare Stoudemire returning to the lineup along side reigning two-time league MVP Steve Nash, the Phoenix Suns should be even more explosive this year and are currently listed at 11/2 to win the NBA title. Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs begin the season attempting to become the next NBA dynasty and are also listed at 11/2 to win their third championship in five years. Although they return nearly every key player from last year’s team, Dwayne Wade, Shaquille O’Neal and the rest of the reigning NBA champion Miami Heat are listed at just 6/1 to repeat this season. PinnacleSports.com believes that the New Jersey Nets (9/1), led by the trio of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, will emerge as solid title contenders from the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the sportsbook lists LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers at 10/1 to ascend to the NBA throne, while the Detroit Pistons are 11/1 to bring a title back to Motown.
After landing four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace in the offseason, the Chicago Bulls (19/1) mix of young talent and veteran leadership should help make them a contender in ’07. While not in the limelight like the Lakers, the LA Clippers (22/1) were Hollywood’s best team last year and are poised to make another playoff run. The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming will help return the Houston Rockets (24/1) to the playoff caliber team they were in 2004-05. Playoff teams a year ago, Washington Wizards (43/1), Sacremento Kings (49/1), Denver Nuggets (51/1), Indiana Pacers (64/1), Los Angeles Lakers (67/1) and Memphis Grizzlies (75/1) are on the outside looking in at the top title contenders according to the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com.
Although there are hopes in the Big Apple that the Knicks will improve on last season’s pitiful 23-win campaign, PinnacleSports.com lists New York as huge 300/1 long shots to win the championship this year. The hopes appear even dimmer for the Portland Trailblazers and Charlotte Bobcats, who are both listed at 500/1 to win the NBA title at PinnacleSports.com.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win 2007 NBA Championship
Dallas Mavericks 4/1
Phoenix Suns 11/2
San Antonio Spurs 11/2
Miami Heat 6/1
New Jersey Nets 9/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 10/1
Detroit Pistons 11/1
Chicago Bulls 19/1
Los Angeles Clippers 22/1
Houston Rockets 24/1
Washington Wizards 43/1
Sacramento Kings 49/1
Denver Nuggets 51/1
Indiana Pacers 64/1
Los Angeles Lakers 67/1
Memphis Grizzlies 75/1
Seattle Supersonics 75/1
Golden State Warriors 75/1
Boston Celtics 75/1
Utah Jazz 75/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 87/1
Atlanta Hawks 87/1
Milwaukee Bucks 90/1
N.O/Oklahoma City Hornets 90/1
Toronto Raptors 109/1
Philadelphia 76ers 130/1
Orlando Magic 150/1
New York Knicks 300/1
Portland Trailblazers 500/1
Charlotte Bobcats 500/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 55
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 55
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Identifying Recurring ‘Steam Plays’ & Turning Them to Your Advantage
An alarming pattern has started this year in college football. Every Thursday afternoon (around 1 p.m. EST), there’s been a flurry of action on a limited number of games. The enormous amounts of money pouring in during this "witching hour" are causing massive line movements – in some cases, we’re seeing a 4-point move in less than 10 minutes. Some say this is the handiwork of handicapper Dr. Bob. Others blame it on syndicate action from Taiwan, China or Israel. Regardless of the source, these line movements are bad news for sportsbooks.
When we take one-sided bets on a football game at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, we adjust the moneyline price to encourage or discourage action. The price is like a control-valve on a dam, controlling how fast the money flows on a given game. If the market price on a game is "Ohio State -14 (-110)", we have two ways to slow down bets on the Buckeyes. We can offer Ohio State at -14 (-111), which is what we call a "stopper" – no one wants to pay this price if a better one is easy to find. We can also adjust the spread off the market price to -14.5 (-105), but the danger whenever you adjust a spread though is that you risk getting sided or middled. Under normal situations, either of these techniques will help control our position.
The problem with these Thursday morning steam-plays arises from how fast a book can get slammed with bets. Price adjustments and even minor spread adjustments do not slow these bettors. If a sportsbook takes many limit bets in a 20-second window, it’s stuck with a very bad position after a 4-point line movement. Each time this happens, an oddsmaker might expect to lose $0.15 for every dollar bet in that time frame (from middles and the cost of offering a good price on the other side). A high-volume shop like Pinnacle Sportsbook can trade its way out of a bad position, but lower volume books can be decimated by this.
Most steam plays tend to be long-term winning plays (as long as you get the pre-move price), and these Thursday plays are no exception. Many players are starting to watch for steam plays Thursday morning, and blindly bet them at slower-moving sportsbooks. This "echo" makes the initial surge even more terrifying for some line managers.
Regular players can make money off these line moves by simply watching the odds screen Thursday mornings. When you see the lines begin to move, bet at smaller books – especially those that offer first-half lines. These types of derivative lines often move slower than game lines. This gives patient players the option to middle the first half once the lines stabilize. If you manage to play a side before a steam-move of at least two points, you can usually scalp the new number at Pinnacle Sports Betting using point-selling and our 10-cent line on college football which offers up to 50% better value than other sports books.
What are the players betting at PinnacleSports.com this week?
Notre Dame -14 +103 at Navy
This game opened with the Irish listed at -14 (-105). While the game has been heavily-traded with fairly balanced action, market drift has made Navy more expensive – they are now trading at +14 (-113). The wise guys have been reluctant to pick one side, possibly uncertain how Navy will perform with the loss of starting quarterback Brian Hampton, due to a knee injury sustained in Navy’s 34-0 loss to Rutgers.
Northern Illinois at Iowa Over 49 -101
There are fewer sharp players specializing in totals compared to sides. Consequently, we see fewer sharp positions on totals this early in the week, but this game is an exception. This total has been heavily traded, and our sharper players are on the over, while the public is backing the under at a ratio of 2-to-1. The high public volume drove down the opener of 52 (-105). When public money greatly outweighs sharp action, it suggests that more sharps could feed on the total than they are currently doing.
Arizona +3.5 -109 at Green Bay
The opener of Green Bay -3 (-112) drew heavy action on both sides, but the public favored the Packers by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. As is often the case, the sharps lined up against the public, backing the Cardinals this time. A few wise guys played the Cardinals earlier, buying a full point up to +4.5. Some of our readers have asked us whether these players are truly sharp if they frequently buy through the "4". Our definition of a sharp player has two requirements: he/she tends to beat the closing line and tends to win long-term. We mention unusual sharp activity (such as buying through the "4") not to encourage our readers to do this blindly, but to offer an insight and angle to explore.
St. Louis +9 -111 at San Diego
Our opener of Rams +10 -110 drew heavy volume, with the public favoring St. Louis. The sharps were on both sides of the game, suggesting it might be a good game to avoid. The reason being that if two 54% handicappers are on opposite sides of the same game, they can only hope to hit 50% on that match-up, which is a losing proposition.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Identifying Recurring ‘Steam Plays’ & Turning Them to Your Advantage
An alarming pattern has started this year in college football. Every Thursday afternoon (around 1 p.m. EST), there’s been a flurry of action on a limited number of games. The enormous amounts of money pouring in during this "witching hour" are causing massive line movements – in some cases, we’re seeing a 4-point move in less than 10 minutes. Some say this is the handiwork of handicapper Dr. Bob. Others blame it on syndicate action from Taiwan, China or Israel. Regardless of the source, these line movements are bad news for sportsbooks.
When we take one-sided bets on a football game at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, we adjust the moneyline price to encourage or discourage action. The price is like a control-valve on a dam, controlling how fast the money flows on a given game. If the market price on a game is "Ohio State -14 (-110)", we have two ways to slow down bets on the Buckeyes. We can offer Ohio State at -14 (-111), which is what we call a "stopper" – no one wants to pay this price if a better one is easy to find. We can also adjust the spread off the market price to -14.5 (-105), but the danger whenever you adjust a spread though is that you risk getting sided or middled. Under normal situations, either of these techniques will help control our position.
The problem with these Thursday morning steam-plays arises from how fast a book can get slammed with bets. Price adjustments and even minor spread adjustments do not slow these bettors. If a sportsbook takes many limit bets in a 20-second window, it’s stuck with a very bad position after a 4-point line movement. Each time this happens, an oddsmaker might expect to lose $0.15 for every dollar bet in that time frame (from middles and the cost of offering a good price on the other side). A high-volume shop like Pinnacle Sportsbook can trade its way out of a bad position, but lower volume books can be decimated by this.
Most steam plays tend to be long-term winning plays (as long as you get the pre-move price), and these Thursday plays are no exception. Many players are starting to watch for steam plays Thursday morning, and blindly bet them at slower-moving sportsbooks. This "echo" makes the initial surge even more terrifying for some line managers.
Regular players can make money off these line moves by simply watching the odds screen Thursday mornings. When you see the lines begin to move, bet at smaller books – especially those that offer first-half lines. These types of derivative lines often move slower than game lines. This gives patient players the option to middle the first half once the lines stabilize. If you manage to play a side before a steam-move of at least two points, you can usually scalp the new number at Pinnacle Sports Betting using point-selling and our 10-cent line on college football which offers up to 50% better value than other sports books.
What are the players betting at PinnacleSports.com this week?
Notre Dame -14 +103 at Navy
This game opened with the Irish listed at -14 (-105). While the game has been heavily-traded with fairly balanced action, market drift has made Navy more expensive – they are now trading at +14 (-113). The wise guys have been reluctant to pick one side, possibly uncertain how Navy will perform with the loss of starting quarterback Brian Hampton, due to a knee injury sustained in Navy’s 34-0 loss to Rutgers.
Northern Illinois at Iowa Over 49 -101
There are fewer sharp players specializing in totals compared to sides. Consequently, we see fewer sharp positions on totals this early in the week, but this game is an exception. This total has been heavily traded, and our sharper players are on the over, while the public is backing the under at a ratio of 2-to-1. The high public volume drove down the opener of 52 (-105). When public money greatly outweighs sharp action, it suggests that more sharps could feed on the total than they are currently doing.
Arizona +3.5 -109 at Green Bay
The opener of Green Bay -3 (-112) drew heavy action on both sides, but the public favored the Packers by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. As is often the case, the sharps lined up against the public, backing the Cardinals this time. A few wise guys played the Cardinals earlier, buying a full point up to +4.5. Some of our readers have asked us whether these players are truly sharp if they frequently buy through the "4". Our definition of a sharp player has two requirements: he/she tends to beat the closing line and tends to win long-term. We mention unusual sharp activity (such as buying through the "4") not to encourage our readers to do this blindly, but to offer an insight and angle to explore.
St. Louis +9 -111 at San Diego
Our opener of Rams +10 -110 drew heavy volume, with the public favoring St. Louis. The sharps were on both sides of the game, suggesting it might be a good game to avoid. The reason being that if two 54% handicappers are on opposite sides of the same game, they can only hope to hit 50% on that match-up, which is a losing proposition.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
Immediate Release from Pinnacle
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Odds Are dennis Green Will Be First NFL Coaching Casualty
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds On First NFL Head Coach To Lose His Job
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 25, 2006)—We’re only seven weeks into the NFL season and already the contenders have begun to separate themselves from the pretenders. Several head coaches are already starting to feel the heat as their teams are failing to meet pre-season expectations. With a number of teams off to a slow start, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds on which current NFL coach will be the first to lose his job.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has created individual odds on 12 NFL head coaches becoming the first coaching casualty this season. After following up a choke job of historic proportions on Monday Night versus Chicago, with a loss last Sunday to the lowly Raiders, it’s no surprise that Arizona’s Dennis Green is the odds-on favorite to become the first coach to get his walking papers at 1/1 odds (i.e., win $1 for every $1 bet). While only in his second year at the helm, Romeo Crennel (7/1) might be on the verge of losing his job in Cleveland as the team continues to falter and just this week, offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon resigned. Although widely considered the worst team in the NFL, Art Shell (8/1) may get some leeway from Al Davis in Oakland knowing that the team is in full rebuilding mode. With a shocking 1-6 start to the season, the playoff aspirations in Miami are all but gone and PinnacleSports.com now lists the chances of the previously unthinkable firing of Nick Saban at 9/1.
"Several media reports already indicate that unless Arizona wins at Green Bay this weekend, Dennis Green might not make it through the team’s Week 9 bye as head coach of the Cardinals," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "If blowing a 20-point halftime lead on Monday Night Football and exploding at the post-game press conference weren’t enough, Arizona were then dominated by the previously winless Raiders – a sure sign that Green’s days are numbered. The race to become the first NFL coaching casualty would even be hotly contested without Green in the equation as Crennel, Shell and Saban all appear to be firmly headed for the chopping block."
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com list Buffalo’s Dick Jauron at 11/1 odds to get his walking papers first, even though he’s only in his first season leading the Bills. Veteran coaches Jeff Fisher (13/1) and Joe Gibbs (13/1) are also solid candidates to become the first coaching casualty this season as their teams have combined for a total of just three wins. San Francisco’s Mike Nolan and Detroit’s Rod Marinelli, who are in the midst of rebuilding projects with their teams, have both been listed at 15/1. Although Tampa Bay has rallied for back-to-back wins after starting 0-5 this year, PinnacleSports.com still lists head coach Jon Gruden at 24/1 to become the first coach to get his pink slip this year. Meanwhile, head coach of the reigning Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, Bill Cowher and first year coach Mike McCarthy of Green Bay, are both listed as long shots to be the first coaching casualty at 31/1.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Which Of These NFL Coaches Will Lose His Job First?
Dennis Green 1/1
Romeo Crennel 7/1
Art Shell 8/1
Nick Saban 9/1
Dick Jauron 11/1
Jeff Fisher 13/1
Joe Gibbs 13/1
Mike Nolan 15/1
Rod Marinelli 15/1
Jon Gruden 24/1
Bill Cowher 31/1
Mike McCarthy 31/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Odds Are dennis Green Will Be First NFL Coaching Casualty
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds On First NFL Head Coach To Lose His Job
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 25, 2006)—We’re only seven weeks into the NFL season and already the contenders have begun to separate themselves from the pretenders. Several head coaches are already starting to feel the heat as their teams are failing to meet pre-season expectations. With a number of teams off to a slow start, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds on which current NFL coach will be the first to lose his job.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has created individual odds on 12 NFL head coaches becoming the first coaching casualty this season. After following up a choke job of historic proportions on Monday Night versus Chicago, with a loss last Sunday to the lowly Raiders, it’s no surprise that Arizona’s Dennis Green is the odds-on favorite to become the first coach to get his walking papers at 1/1 odds (i.e., win $1 for every $1 bet). While only in his second year at the helm, Romeo Crennel (7/1) might be on the verge of losing his job in Cleveland as the team continues to falter and just this week, offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon resigned. Although widely considered the worst team in the NFL, Art Shell (8/1) may get some leeway from Al Davis in Oakland knowing that the team is in full rebuilding mode. With a shocking 1-6 start to the season, the playoff aspirations in Miami are all but gone and PinnacleSports.com now lists the chances of the previously unthinkable firing of Nick Saban at 9/1.
"Several media reports already indicate that unless Arizona wins at Green Bay this weekend, Dennis Green might not make it through the team’s Week 9 bye as head coach of the Cardinals," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "If blowing a 20-point halftime lead on Monday Night Football and exploding at the post-game press conference weren’t enough, Arizona were then dominated by the previously winless Raiders – a sure sign that Green’s days are numbered. The race to become the first NFL coaching casualty would even be hotly contested without Green in the equation as Crennel, Shell and Saban all appear to be firmly headed for the chopping block."
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com list Buffalo’s Dick Jauron at 11/1 odds to get his walking papers first, even though he’s only in his first season leading the Bills. Veteran coaches Jeff Fisher (13/1) and Joe Gibbs (13/1) are also solid candidates to become the first coaching casualty this season as their teams have combined for a total of just three wins. San Francisco’s Mike Nolan and Detroit’s Rod Marinelli, who are in the midst of rebuilding projects with their teams, have both been listed at 15/1. Although Tampa Bay has rallied for back-to-back wins after starting 0-5 this year, PinnacleSports.com still lists head coach Jon Gruden at 24/1 to become the first coach to get his pink slip this year. Meanwhile, head coach of the reigning Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, Bill Cowher and first year coach Mike McCarthy of Green Bay, are both listed as long shots to be the first coaching casualty at 31/1.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Which Of These NFL Coaches Will Lose His Job First?
Dennis Green 1/1
Romeo Crennel 7/1
Art Shell 8/1
Nick Saban 9/1
Dick Jauron 11/1
Jeff Fisher 13/1
Joe Gibbs 13/1
Mike Nolan 15/1
Rod Marinelli 15/1
Jon Gruden 24/1
Bill Cowher 31/1
Mike McCarthy 31/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 54
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Understanding ‘Luck’ and Making It Work For You
Two Sundays ago, during the end of the Dallas-Philadelphia game, the Cowboys were down 31-24 and driving into Eagle territory with about 30 seconds on the clock. Though Dallas were long shots to score a TD and tie things up, those "wise guys" sitting on the teaser of Dallas +1.5 up to +7.5 were already counting their winnings.
With Dallas out of timeouts, a few more incomplete passes, a touchdown, or even getting tackled in bounds would end the game and give many of these players a chance to cash at the window with a smile on their face… Then the unthinkable happened!!! A Dallas pass in the end zone was intercepted and returned 102 yards for a Philadelphia touchdown. Whether you call this a highly improbable occurrence, or just plain bad luck, either way all those Dallas teasers bit the dust and those wise guys lost out.
While a bad-beat like that may leave a horrible taste in the mouth, it’s surprising how quickly players forget about the impact of luck on a team’s performance. Players might later review Dallas’s schedule and note the Cowboy’s win/loss record, or the points for/against, but miss the subtle nuances of outrageous misfortune – like the 102 yard TD interception.
In a very long season – such as the NBA or MLB - the good and bad breaks tend to balance each other out. After 30-40 games, you get a fair measure of a team’s ability. It’s more dangerous to ignore luck’s affects on an NFL team due to the short season; most successful bettors appreciate how luck adds another dimension to a team’s win/loss record.
There are several occasions each NFL season where the better football team does not win because of a lucky or unlucky play that defies reason. We’ve all seen miracles and disasters cause small fortunes to change hands between bookies and bettors, but still many players ignore this factor when evaluating teams.
In the same way that players perceive a pattern at the roulette table when the ball lands on black for six consecutive spins (there’s actually no pattern, just a sequence of random events), many players try to deduce a "pattern" in lucky or unlucky teams. However, the results are better explained by chance.
How do handicappers decide if a result is due solely to luck or from the quality of a team that finds a way to win? Many professional players do extensive statistical testing of a single factor that might be heavily affected by luck. This approach determines whether a team that has shown a certain tendency in the past (such as throwing many interceptions) is likely to continue in the future.
The "bean counters" do this with correlation tests, trying to validate (or refute) the idea that "bad teams throw more interceptions" by looking at the results of teams in prior seasons. Do bad teams throw more interceptions, or are there simply unlucky events that make a team "look bad"? This question can be answered even if you have no idea what a "correlation test" is.
First off, identify the factor you want to test for luck – in this case, interceptions. Look at league-wide statistics for the first eight weeks of the prior season, to see which teams had the most, and least interceptions. Divide all NFL teams between "good" and "bad" based on interceptions thrown. If they threw more than average, put them in the "bad" group, and otherwise in the "good" stack.
Then utilize the same process while examining the last eight or nine weeks. If the same 16 teams are bad in both halves, it would suggest a very high correlation, meaning that a team that throws picks will probably keep doing so. If exactly half of the "bad teams" from the first half of the season are bad in the second half (regarding interceptions), it would suggest the event is purely random (since a "bad" team in the first half of the season is equally likely to be good or bad in the second).
Practicing this test on NFL teams, will show that interceptions thrown by a team are almost completely random. In fact, you’d also find similar results for all forms of giveaways and takeaways – there’s less than a 20% correlation. So how do bettors turn this knowledge into money? Simply recognize when teams are overrated or underrated because of the impact on perception of good or bad luck.
A team with a high turnover differential looks good in a box-score, but it’s just as likely to be positive as negative on turnovers going forward. Historical scores do not reflect that, and make these teams (like St. Louis) look much stronger than they actually are. Similarly, teams with negative turnover differentials (like Oakland and Cleveland) tend to outperform the public’s expectations (and hence, the spread).
There are other calculations bettors can do that will give a statistical edge in sports betting. Identifying results that are unusual due to luck will put you in position to evaluate teams better than the market as a whole. With any statistic you can isolate and analyze – from the Colts’ 3rd-down conversion rate to anomalies in field goal kicking – if you can recognize luck, you can make money off it.
Real statistics geeks can go further with the luck factors identified. Advanced correlation can tell you how much difference a lucky turnover change makes to an NFL game (it’s actually about 3.5 points). Or, a hit batter in baseball, which accounts for about 0.5 runs. If you can quantify how much these lucky/unlucky instances change the event outcomes, you can "adjust" your statistics accordingly and gain a better measure of what truly happened. If your assessment is more accurate than the market, you will profit.
What are our players betting?
Miami -17.5 -109 at Duke
In Miami’s game against FIU last week, a brawl broke out resulting in the suspension of 13 Miami players. We thought the opener of Miami -20.5 accurately reflected these suspensions, but the sharps disagreed. The wise guys fired away on Duke at +20.5 with some buying it up to +21.5. Despite the sharp action on Duke, we are seeing many more players backing Miami.
Texas -6.5 -105 at Nebraska
The initial opener of Texas -8 drew a flurry of sharp activity, all of which was on Nebraska. Most of the public is on Texas and there are three times as many wagers on the Longhorns, including most of our larger Asian players. This game has been heavily traded, with the sharps refusing to allow the line to drift to Texas -7.
San Diego Chargers -5 -103 at Kansas City Chiefs
The sharps were split evenly on the opener of Chargers -4.5 with some sharps buying the Chargers down to -3.5. When we see this type of activity, one of two things must be true – our push percentages are wrong or their numbers are wrong. Although there’s fairly balanced action in terms of volume, the public clearly favors the Chargers as we’ve taken nearly 20 times as many bets on San Diego as Kansas City.
Carolina Panthers +3 +105 at Cincinnati Bengals
We opened the Panthers at +3.5 (-112) and saw a fairly rare event – the sharps AND the public backing the same side. With nearly three times as many bets on Carolina as Cincinnati, this price has drifted down. Similar to the San Diego game, we’re seeing some of our sharper players buy through the "4".
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
Understanding ‘Luck’ and Making It Work For You
Two Sundays ago, during the end of the Dallas-Philadelphia game, the Cowboys were down 31-24 and driving into Eagle territory with about 30 seconds on the clock. Though Dallas were long shots to score a TD and tie things up, those "wise guys" sitting on the teaser of Dallas +1.5 up to +7.5 were already counting their winnings.
With Dallas out of timeouts, a few more incomplete passes, a touchdown, or even getting tackled in bounds would end the game and give many of these players a chance to cash at the window with a smile on their face… Then the unthinkable happened!!! A Dallas pass in the end zone was intercepted and returned 102 yards for a Philadelphia touchdown. Whether you call this a highly improbable occurrence, or just plain bad luck, either way all those Dallas teasers bit the dust and those wise guys lost out.
While a bad-beat like that may leave a horrible taste in the mouth, it’s surprising how quickly players forget about the impact of luck on a team’s performance. Players might later review Dallas’s schedule and note the Cowboy’s win/loss record, or the points for/against, but miss the subtle nuances of outrageous misfortune – like the 102 yard TD interception.
In a very long season – such as the NBA or MLB - the good and bad breaks tend to balance each other out. After 30-40 games, you get a fair measure of a team’s ability. It’s more dangerous to ignore luck’s affects on an NFL team due to the short season; most successful bettors appreciate how luck adds another dimension to a team’s win/loss record.
There are several occasions each NFL season where the better football team does not win because of a lucky or unlucky play that defies reason. We’ve all seen miracles and disasters cause small fortunes to change hands between bookies and bettors, but still many players ignore this factor when evaluating teams.
In the same way that players perceive a pattern at the roulette table when the ball lands on black for six consecutive spins (there’s actually no pattern, just a sequence of random events), many players try to deduce a "pattern" in lucky or unlucky teams. However, the results are better explained by chance.
How do handicappers decide if a result is due solely to luck or from the quality of a team that finds a way to win? Many professional players do extensive statistical testing of a single factor that might be heavily affected by luck. This approach determines whether a team that has shown a certain tendency in the past (such as throwing many interceptions) is likely to continue in the future.
The "bean counters" do this with correlation tests, trying to validate (or refute) the idea that "bad teams throw more interceptions" by looking at the results of teams in prior seasons. Do bad teams throw more interceptions, or are there simply unlucky events that make a team "look bad"? This question can be answered even if you have no idea what a "correlation test" is.
First off, identify the factor you want to test for luck – in this case, interceptions. Look at league-wide statistics for the first eight weeks of the prior season, to see which teams had the most, and least interceptions. Divide all NFL teams between "good" and "bad" based on interceptions thrown. If they threw more than average, put them in the "bad" group, and otherwise in the "good" stack.
Then utilize the same process while examining the last eight or nine weeks. If the same 16 teams are bad in both halves, it would suggest a very high correlation, meaning that a team that throws picks will probably keep doing so. If exactly half of the "bad teams" from the first half of the season are bad in the second half (regarding interceptions), it would suggest the event is purely random (since a "bad" team in the first half of the season is equally likely to be good or bad in the second).
Practicing this test on NFL teams, will show that interceptions thrown by a team are almost completely random. In fact, you’d also find similar results for all forms of giveaways and takeaways – there’s less than a 20% correlation. So how do bettors turn this knowledge into money? Simply recognize when teams are overrated or underrated because of the impact on perception of good or bad luck.
A team with a high turnover differential looks good in a box-score, but it’s just as likely to be positive as negative on turnovers going forward. Historical scores do not reflect that, and make these teams (like St. Louis) look much stronger than they actually are. Similarly, teams with negative turnover differentials (like Oakland and Cleveland) tend to outperform the public’s expectations (and hence, the spread).
There are other calculations bettors can do that will give a statistical edge in sports betting. Identifying results that are unusual due to luck will put you in position to evaluate teams better than the market as a whole. With any statistic you can isolate and analyze – from the Colts’ 3rd-down conversion rate to anomalies in field goal kicking – if you can recognize luck, you can make money off it.
Real statistics geeks can go further with the luck factors identified. Advanced correlation can tell you how much difference a lucky turnover change makes to an NFL game (it’s actually about 3.5 points). Or, a hit batter in baseball, which accounts for about 0.5 runs. If you can quantify how much these lucky/unlucky instances change the event outcomes, you can "adjust" your statistics accordingly and gain a better measure of what truly happened. If your assessment is more accurate than the market, you will profit.
What are our players betting?
Miami -17.5 -109 at Duke
In Miami’s game against FIU last week, a brawl broke out resulting in the suspension of 13 Miami players. We thought the opener of Miami -20.5 accurately reflected these suspensions, but the sharps disagreed. The wise guys fired away on Duke at +20.5 with some buying it up to +21.5. Despite the sharp action on Duke, we are seeing many more players backing Miami.
Texas -6.5 -105 at Nebraska
The initial opener of Texas -8 drew a flurry of sharp activity, all of which was on Nebraska. Most of the public is on Texas and there are three times as many wagers on the Longhorns, including most of our larger Asian players. This game has been heavily traded, with the sharps refusing to allow the line to drift to Texas -7.
San Diego Chargers -5 -103 at Kansas City Chiefs
The sharps were split evenly on the opener of Chargers -4.5 with some sharps buying the Chargers down to -3.5. When we see this type of activity, one of two things must be true – our push percentages are wrong or their numbers are wrong. Although there’s fairly balanced action in terms of volume, the public clearly favors the Chargers as we’ve taken nearly 20 times as many bets on San Diego as Kansas City.
Carolina Panthers +3 +105 at Cincinnati Bengals
We opened the Panthers at +3.5 (-112) and saw a fairly rare event – the sharps AND the public backing the same side. With nearly three times as many bets on Carolina as Cincinnati, this price has drifted down. Similar to the San Diego game, we’re seeing some of our sharper players buy through the "4".
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 53
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Turning Fantasy Football Into Real Cash
Fantasy sports have become an extremely popular pastime with tens of millions of sports fans around the world. During football season, fantasy owners spend hours each week examining player statistics, evaluating their fantasy football teams and contemplating trades. Team owners hold extensive negotiations over even the smallest transactions in hopes that the hard work will payoff come game day. Once Sunday’s NFL games kickoff, fantasy players turn their focus to statistics in the day’s games, hoping to dominate their respective leagues.
What could be better than seeing your Fantasy Team crushing a hapless opponent? Winning your fantasy game AND making money! Pinnacle Sportsbook is now taking bets on YOUR fantasy games, so that it can become a reality! As always, Pinnacle Sportsbetting is even offering reduced juice with -108 pricing on YOUR Fantasy League match-ups.
It only takes about three minutes to set up your league and begin betting on your fantasy team’s match-ups. Simply go to FantasyRivals.com, and create a new account – you only need a username and valid email address. Once logged in, importing your Fantasy League from either Yahoo! or CBS Sportsline happens almost instantaneously. If your league is hosted on another service or you don’t belong to an existing league, you also have the option of entering the league information manually.
Once your league is set up, select the "Line Generator" which allows you to request a point spread between two chosen fantasy teams in your league. This betting line is then available at PinnacleSports.com, where you can bet on it like any other sporting event. The one caveat is that both quarterbacks must play for your bet to have action – any other player missing from the game doesn’t matter (except for your fantasy score!).
Even if you’re not a big bettor, FantasyRivals.com gives you an edge to help win your fantasy league. The Line Generator gives a good indication of how strong your starting lineup is in a professional bookmaker’s eyes relative to that week’s opponent. The ultimate tool helping fantasy owners make difficult lineup decisions, the Line Generator will automatically devise a new betting line as owners activate different players in their starting lineup, which indicates what players are good Starts/Sits for your game.
For example; if the Line Generator makes your team a 7-point favorite with Chester Taylor starting at RB, but only a 4-point favorite with Warrick Dunn starting in his place, this indicates that Taylor is a better start in your match-up. If you’re surprised at the new line, or think a change is not adequately reflected in the line, you can always back your opinion by betting into that line at Pinnacle Sports Book.
In both fantasy games and betting, paying particular attention to match-ups where a player may have a breakout performance can be very beneficial. Since Pinnacle Sports’ Fantasy Team lines are based on expected average performance, you’ll want to find situations where a player’s performance may differ drastically from his average.
Many of your opponents will use similar criteria to select their starting lineup, but occasionally, you can find a break-out player who’ll exceed his past performance. This often happens when there’s a change in that player’s role. For example, a tight end or secondary wide receiver might get more looks and earn more points if a team’s top receiver is injured.
Another opportunity to find breakout players may arise in mismatches. When a game goes into the second half with a dominant favorite up 14 or more points, there are usually significant changes in play selection. The favorite tends to run the ball more often, while the losing team attempts more passes. Using this theory to your advantage, you may want to activate running backs for teams that are favored by 10 points or more.
It’s equally important to avoid quarterbacks playing for large underdogs. Although they typically attempt more passes, they also tend to throw a disproportionate number of interceptions. You’re also likely to see a winning team using more nickel and dime defensive packages (even on first or second down), when its opponent is down a few scores in the second half. While quarterbacks of big underdogs are typically something to be avoided in fantasy, receivers and tight ends of these teams often benefit from the rout by making more pass receptions, without getting penalized for the more frequent interceptions and sacks.
What are our players betting now?
Philadelphia -3.5 -106 v New Orleans
In the highest-traded game of the week, the Eagles opened as 2.5-point road favorites where several early bets from sharps quickly moved the line. The professionals clearly like the Eagles at -2.5 and even -3, but are passing on Philly -3.5. New Orleans has been a fairly public team this year, so we expect Saints backers to take the +3.5, which could force this game to close on the 3.
Chicago/Arizona Over 38 -107
The opening total of 37 was heavily bet by the public forcing the line up to 38. The sharps have not expressed an opinion on this game yet, which may indicate that they’re waiting for Monday night to play the under. While the Bears’ have averaged over 31 points per game this season, it remains to be seen if the Cardinals can score against the dominant Chicago defense.
Florida +1 -105 v Auburn
Auburn was embarrassed last week losing to Arkansas 27-10 at home. Public bettors often back top-ranked teams following this type of loss using a "bounce back" theory. This game is clearly following that trend as a lot of public money has already come in on the Tigers. The sharps clearly favor Florida, and their larger wagers have pushed the opener of Florida +1.5 down.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Turning Fantasy Football Into Real Cash
Fantasy sports have become an extremely popular pastime with tens of millions of sports fans around the world. During football season, fantasy owners spend hours each week examining player statistics, evaluating their fantasy football teams and contemplating trades. Team owners hold extensive negotiations over even the smallest transactions in hopes that the hard work will payoff come game day. Once Sunday’s NFL games kickoff, fantasy players turn their focus to statistics in the day’s games, hoping to dominate their respective leagues.
What could be better than seeing your Fantasy Team crushing a hapless opponent? Winning your fantasy game AND making money! Pinnacle Sportsbook is now taking bets on YOUR fantasy games, so that it can become a reality! As always, Pinnacle Sportsbetting is even offering reduced juice with -108 pricing on YOUR Fantasy League match-ups.
It only takes about three minutes to set up your league and begin betting on your fantasy team’s match-ups. Simply go to FantasyRivals.com, and create a new account – you only need a username and valid email address. Once logged in, importing your Fantasy League from either Yahoo! or CBS Sportsline happens almost instantaneously. If your league is hosted on another service or you don’t belong to an existing league, you also have the option of entering the league information manually.
Once your league is set up, select the "Line Generator" which allows you to request a point spread between two chosen fantasy teams in your league. This betting line is then available at PinnacleSports.com, where you can bet on it like any other sporting event. The one caveat is that both quarterbacks must play for your bet to have action – any other player missing from the game doesn’t matter (except for your fantasy score!).
Even if you’re not a big bettor, FantasyRivals.com gives you an edge to help win your fantasy league. The Line Generator gives a good indication of how strong your starting lineup is in a professional bookmaker’s eyes relative to that week’s opponent. The ultimate tool helping fantasy owners make difficult lineup decisions, the Line Generator will automatically devise a new betting line as owners activate different players in their starting lineup, which indicates what players are good Starts/Sits for your game.
For example; if the Line Generator makes your team a 7-point favorite with Chester Taylor starting at RB, but only a 4-point favorite with Warrick Dunn starting in his place, this indicates that Taylor is a better start in your match-up. If you’re surprised at the new line, or think a change is not adequately reflected in the line, you can always back your opinion by betting into that line at Pinnacle Sports Book.
In both fantasy games and betting, paying particular attention to match-ups where a player may have a breakout performance can be very beneficial. Since Pinnacle Sports’ Fantasy Team lines are based on expected average performance, you’ll want to find situations where a player’s performance may differ drastically from his average.
Many of your opponents will use similar criteria to select their starting lineup, but occasionally, you can find a break-out player who’ll exceed his past performance. This often happens when there’s a change in that player’s role. For example, a tight end or secondary wide receiver might get more looks and earn more points if a team’s top receiver is injured.
Another opportunity to find breakout players may arise in mismatches. When a game goes into the second half with a dominant favorite up 14 or more points, there are usually significant changes in play selection. The favorite tends to run the ball more often, while the losing team attempts more passes. Using this theory to your advantage, you may want to activate running backs for teams that are favored by 10 points or more.
It’s equally important to avoid quarterbacks playing for large underdogs. Although they typically attempt more passes, they also tend to throw a disproportionate number of interceptions. You’re also likely to see a winning team using more nickel and dime defensive packages (even on first or second down), when its opponent is down a few scores in the second half. While quarterbacks of big underdogs are typically something to be avoided in fantasy, receivers and tight ends of these teams often benefit from the rout by making more pass receptions, without getting penalized for the more frequent interceptions and sacks.
What are our players betting now?
Philadelphia -3.5 -106 v New Orleans
In the highest-traded game of the week, the Eagles opened as 2.5-point road favorites where several early bets from sharps quickly moved the line. The professionals clearly like the Eagles at -2.5 and even -3, but are passing on Philly -3.5. New Orleans has been a fairly public team this year, so we expect Saints backers to take the +3.5, which could force this game to close on the 3.
Chicago/Arizona Over 38 -107
The opening total of 37 was heavily bet by the public forcing the line up to 38. The sharps have not expressed an opinion on this game yet, which may indicate that they’re waiting for Monday night to play the under. While the Bears’ have averaged over 31 points per game this season, it remains to be seen if the Cardinals can score against the dominant Chicago defense.
Florida +1 -105 v Auburn
Auburn was embarrassed last week losing to Arkansas 27-10 at home. Public bettors often back top-ranked teams following this type of loss using a "bounce back" theory. This game is clearly following that trend as a lot of public money has already come in on the Tigers. The sharps clearly favor Florida, and their larger wagers have pushed the opener of Florida +1.5 down.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 52
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 52
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion
All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.
One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?
Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.
When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?
If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.
The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?
Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.
So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?
LSU -1 -101 v Florida
Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.
Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.
Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona
The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego
This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion
All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.
One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?
Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.
When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?
If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.
The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?
Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.
So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?
LSU -1 -101 v Florida
Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.
Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.
Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona
The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego
This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.
Pinnacle Pulse
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 52
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion
All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.
One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?
Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.
When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?
If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.
The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?
Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.
So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?
LSU -1 -101 v Florida
Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.
Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.
Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona
The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego
This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion
All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.
One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?
Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.
When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?
If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.
The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?
Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.
So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?
LSU -1 -101 v Florida
Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.
Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.
Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona
The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego
This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Pinnacle Pulse
Bills face stiff test from Bears
The Buffalo Bills climbed back up to the .500 mark with a 17-12 home win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. In order to get over that mark this weekend they’ll have to do what no other team has been able to this season – beat the Chicago Bears.
The Bears ran roughshod over the Seattle Seahawks in the Sunday Night game last week, getting two touchdown passes from Rex Grossman and two touchdown runs from Thomas Jones in the 37-6 victory. Chicago easily covered the spread at home versus Seattle, and now sit at 3-1 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
Buffalo is also 3-1 ATS in 2006, thanks to their win over Minnesota last week. Bills quarterback J.P. Losman went 23-of-32 for 222 yards passing versus the Vikings, with one touchdown and no interceptions. Willis McGahee ran for a score for Buffalo, and Peerless Price had the team’s TD catch.
To improve that ATS mark today, the Bills need to keep the score close. Oddsmakers at http://pinnaclesports.com/ have the unbeaten Bears pegged as large 11.5 point +106 (bet $100 to win $106) home favorites for the 1:00pm ET contest versus Buffalo. The Bears are 2-0 ATS at home this season, and 3-1 ATS as favorites. The Bills are 2-0 ATS on the road in 2006, and 2-0 ATS as the underdog.
The total for Sunday’s game is currently sitting at 34 points. The combined score of last week’s Bills/Vikings game fell UNDER the posted total, and Buffalo is 1-3 OVER/UNDER on the season. Chicago has a 2-1-1 OU mark in 2006 and the Bears almost single-handedly cashed the OVER against the Seahawks.
The last time Buffalo and Chicago met in September 2002, the Bills came away with a 33-27 home victory as 3-point favorites. The combined score of that contest went OVER the day’s posted total. The Bears haven’t beaten the Bills since December 1997, when they came up with a 20-3 home victory as 1-point underdogs.
And then there were three
You expect this perfect-record stuff from Indianapolis. It seems Peyton Manning and his Colts gallop out to a 5-0 or 10-0 start every season, making headlines each time.
But the Bears? Or the Ravens?
Only three teams that charged unbeaten into Week 4 survived the weekend. Two Super Bowl contenders were humbled last week as the defending NFC champion Seahawks were mauled 37-6 in Chicago, while the 3-0 Bengals were pummeled at home by the Patriots.
If you listen closely, you can hear early whispers of a Chicago-Indy Super Bowl. And of the three surviving unbeaten teams, they look like the best bets to stay that way through Week 5, while the surprising Ravens, who finished off the 2-0 Chargers at home, have a tough task in Denver.
Widely recognized as the largest online sports book in the world, www.PinnacleSports.com is known for taking action from all players big or small. Whether it’s $1 or $50,000, www.PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for being the destination of choice for seasoned professionals and sports betting novices alike.
Offering up to 60% better odds on NFL sides than other bookmakers, the oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com list Indianapolis as a whopping 18.5 point (+102) favorite at home to winless Tennessee, while the Bears moved quickly from -8 to -11.5 (+106) favorites at www.PinnacleSports.com to handle the Bills.
The Ravens, meanwhile, opened as 3.5-point -101 (bet $101 to win $100) underdogs to the 2-1 Broncos, who are coming off a bye week. Denver is 5-1 ATS in their past six at home with the extra week of rest.
While teams at the top of NFL food chain are changing, it’s the same old teams providing the steady diet of wins at the bottom.
Tennessee, Oakland and Detroit are joined by Tampa Bay as the only winless teams, while the 49ers and Cardinals (both 1-3) have done little to shed their reputations as perennial losers.
The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS, punishing fans and bettors who bought the early hype that this year would be different in the desert. It’s looking exactly the same in Arizona, except for one significant change: The Matt Leinart Era begins much earlier than most anticipated.
A 1-3 start and abysmal play by starter Kurt Warner has forced a change under center. The Cardinals host Kansas City, who clobbered San Francisco 41-0 last week and look to make it two straight. Oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites in the desert, but it moved to -3 -123 after plenty of early money poured in on KC.
In the Meadowlands, a fierce division rivalry between the suddenly explosive Redskins and the rested Giants is renewed, with New York coming off a bye week (where they are 14-5 ATS the last 19 games after a bye). Washington looks to the rejuvenated Mark Brunell to Santana Moss tandem to do more damage, after hooking up for three scores in last Sunday’s win over the Jags.
The Giants are 1-2, but deserve to be 0-3. In fairness, they’ve played three top teams in Philadelphia, Seattle and Indy, but they can’t afford to lose division games. Realizing this, bettors jumped all over the line at -3, pushing it quickly to Giants -4 -109.
In Miami, the alleged Super Bowl contending Dolphins join Carolina as the only other teams with 0-4 ATS marks. The Dolphins could be headed for a 1-4 start, but they get ten points from www.PinnacleSports.com oddsmakers who figure, if they can’t beat Houston, they can’t beat New England. The Patriots are listed as -10 +103 favorites to cover.
If you subscribe to the Letdown Theory, the Patriots may be primed for one after a thorough road win at Cincinnati. You could advance the theory further, believing that the Dolphins hit bottom in Houston and will rebound against a division foe.
However, Miami’s offense has been dreadful with Daunte Culpepper proving to be the next Jay Fielder instead of the second coming of Dan Marino, and Ronnie Brown struggling on the ground.
In Jacksonville, the Jaguars have covered four straight meetings with the Jets. But are these two teams headed in opposite directions?
New York has won twice outright as a road underdog this season, while losing tough games at home to New England and Indy. Can they de-claw the Jaguars and send them to a third consecutive defeat? The Jets opened as touchdown dogs and will have to make the most of their time on offense if Jacksonville’s ball-hogging ways continue. Jag’s QB Byron Leftwich and the offense have averaged 36 minutes in time-of-possession in two home games, an edge the Jets will need to counteract. www.PinnacleSports.com list the Jaguars as -7 -104 favorites for the tie in Jacksonville.
The contenders are distancing themselves from the pretenders early in 2006.
The Buffalo Bills climbed back up to the .500 mark with a 17-12 home win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. In order to get over that mark this weekend they’ll have to do what no other team has been able to this season – beat the Chicago Bears.
The Bears ran roughshod over the Seattle Seahawks in the Sunday Night game last week, getting two touchdown passes from Rex Grossman and two touchdown runs from Thomas Jones in the 37-6 victory. Chicago easily covered the spread at home versus Seattle, and now sit at 3-1 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
Buffalo is also 3-1 ATS in 2006, thanks to their win over Minnesota last week. Bills quarterback J.P. Losman went 23-of-32 for 222 yards passing versus the Vikings, with one touchdown and no interceptions. Willis McGahee ran for a score for Buffalo, and Peerless Price had the team’s TD catch.
To improve that ATS mark today, the Bills need to keep the score close. Oddsmakers at http://pinnaclesports.com/ have the unbeaten Bears pegged as large 11.5 point +106 (bet $100 to win $106) home favorites for the 1:00pm ET contest versus Buffalo. The Bears are 2-0 ATS at home this season, and 3-1 ATS as favorites. The Bills are 2-0 ATS on the road in 2006, and 2-0 ATS as the underdog.
The total for Sunday’s game is currently sitting at 34 points. The combined score of last week’s Bills/Vikings game fell UNDER the posted total, and Buffalo is 1-3 OVER/UNDER on the season. Chicago has a 2-1-1 OU mark in 2006 and the Bears almost single-handedly cashed the OVER against the Seahawks.
The last time Buffalo and Chicago met in September 2002, the Bills came away with a 33-27 home victory as 3-point favorites. The combined score of that contest went OVER the day’s posted total. The Bears haven’t beaten the Bills since December 1997, when they came up with a 20-3 home victory as 1-point underdogs.
And then there were three
You expect this perfect-record stuff from Indianapolis. It seems Peyton Manning and his Colts gallop out to a 5-0 or 10-0 start every season, making headlines each time.
But the Bears? Or the Ravens?
Only three teams that charged unbeaten into Week 4 survived the weekend. Two Super Bowl contenders were humbled last week as the defending NFC champion Seahawks were mauled 37-6 in Chicago, while the 3-0 Bengals were pummeled at home by the Patriots.
If you listen closely, you can hear early whispers of a Chicago-Indy Super Bowl. And of the three surviving unbeaten teams, they look like the best bets to stay that way through Week 5, while the surprising Ravens, who finished off the 2-0 Chargers at home, have a tough task in Denver.
Widely recognized as the largest online sports book in the world, www.PinnacleSports.com is known for taking action from all players big or small. Whether it’s $1 or $50,000, www.PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for being the destination of choice for seasoned professionals and sports betting novices alike.
Offering up to 60% better odds on NFL sides than other bookmakers, the oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com list Indianapolis as a whopping 18.5 point (+102) favorite at home to winless Tennessee, while the Bears moved quickly from -8 to -11.5 (+106) favorites at www.PinnacleSports.com to handle the Bills.
The Ravens, meanwhile, opened as 3.5-point -101 (bet $101 to win $100) underdogs to the 2-1 Broncos, who are coming off a bye week. Denver is 5-1 ATS in their past six at home with the extra week of rest.
While teams at the top of NFL food chain are changing, it’s the same old teams providing the steady diet of wins at the bottom.
Tennessee, Oakland and Detroit are joined by Tampa Bay as the only winless teams, while the 49ers and Cardinals (both 1-3) have done little to shed their reputations as perennial losers.
The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS, punishing fans and bettors who bought the early hype that this year would be different in the desert. It’s looking exactly the same in Arizona, except for one significant change: The Matt Leinart Era begins much earlier than most anticipated.
A 1-3 start and abysmal play by starter Kurt Warner has forced a change under center. The Cardinals host Kansas City, who clobbered San Francisco 41-0 last week and look to make it two straight. Oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites in the desert, but it moved to -3 -123 after plenty of early money poured in on KC.
In the Meadowlands, a fierce division rivalry between the suddenly explosive Redskins and the rested Giants is renewed, with New York coming off a bye week (where they are 14-5 ATS the last 19 games after a bye). Washington looks to the rejuvenated Mark Brunell to Santana Moss tandem to do more damage, after hooking up for three scores in last Sunday’s win over the Jags.
The Giants are 1-2, but deserve to be 0-3. In fairness, they’ve played three top teams in Philadelphia, Seattle and Indy, but they can’t afford to lose division games. Realizing this, bettors jumped all over the line at -3, pushing it quickly to Giants -4 -109.
In Miami, the alleged Super Bowl contending Dolphins join Carolina as the only other teams with 0-4 ATS marks. The Dolphins could be headed for a 1-4 start, but they get ten points from www.PinnacleSports.com oddsmakers who figure, if they can’t beat Houston, they can’t beat New England. The Patriots are listed as -10 +103 favorites to cover.
If you subscribe to the Letdown Theory, the Patriots may be primed for one after a thorough road win at Cincinnati. You could advance the theory further, believing that the Dolphins hit bottom in Houston and will rebound against a division foe.
However, Miami’s offense has been dreadful with Daunte Culpepper proving to be the next Jay Fielder instead of the second coming of Dan Marino, and Ronnie Brown struggling on the ground.
In Jacksonville, the Jaguars have covered four straight meetings with the Jets. But are these two teams headed in opposite directions?
New York has won twice outright as a road underdog this season, while losing tough games at home to New England and Indy. Can they de-claw the Jaguars and send them to a third consecutive defeat? The Jets opened as touchdown dogs and will have to make the most of their time on offense if Jacksonville’s ball-hogging ways continue. Jag’s QB Byron Leftwich and the offense have averaged 36 minutes in time-of-possession in two home games, an edge the Jets will need to counteract. www.PinnacleSports.com list the Jaguars as -7 -104 favorites for the tie in Jacksonville.
The contenders are distancing themselves from the pretenders early in 2006.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Until recently, sharp players routinely turned a profit using very little handicapping and simply playing underdogs. Blindly betting every home dog of +7.5 or more during NFL season became a staple that regularly cashed at the window. Then this traditional handicapping technique stopped working to the point that these "bread and butter" plays no longer brought home the bacon. In 2005, the "Sharps 101 playbook" was rewritten as favorites covered 58% of the time.
Although it’s only the fourth week of the season, at Pinnacle Sportsbook we’ve noticed that this trend may reestablish itself as good teams dominate. Teams that are 2-1 or 3-0 are a combined 32-12 (72.73%) against the spread. With underdogs of 10 or more points only covering 1/3 of games this season it certainly brings league parity into question.
There’s always been a gap between the "haves" and "have nots" in the NFL. Prior to the 2002 season, this gap was bridged by scheduling four games for each team based on the previous year’s performance. If a team finished last in its division, the "crème puff" factor dictated that it would get four games against equally bad teams.
Since 2002, new NFL scheduling rules dictate that only two games per year would be based on a team’s record from the preceding year. As a result, today’s NFL schedule now contains more games between mismatched teams than before. Consequently, bad teams lose more games while good teams win more often.
This was extremely evident last year when only 1 of 32 teams finished with an 8-8 record. With the ever-growing number of underdog players and more mismatches, there are now profitable opportunities to do what was previously unthinkable - back quality teams as large favorites. Since there are several underdog players at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, which also offers up to 60% better odds on NFL sides, there’s often great value to be found betting favorites.
One way to evaluate a team is to look at its offensive yards per play and the defensive yards allowed per play. As one would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow tend to win. While this isn’t exclusively accurate, this measure is at least as good a predictor of future performance as past game scores. Using the Internet and Excel, you can easily evaluate the entire league in just a few minutes. Scraping data and analyzing it in Excel is a mandatory skill for successful handicappers, so it’s worthwhile to provide a brief example of how simple it is.
Under the "Stats" section on NFL.com simply select "2005 regular season". At the bottom of the page under "Sortable team rankings", there are "Offense" and "Defense" options. Simply clicking the "Find stats" button after selecting total offense or defense, will give a number of statistics for every NFL team including offensive/defensive yards per play (Y/P).
Copy the offensive and defensive yards per play into an Excel spreadsheet sorted for each team’s individual stats. Then simply subtract the defensive yards per play from the offensive yards per play. If the "A" column is the team, and "B and C" are offensive and defensive yardages respectively, use the formula "=b1-c1" in column D. This will give a "yardage differential" for each team, which if positive, indicates a team that gains more yardage on offense than it surrenders. If done correctly, the spreadsheet should look like this:
Team
Y/P
Y/P
Net Yard Differential
Team
Y/P
Y/P
Net Yard Differential
San Francisco
4.1
5.7
-1.6
Philadelphia
5
5
0
Houston
4.2
5.8
-1.6
Tampa Bay
4.8
4.7
0.1
Buffalo
4.4
5.3
-0.9
Arizona
5.2
5.1
0.1
Detroit
4.5
5.1
-0.6
Green Bay
4.9
4.8
0.1
New Orleans
4.9
5.3
-0.4
Washington
5.1
4.9
0.2
New York (NYJ)
4.4
4.7
-0.3
Jacksonville
5
4.8
0.2
Tennessee
5
5.3
-0.3
New England
5.5
5.3
0.2
Baltimore
4.4
4.6
-0.2
Kansas City
5.8
5.4
0.4
Dallas
4.9
5.1
-0.2
Miami
5.1
4.7
0.4
St. Louis
5.4
5.6
-0.2
San Diego
5.4
5
0.4
Atlanta
5.1
5.2
-0.1
Carolina
5.1
4.6
0.5
Cleveland
4.9
5
-0.1
Denver
5.6
5.1
0.5
Minnesota
4.9
5
-0.1
New York (NYG)
5.5
5
0.5
Oakland
5
5.1
-0.1
Indianapolis
5.8
5.2
0.6
Chicago
4.4
4.4
0
Pittsburgh
5.4
4.6
0.8
Cincinnati
5.6
5.6
0
Seattle
5.8
4.9
0.9
The four worst teams in terms of yardage per play differential in 2005 were San Francisco, Houston, Buffalo and Detroit, while the four best were the New York Giants, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Betting lines often fail to adequately reflect the difference between the elite teams compared to the dregs. The top four were 6-2-1 against the spread and 9-0 straight up in 2005 against the bottom four.
While these results aren’t surprising, a yardage differential can also be used to analyze match-ups between nearly any two teams. There’s a "quick and dirty" rule for setting a spread using NFL yardage differential: each 0.15 yards per play is worth 1 point. As an example, let’s examine Monday’s game of Green Bay at Philadelphia.
According to NFL.com, the Eagles are gaining 6.7 yards per play this season, while allowing 5.0 yards per play – a differential of +1.7. The Packers are gaining 5.4 Y/P, while allowing 5.9 Y/P, for a net differential of -0.5. The Eagles’ net differential is 2.2 better; dividing by 0.15 suggests the Eagles should be about a 14.5 point favorite on a neutral field.
As with all tools for evaluating teams, this calculation is best used in conjunction with other handicapping methods and using common sense. Many statistical methods become far more viable after 4-6 games so the current season’s data can be analyzed. However, even at this early stage, these types of statistical methods can be a good way to look for new winning angles – like identifying under-priced big favorites.
What are players betting at the Pinnacle Online Sportsbook?
Ohio State (-7 +103) at Iowa
We initially offered the Buckeyes at -6.5 (-105) and took early public money. Ohio State has been a high-profile team for several years and continues to attract a lot of attention. If OSU wins this game, they face only one more top-25 team this season – at home versus rival Michigan. With major BCS ramifications on the line, this game has split opinion between the public and the sharps, with the professionals backing Iowa.
Georgia Tech +9 -104 at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech has a reputation as a team that starts strong but tends to fade midseason. They struggled against Cincinnati last week, trailing 10-5 at halftime before rallying with 17 fourth quarter points to win 29-13. None of the Hokies’ wins have been against quality opponents and bettors are punishing them for this. Virginia Tech opened at -13, which was quickly bet down to -9 by the public who favors Georgia Tech.
Indianapolis Colts -9 +100 at New York Jets
This line opened with Indianapolis giving 7.5 points where early bettors forced the line to -9. Despite moderately balanced action, there have been more wagers on the Colts, although the early wise guys clearly favor the Jets.
New England +6 -110 at Cincinnati Bengals
The undefeated Bengals are riding high following their road victory against the defending Super Bowl Champions, while the Patriots are reeling from a 17-7 home loss to Denver. The Pats opened getting 4 points and although they haven’t been bigger underdogs since 2004, the Bengals backing has been surprising. The sharps have been fairly split on this game – playing the Bengals at -4 and taking the Patriots at +6.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Until recently, sharp players routinely turned a profit using very little handicapping and simply playing underdogs. Blindly betting every home dog of +7.5 or more during NFL season became a staple that regularly cashed at the window. Then this traditional handicapping technique stopped working to the point that these "bread and butter" plays no longer brought home the bacon. In 2005, the "Sharps 101 playbook" was rewritten as favorites covered 58% of the time.
Although it’s only the fourth week of the season, at Pinnacle Sportsbook we’ve noticed that this trend may reestablish itself as good teams dominate. Teams that are 2-1 or 3-0 are a combined 32-12 (72.73%) against the spread. With underdogs of 10 or more points only covering 1/3 of games this season it certainly brings league parity into question.
There’s always been a gap between the "haves" and "have nots" in the NFL. Prior to the 2002 season, this gap was bridged by scheduling four games for each team based on the previous year’s performance. If a team finished last in its division, the "crème puff" factor dictated that it would get four games against equally bad teams.
Since 2002, new NFL scheduling rules dictate that only two games per year would be based on a team’s record from the preceding year. As a result, today’s NFL schedule now contains more games between mismatched teams than before. Consequently, bad teams lose more games while good teams win more often.
This was extremely evident last year when only 1 of 32 teams finished with an 8-8 record. With the ever-growing number of underdog players and more mismatches, there are now profitable opportunities to do what was previously unthinkable - back quality teams as large favorites. Since there are several underdog players at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, which also offers up to 60% better odds on NFL sides, there’s often great value to be found betting favorites.
One way to evaluate a team is to look at its offensive yards per play and the defensive yards allowed per play. As one would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow tend to win. While this isn’t exclusively accurate, this measure is at least as good a predictor of future performance as past game scores. Using the Internet and Excel, you can easily evaluate the entire league in just a few minutes. Scraping data and analyzing it in Excel is a mandatory skill for successful handicappers, so it’s worthwhile to provide a brief example of how simple it is.
Under the "Stats" section on NFL.com simply select "2005 regular season". At the bottom of the page under "Sortable team rankings", there are "Offense" and "Defense" options. Simply clicking the "Find stats" button after selecting total offense or defense, will give a number of statistics for every NFL team including offensive/defensive yards per play (Y/P).
Copy the offensive and defensive yards per play into an Excel spreadsheet sorted for each team’s individual stats. Then simply subtract the defensive yards per play from the offensive yards per play. If the "A" column is the team, and "B and C" are offensive and defensive yardages respectively, use the formula "=b1-c1" in column D. This will give a "yardage differential" for each team, which if positive, indicates a team that gains more yardage on offense than it surrenders. If done correctly, the spreadsheet should look like this:
Team
Y/P
Y/P
Net Yard Differential
Team
Y/P
Y/P
Net Yard Differential
San Francisco
4.1
5.7
-1.6
Philadelphia
5
5
0
Houston
4.2
5.8
-1.6
Tampa Bay
4.8
4.7
0.1
Buffalo
4.4
5.3
-0.9
Arizona
5.2
5.1
0.1
Detroit
4.5
5.1
-0.6
Green Bay
4.9
4.8
0.1
New Orleans
4.9
5.3
-0.4
Washington
5.1
4.9
0.2
New York (NYJ)
4.4
4.7
-0.3
Jacksonville
5
4.8
0.2
Tennessee
5
5.3
-0.3
New England
5.5
5.3
0.2
Baltimore
4.4
4.6
-0.2
Kansas City
5.8
5.4
0.4
Dallas
4.9
5.1
-0.2
Miami
5.1
4.7
0.4
St. Louis
5.4
5.6
-0.2
San Diego
5.4
5
0.4
Atlanta
5.1
5.2
-0.1
Carolina
5.1
4.6
0.5
Cleveland
4.9
5
-0.1
Denver
5.6
5.1
0.5
Minnesota
4.9
5
-0.1
New York (NYG)
5.5
5
0.5
Oakland
5
5.1
-0.1
Indianapolis
5.8
5.2
0.6
Chicago
4.4
4.4
0
Pittsburgh
5.4
4.6
0.8
Cincinnati
5.6
5.6
0
Seattle
5.8
4.9
0.9
The four worst teams in terms of yardage per play differential in 2005 were San Francisco, Houston, Buffalo and Detroit, while the four best were the New York Giants, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Betting lines often fail to adequately reflect the difference between the elite teams compared to the dregs. The top four were 6-2-1 against the spread and 9-0 straight up in 2005 against the bottom four.
While these results aren’t surprising, a yardage differential can also be used to analyze match-ups between nearly any two teams. There’s a "quick and dirty" rule for setting a spread using NFL yardage differential: each 0.15 yards per play is worth 1 point. As an example, let’s examine Monday’s game of Green Bay at Philadelphia.
According to NFL.com, the Eagles are gaining 6.7 yards per play this season, while allowing 5.0 yards per play – a differential of +1.7. The Packers are gaining 5.4 Y/P, while allowing 5.9 Y/P, for a net differential of -0.5. The Eagles’ net differential is 2.2 better; dividing by 0.15 suggests the Eagles should be about a 14.5 point favorite on a neutral field.
As with all tools for evaluating teams, this calculation is best used in conjunction with other handicapping methods and using common sense. Many statistical methods become far more viable after 4-6 games so the current season’s data can be analyzed. However, even at this early stage, these types of statistical methods can be a good way to look for new winning angles – like identifying under-priced big favorites.
What are players betting at the Pinnacle Online Sportsbook?
Ohio State (-7 +103) at Iowa
We initially offered the Buckeyes at -6.5 (-105) and took early public money. Ohio State has been a high-profile team for several years and continues to attract a lot of attention. If OSU wins this game, they face only one more top-25 team this season – at home versus rival Michigan. With major BCS ramifications on the line, this game has split opinion between the public and the sharps, with the professionals backing Iowa.
Georgia Tech +9 -104 at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech has a reputation as a team that starts strong but tends to fade midseason. They struggled against Cincinnati last week, trailing 10-5 at halftime before rallying with 17 fourth quarter points to win 29-13. None of the Hokies’ wins have been against quality opponents and bettors are punishing them for this. Virginia Tech opened at -13, which was quickly bet down to -9 by the public who favors Georgia Tech.
Indianapolis Colts -9 +100 at New York Jets
This line opened with Indianapolis giving 7.5 points where early bettors forced the line to -9. Despite moderately balanced action, there have been more wagers on the Colts, although the early wise guys clearly favor the Jets.
New England +6 -110 at Cincinnati Bengals
The undefeated Bengals are riding high following their road victory against the defending Super Bowl Champions, while the Patriots are reeling from a 17-7 home loss to Denver. The Pats opened getting 4 points and although they haven’t been bigger underdogs since 2004, the Bengals backing has been surprising. The sharps have been fairly split on this game – playing the Bengals at -4 and taking the Patriots at +6.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Professional players dedicate many hours each week shopping for the best price, and will often spend more time in this endeavor than handicapping. Given that the sharps are betting high limits each week, this is time well spent even if it adds only 1% to the bottom line. But how can the average player making $100 bets get the best price without turning odds checking into a full-time job?
Half the battle is won in preparation, so before beginning to handicap, have your money in place. Ideally, you’ll take advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbook’s -104 NFL pricing which offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other online sportsbooks. Plus you’ll also have one or two "recreational books", which use inflated lines on the favorites.
It’s also a good idea to keep a fair amount of money liquid in a NETeller account, where it can be put into play quickly. Most sports books, including Pinnacle Sportsbetting, instantly credit accounts with NETeller deposits. Even limiting odds comparison to just 10 minutes per week, this small amount of preparation still adds 1% to the expected return.
Another tactic bettors can use to always get the best price doesn’t involve any additional work, but instead emphasizes the importance of timing. Instead of handicapping during mid-week or Friday for weekend games, players should begin analyzing the games immediately after the weeks’ games are completed. Reviewing college football games Saturday night or Sunday morning and NFL games Sunday evening, gives players one more money-spinning opportunity – betting into overnight lines.
Many sportsbooks typically post overnight lines on all major sports. College and pro football usually go up Sunday night, and are very volatile when the lines are first posted. These lines don’t have to be extremely sharp because early betting quickly tightens prices against reduced limits.
A well known anecdote among linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports is that the first few bets taken on any overnight line are ALWAYS sharp plays. These bets are made by smaller bettors who have already analyzed the games and don’t mind the lower limits. The early bettors are often long-term winners, who are among the few that actually get the best of it time and again. However, it’s worth conceding this edge to the early sharps as they provide an invaluable service by sharpening the lines, allowing PinnacleSports.com to raise limits to significant levels. Without these early "$100 geniuses", we couldn’t offer $30,000 limits on NFL games (which are sometimes blue-circled to $50,000 or higher per wager).
I can’t stress strongly enough that if your average bet-size is $500 or less, the one thing you can do to win more is bet against overnight lines. This is especially the case with the smaller markets like NCAA football totals. If betting into early lines seems a little intimidating, try this experiment: For four weeks, track the opening lines. When making plays, make a record of whether you would have gotten a better price on the opener, or against the closing line. Nearly all players will find that with the exception of significant injury news or changeable weather conditions, the line moves during the week give them a worse price than if they had bet it early.
For those already doing early handicapping and using a moderate sportsbook selection, there are other ways to be a smarter shopper while still working your day job.
If you’re willing to spend just a little more time bargain-hunting, the best time to do so is when the lines are moving more quickly. For example, say the line at the Pinnacle Sportsbook is shifting against you, try making your play at a recreational book that moves its lines more slowly. On the other hand, if you like the direction of the line change, wait for the market to stabilize, and take the best price. The trick is to recognize when these movements occur. After the normal bouncing around of openers, there are two other factors that routinely cause substantial movement: injury announcements and large bets before game time.
In the final 60 minutes before a game kicks off, there are often dramatic changes in the price. This is often caused by syndicate play, which waits until close to post when the betting limits are highest everywhere. If you’re prepared to stare at a live lines screen for the 60 minutes before a set of games goes off (for example the early NFL games every Sunday), you’ll find many line moves that are big enough to scalp. Waiting until this time period to place bets allows you to either play at the fast-moving sites like Pinnacle Sports Book or the slower moving recreational books depending on which way lines move.
Injury plays are another way to make a killing, but bettors have to be quick on the trigger. When a star player is listed as doubtful or out of the next game, there will be a tidal wave of action. The premier books may either take the game offline, circle the game and set lower limits, or drastically change the price when the news comes out. Beating the book to the punch gives an almost certain scalping opportunity by playing the other side after the line movements. Even if you miss the initial surge, a lot of smaller sportsbooks will leave the old prices up.
What are our customers betting?
Northwestern v Nevada O/U 47.5
With over 100 NCAA Div-IA teams, not to mention the various Div-IAA teams, we have to price a lot of product quickly for openers every Sunday afternoon. Some numbers - especially totals – can be a bit loose when they open. This total was set at 52 and was quickly corrected by our "$20 geniuses". When four of our smaller sharps play the same side of a college total opener, we get to a good price cheaply.
Baltimore -6.5 -105 v. Cleveland
The Ravens have played dominantly on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 55-6 this season. The Browns have been lackluster, losing to New Orleans and Cincinnati. We opened Baltimore at -4 and favorite money poured in. Early money on the favorite was taken at the rate of twenty bets on the Ravens for each one accepted on the Browns.
Philadelphia -6 -110 v. San Francisco
The Eagles opened as a 4-point favorite and were immediately bet up by the public. Once again, a majority of the money was fading the underdog with five bets on the Eagles for every one on the 49ers.
Atlanta -3.5 -108 v. New Orleans
Although this game isn’t until Monday night, it’s our most heavily traded game this week. The Saints opened at +3 -115 and were driven up to +3.5 +100. While the betting is fairly equal on both sides, market drift has pushed this price up. We are seeing a lot of favorites heavily backed and we can’t help but wonder whether the favorites will repeat their 58% cover rate ATS in 2005.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines and rebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Professional players dedicate many hours each week shopping for the best price, and will often spend more time in this endeavor than handicapping. Given that the sharps are betting high limits each week, this is time well spent even if it adds only 1% to the bottom line. But how can the average player making $100 bets get the best price without turning odds checking into a full-time job?
Half the battle is won in preparation, so before beginning to handicap, have your money in place. Ideally, you’ll take advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbook’s -104 NFL pricing which offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other online sportsbooks. Plus you’ll also have one or two "recreational books", which use inflated lines on the favorites.
It’s also a good idea to keep a fair amount of money liquid in a NETeller account, where it can be put into play quickly. Most sports books, including Pinnacle Sportsbetting, instantly credit accounts with NETeller deposits. Even limiting odds comparison to just 10 minutes per week, this small amount of preparation still adds 1% to the expected return.
Another tactic bettors can use to always get the best price doesn’t involve any additional work, but instead emphasizes the importance of timing. Instead of handicapping during mid-week or Friday for weekend games, players should begin analyzing the games immediately after the weeks’ games are completed. Reviewing college football games Saturday night or Sunday morning and NFL games Sunday evening, gives players one more money-spinning opportunity – betting into overnight lines.
Many sportsbooks typically post overnight lines on all major sports. College and pro football usually go up Sunday night, and are very volatile when the lines are first posted. These lines don’t have to be extremely sharp because early betting quickly tightens prices against reduced limits.
A well known anecdote among linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports is that the first few bets taken on any overnight line are ALWAYS sharp plays. These bets are made by smaller bettors who have already analyzed the games and don’t mind the lower limits. The early bettors are often long-term winners, who are among the few that actually get the best of it time and again. However, it’s worth conceding this edge to the early sharps as they provide an invaluable service by sharpening the lines, allowing PinnacleSports.com to raise limits to significant levels. Without these early "$100 geniuses", we couldn’t offer $30,000 limits on NFL games (which are sometimes blue-circled to $50,000 or higher per wager).
I can’t stress strongly enough that if your average bet-size is $500 or less, the one thing you can do to win more is bet against overnight lines. This is especially the case with the smaller markets like NCAA football totals. If betting into early lines seems a little intimidating, try this experiment: For four weeks, track the opening lines. When making plays, make a record of whether you would have gotten a better price on the opener, or against the closing line. Nearly all players will find that with the exception of significant injury news or changeable weather conditions, the line moves during the week give them a worse price than if they had bet it early.
For those already doing early handicapping and using a moderate sportsbook selection, there are other ways to be a smarter shopper while still working your day job.
If you’re willing to spend just a little more time bargain-hunting, the best time to do so is when the lines are moving more quickly. For example, say the line at the Pinnacle Sportsbook is shifting against you, try making your play at a recreational book that moves its lines more slowly. On the other hand, if you like the direction of the line change, wait for the market to stabilize, and take the best price. The trick is to recognize when these movements occur. After the normal bouncing around of openers, there are two other factors that routinely cause substantial movement: injury announcements and large bets before game time.
In the final 60 minutes before a game kicks off, there are often dramatic changes in the price. This is often caused by syndicate play, which waits until close to post when the betting limits are highest everywhere. If you’re prepared to stare at a live lines screen for the 60 minutes before a set of games goes off (for example the early NFL games every Sunday), you’ll find many line moves that are big enough to scalp. Waiting until this time period to place bets allows you to either play at the fast-moving sites like Pinnacle Sports Book or the slower moving recreational books depending on which way lines move.
Injury plays are another way to make a killing, but bettors have to be quick on the trigger. When a star player is listed as doubtful or out of the next game, there will be a tidal wave of action. The premier books may either take the game offline, circle the game and set lower limits, or drastically change the price when the news comes out. Beating the book to the punch gives an almost certain scalping opportunity by playing the other side after the line movements. Even if you miss the initial surge, a lot of smaller sportsbooks will leave the old prices up.
What are our customers betting?
Northwestern v Nevada O/U 47.5
With over 100 NCAA Div-IA teams, not to mention the various Div-IAA teams, we have to price a lot of product quickly for openers every Sunday afternoon. Some numbers - especially totals – can be a bit loose when they open. This total was set at 52 and was quickly corrected by our "$20 geniuses". When four of our smaller sharps play the same side of a college total opener, we get to a good price cheaply.
Baltimore -6.5 -105 v. Cleveland
The Ravens have played dominantly on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 55-6 this season. The Browns have been lackluster, losing to New Orleans and Cincinnati. We opened Baltimore at -4 and favorite money poured in. Early money on the favorite was taken at the rate of twenty bets on the Ravens for each one accepted on the Browns.
Philadelphia -6 -110 v. San Francisco
The Eagles opened as a 4-point favorite and were immediately bet up by the public. Once again, a majority of the money was fading the underdog with five bets on the Eagles for every one on the 49ers.
Atlanta -3.5 -108 v. New Orleans
Although this game isn’t until Monday night, it’s our most heavily traded game this week. The Saints opened at +3 -115 and were driven up to +3.5 +100. While the betting is fairly equal on both sides, market drift has pushed this price up. We are seeing a lot of favorites heavily backed and we can’t help but wonder whether the favorites will repeat their 58% cover rate ATS in 2005.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines and rebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse
Interesting release by Simon. I love correlation plays.
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Every once in a while, despite the best bookmaking and balancing of positions, sportsbook managers find a surprise in their daily summaries, like a player hitting a $1 million 8-team parlay. Though the occasional player hitting a home-run on a parlay should be expected, when a big one hits, it can catch sportsbooks off guard. Parlays are one of the most misunderstood tools in the betting industry, which is why books offer them. Like the familiar proverb, give a player enough rope, and…… well, you know the rest.
There are two common ways parlays are played that guarantee the book a long-term profit. Many recreational players are focused on the "big win" like hitting eight plays at -110, to win $100,000 from a $66 stake. While it can be a blast when the first three legs hit, I’ve seen people nearly go into cardiac arrest after winning the first seven, leaving one play pending on Monday night for an all-or-nothing life changing win. Sweaty and stressed, these parlay junkies invariably end up cracking and trying to hedge out the parlay.
The fundamental problem with playing parlays is that risk management is impossible. Assume our friend who was betting $66 tickets had a bankroll of $10,000. By Monday night, this parlay bettor is risking $51,200 (in equity) to win $48,800. They’re now risking more than five-sixths of their bankroll on one play. For recreational gambling this is fine, but for a professional, this kind of tactic would make Kelly roll over in his grave.
Another common play is parlaying a lot of favorites that "can’t lose" to generate a payout close to even money. One parlay for college football I saw included: Va. Tech -535, Rutgers -405, NC State -405 and Purdue -1070. In this parlay, the player risked $100 to win $101.80. This common strategy of parlaying favorites is a classic case of mathematical denial. The player FEELS like all the sure things will win, and the thought is reinforced by seeing many of the selections succeed with the occasional parlay paying off. The mathematical certainty however, is that every parlay selection added increases the "juice" paid. Parlaying big favorites like this (without sophisticated handicapping) will NOT make money in the long run.
If this is the case, then why do wise guys play parlays? One reason sharps play parlays is that they may find a correlation. Correlated parlays are the "holy grail" of sports betting – finding and betting these almost guarantees a win. These are so dangerous that even small correlations (e.g. in MLB, playing the visitor with the over or the home team with the under) can gradually destroy a sportsbook. Sharp players identify these correlations and hoard the information along with the names of sportsbooks known to take action on these correlated bets. If you try to make a parlay at Pinnacle Sportsbook and our software rejects the play, there’s a good chance the play is correlated.
There’s another type of parlay that sharps use which called an "action" parlay. Many times, a player wants to bet more than a book’s limit. This is especially prevalent against overnight lines or smaller markets like Tennis and NASCAR. Assume you see an opening line that is badly off e.g. +150 when the fair line is +100. When discovering these huge edges, bettors logically want to bet as much as they can.
One way to do this would be to play the +150 selection parlayed with 10 random games at -110. If you win and lose exactly five of these selections, you’ve effectively bet five times as much on the +150 selection, but lowered the payoff (since you paid more juice with the random selections). This isn’t a good idea if you have a normal 53% play versus -110, but it’s a tool to remember when there’s a monster play in a small market. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting we’ve customized the software to defend against this type of strategy, but there may be less astute sportsbooks out there that haven’t.
Another way sharps use this strategy is to play two or three-team parlays with one open leg. They’ll do their usual plays for the early legs, and close them out with the monsters. For example, they’ll risk $1,000 on a three-team parlay and after winning the first two legs, they can effectively risk $3300 to win $3000 by closing that last leg.
If you play a lot of parlays (or even teasers, which are just modified parlays), you need to spend significantly more time on risk management. Not only could you be overexposed on a game (like the 8-team parlay discussed earlier), but you could be underexposed as well.
If the first leg of a two-team teaser/parlay has lost, you have no action on the second leg. Sharper players will routinely evaluate their positions at the conclusion of each leg, and make additional bets to ensure they have an adequate position on each game they like.
What are our players betting this week?
Michigan (+5.5 +100) v. Notre Dame
In one of the most heavily bet college games, all the money has been on the Wolverines. We opened the Fighting Irish as 7.5-point favorites, but the public favored Michigan by a three-to-one ratio. To this point the sharps have been curiously absent on this game.
Oakland (+11.5 -101) v. Baltimore
We opened Baltimore as an 8-point favorite against the Raiders, who were routed 27-0 by San Diego Monday night. A few sharps played Oakland at the open, but they were swamped by public money. Public backers of Baltimore have five times as many wagers as Raider backers. It’s very common to see public bettors fade a team that looks terrible in the first week, even though more often than not, teams revert to the mean after an "Oaklandish" performance. A few early sharps agreed by backing the Raiders before the early runaway line. Expect the other sharps to back Oakland hard once the line stabilizes.
Super Featherweight Championship: Barrera -150 v. Juarez +140
These two fighters battled out to an apparent draw on May 21st earlier this year. Thirty minutes after a draw was announced, the judges came back and declared Barrera the winner due to a corrected scorecard error. How do you handle something like that? Rematch! Barrera opened as a -200 favorite. Although twice as many bettors have backed Barrera, the sharps are on Juarez, and have driven the price down.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Every once in a while, despite the best bookmaking and balancing of positions, sportsbook managers find a surprise in their daily summaries, like a player hitting a $1 million 8-team parlay. Though the occasional player hitting a home-run on a parlay should be expected, when a big one hits, it can catch sportsbooks off guard. Parlays are one of the most misunderstood tools in the betting industry, which is why books offer them. Like the familiar proverb, give a player enough rope, and…… well, you know the rest.
There are two common ways parlays are played that guarantee the book a long-term profit. Many recreational players are focused on the "big win" like hitting eight plays at -110, to win $100,000 from a $66 stake. While it can be a blast when the first three legs hit, I’ve seen people nearly go into cardiac arrest after winning the first seven, leaving one play pending on Monday night for an all-or-nothing life changing win. Sweaty and stressed, these parlay junkies invariably end up cracking and trying to hedge out the parlay.
The fundamental problem with playing parlays is that risk management is impossible. Assume our friend who was betting $66 tickets had a bankroll of $10,000. By Monday night, this parlay bettor is risking $51,200 (in equity) to win $48,800. They’re now risking more than five-sixths of their bankroll on one play. For recreational gambling this is fine, but for a professional, this kind of tactic would make Kelly roll over in his grave.
Another common play is parlaying a lot of favorites that "can’t lose" to generate a payout close to even money. One parlay for college football I saw included: Va. Tech -535, Rutgers -405, NC State -405 and Purdue -1070. In this parlay, the player risked $100 to win $101.80. This common strategy of parlaying favorites is a classic case of mathematical denial. The player FEELS like all the sure things will win, and the thought is reinforced by seeing many of the selections succeed with the occasional parlay paying off. The mathematical certainty however, is that every parlay selection added increases the "juice" paid. Parlaying big favorites like this (without sophisticated handicapping) will NOT make money in the long run.
If this is the case, then why do wise guys play parlays? One reason sharps play parlays is that they may find a correlation. Correlated parlays are the "holy grail" of sports betting – finding and betting these almost guarantees a win. These are so dangerous that even small correlations (e.g. in MLB, playing the visitor with the over or the home team with the under) can gradually destroy a sportsbook. Sharp players identify these correlations and hoard the information along with the names of sportsbooks known to take action on these correlated bets. If you try to make a parlay at Pinnacle Sportsbook and our software rejects the play, there’s a good chance the play is correlated.
There’s another type of parlay that sharps use which called an "action" parlay. Many times, a player wants to bet more than a book’s limit. This is especially prevalent against overnight lines or smaller markets like Tennis and NASCAR. Assume you see an opening line that is badly off e.g. +150 when the fair line is +100. When discovering these huge edges, bettors logically want to bet as much as they can.
One way to do this would be to play the +150 selection parlayed with 10 random games at -110. If you win and lose exactly five of these selections, you’ve effectively bet five times as much on the +150 selection, but lowered the payoff (since you paid more juice with the random selections). This isn’t a good idea if you have a normal 53% play versus -110, but it’s a tool to remember when there’s a monster play in a small market. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting we’ve customized the software to defend against this type of strategy, but there may be less astute sportsbooks out there that haven’t.
Another way sharps use this strategy is to play two or three-team parlays with one open leg. They’ll do their usual plays for the early legs, and close them out with the monsters. For example, they’ll risk $1,000 on a three-team parlay and after winning the first two legs, they can effectively risk $3300 to win $3000 by closing that last leg.
If you play a lot of parlays (or even teasers, which are just modified parlays), you need to spend significantly more time on risk management. Not only could you be overexposed on a game (like the 8-team parlay discussed earlier), but you could be underexposed as well.
If the first leg of a two-team teaser/parlay has lost, you have no action on the second leg. Sharper players will routinely evaluate their positions at the conclusion of each leg, and make additional bets to ensure they have an adequate position on each game they like.
What are our players betting this week?
Michigan (+5.5 +100) v. Notre Dame
In one of the most heavily bet college games, all the money has been on the Wolverines. We opened the Fighting Irish as 7.5-point favorites, but the public favored Michigan by a three-to-one ratio. To this point the sharps have been curiously absent on this game.
Oakland (+11.5 -101) v. Baltimore
We opened Baltimore as an 8-point favorite against the Raiders, who were routed 27-0 by San Diego Monday night. A few sharps played Oakland at the open, but they were swamped by public money. Public backers of Baltimore have five times as many wagers as Raider backers. It’s very common to see public bettors fade a team that looks terrible in the first week, even though more often than not, teams revert to the mean after an "Oaklandish" performance. A few early sharps agreed by backing the Raiders before the early runaway line. Expect the other sharps to back Oakland hard once the line stabilizes.
Super Featherweight Championship: Barrera -150 v. Juarez +140
These two fighters battled out to an apparent draw on May 21st earlier this year. Thirty minutes after a draw was announced, the judges came back and declared Barrera the winner due to a corrected scorecard error. How do you handle something like that? Rematch! Barrera opened as a -200 favorite. Although twice as many bettors have backed Barrera, the sharps are on Juarez, and have driven the price down.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Odds to Win The Heisman Trophy & BCS Championship
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
odds to Win The Heisman Trophy And BCS Championship from pinnaclesports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (August 29, 2006)—Although the 2006 college football season doesn’t kick off until later this week, the national champion and Heisman Trophy debates are already heating up. Adding fuel to the pre-season NCAA football hype, PinnacleSports.com today released updated odds on who will be crowned the nation’s top collegiate player and which team will capture the BCS National Championship.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com currently lists Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn as the pre-season favorite to become the Fighting Irish’s eighth Heisman Trophy winner at 3/1 odds. Oklahoma junior running back Adrian Peterson has been listed with the second best odds to win college football’s top honor at 4/1. Dual threat quarterback Troy Smith (9/1) will attempt to bring Ohio State it’s first Heisman Trophy since Eddie George in 1995, while teammates Michael Bush (12/1) and Brian Brohm (14/1) both hope to become Louisville’s first Heisman winner. Other leading candidates to be named college football’s most outstanding player include: West Virginia quarterback Steve Slaton (16/1); Florida signal caller Chris Leak (20/1); Cal running back Marshawn Lynch (21/1); Michigan running back Mike Hart (23/1); Ohio State wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (23/1); Iowa quarterback Drew Tate (25/1) and Notre Dame tailback Darius Walker (26/1).
While all 119 Division I teams enter the new season on equal footing with championship aspirations, the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe only a handful stand any real chance of winning the BCS Championship Game on January 8th. In what’s certainly a surprise, the West Virginia Mountaineers are currently a 13/2 favorite to win the national championship mainly because of their relatively soft schedule and betting to date. Notre Dame is a slight underdog to capture their 14th national title at 7/1 odds, followed by top-ranked Ohio State at 15/2. Despite losing the last two Heisman Trophy winners and a number of other stars, PinnacleSports.com believes USC is a solid championship contender again this season, listing the Trojans at 8/1 to win another national title. The Chris Leak-led Florida Gators are 10/1 to bring a championship back to the Swamp, while reigning national champion Texas currently stands at 12/1 to repeat this year. Other teams that could be victorious in the January 8th BCS Championship Game include: Auburn (14/1), Oklahoma (14/1), Florida State (21/1), Miami (21/1), Louisville (24/1), LSU (26/1), California (28/1) and Michigan (29/1).
PinnacleSports.com also offers odds on which teams will win several of the major Division I conference championships as well as lines on total regular season wins by a number of college teams. In addition, the sportsbook has posted betting lines on every game taking place during the opening weekend of the season as well as a number of marquee match-ups taking place throughout the entire 2006 NCAA campaign. For a more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Odds To Win 2006 Heisman Trophy
Brady Quinn 3/1
Adrian Peterson 4/1
Troy Smith 9/1
Michael Bush 12/1
Brian Brohm 14/1
Steve Slaton 16/1
Chris Leak 20/1
Marshawn Lynch 21/1
Mike Hart 23/1
Ted Ginn Jr. 23/1
Drew Tate 25/1
Darius Walker 26/1
Kenny Irons 27/1
Chad Henne 29/1
Kyle Wright 32/1
Drew Stanton 35/1
Kenneth Darby 37/1
Blake Mitchell 37/1
Drew Weatherford 37/1
JaMarcus Russell 37/1
Reggie Ball 37/1
Odds To Win BCS Championship Game
West Virginia 13/2
Notre Dame 7/1
Ohio State 15/2
USC 8/1
Florida 11/1
Texas 12/1
Auburn 14/1
Oklahoma 14/1
Florida State 21/1
Miami 21/1
Louisville 24/1
LSU 26/1
California 28/1
Michigan 29/1
Iowa 35/1
Virginia Tech 58/1
Clemson 71/1
Penn State 74/1
Alabama 85/1
Michigan State 81/1
UCLA 85/1
Georgia 85/1
Nebraska 85/1
Oregon 85/1
Arizona State 85/1
Tennessee 85/1
Arkansas 100/1
Boston College 120/1
TCU 120/1
Purdue 200/1
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
odds to Win The Heisman Trophy And BCS Championship from pinnaclesports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (August 29, 2006)—Although the 2006 college football season doesn’t kick off until later this week, the national champion and Heisman Trophy debates are already heating up. Adding fuel to the pre-season NCAA football hype, PinnacleSports.com today released updated odds on who will be crowned the nation’s top collegiate player and which team will capture the BCS National Championship.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com currently lists Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn as the pre-season favorite to become the Fighting Irish’s eighth Heisman Trophy winner at 3/1 odds. Oklahoma junior running back Adrian Peterson has been listed with the second best odds to win college football’s top honor at 4/1. Dual threat quarterback Troy Smith (9/1) will attempt to bring Ohio State it’s first Heisman Trophy since Eddie George in 1995, while teammates Michael Bush (12/1) and Brian Brohm (14/1) both hope to become Louisville’s first Heisman winner. Other leading candidates to be named college football’s most outstanding player include: West Virginia quarterback Steve Slaton (16/1); Florida signal caller Chris Leak (20/1); Cal running back Marshawn Lynch (21/1); Michigan running back Mike Hart (23/1); Ohio State wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (23/1); Iowa quarterback Drew Tate (25/1) and Notre Dame tailback Darius Walker (26/1).
While all 119 Division I teams enter the new season on equal footing with championship aspirations, the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe only a handful stand any real chance of winning the BCS Championship Game on January 8th. In what’s certainly a surprise, the West Virginia Mountaineers are currently a 13/2 favorite to win the national championship mainly because of their relatively soft schedule and betting to date. Notre Dame is a slight underdog to capture their 14th national title at 7/1 odds, followed by top-ranked Ohio State at 15/2. Despite losing the last two Heisman Trophy winners and a number of other stars, PinnacleSports.com believes USC is a solid championship contender again this season, listing the Trojans at 8/1 to win another national title. The Chris Leak-led Florida Gators are 10/1 to bring a championship back to the Swamp, while reigning national champion Texas currently stands at 12/1 to repeat this year. Other teams that could be victorious in the January 8th BCS Championship Game include: Auburn (14/1), Oklahoma (14/1), Florida State (21/1), Miami (21/1), Louisville (24/1), LSU (26/1), California (28/1) and Michigan (29/1).
PinnacleSports.com also offers odds on which teams will win several of the major Division I conference championships as well as lines on total regular season wins by a number of college teams. In addition, the sportsbook has posted betting lines on every game taking place during the opening weekend of the season as well as a number of marquee match-ups taking place throughout the entire 2006 NCAA campaign. For a more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Odds To Win 2006 Heisman Trophy
Brady Quinn 3/1
Adrian Peterson 4/1
Troy Smith 9/1
Michael Bush 12/1
Brian Brohm 14/1
Steve Slaton 16/1
Chris Leak 20/1
Marshawn Lynch 21/1
Mike Hart 23/1
Ted Ginn Jr. 23/1
Drew Tate 25/1
Darius Walker 26/1
Kenny Irons 27/1
Chad Henne 29/1
Kyle Wright 32/1
Drew Stanton 35/1
Kenneth Darby 37/1
Blake Mitchell 37/1
Drew Weatherford 37/1
JaMarcus Russell 37/1
Reggie Ball 37/1
Odds To Win BCS Championship Game
West Virginia 13/2
Notre Dame 7/1
Ohio State 15/2
USC 8/1
Florida 11/1
Texas 12/1
Auburn 14/1
Oklahoma 14/1
Florida State 21/1
Miami 21/1
Louisville 24/1
LSU 26/1
California 28/1
Michigan 29/1
Iowa 35/1
Virginia Tech 58/1
Clemson 71/1
Penn State 74/1
Alabama 85/1
Michigan State 81/1
UCLA 85/1
Georgia 85/1
Nebraska 85/1
Oregon 85/1
Arizona State 85/1
Tennessee 85/1
Arkansas 100/1
Boston College 120/1
TCU 120/1
Purdue 200/1
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Debating the merits of betting on preseason NFL, I’m often asked about the logic of betting games when the starters spend most of their time on the sideline. While many professional players avoid preseason football, a substantial number of sharps at Pinnacle Sports betting still have action, despite this concern and do so for one reason – profit. With fewer professional players betting (compared to the regular season), preseason games give an additional advantage as the markets are not as efficient, allowing sports bettors "in the know" to realize better returns.
Successful NFL bettors understand the differences between regular season and preseason games. A coach’s preseason focus isn’t purely centered on winning, but embraces a range of objectives, including: 1. avoiding injury to starters; 2. giving starters enough playing time to shake the off the rust, and 3. evaluating players who are close to making the team.
During the preseason non-starters see a lot of playing time even though most have only practiced the offensive and defensive schemes for a few weeks. The offensive side is more difficult to pick up quickly – offensive linemen must coordinate blocking against potential blitzes, and new quarterbacks need to learn to read defenses under pressure.
The effect during this period is that offenses are usually trying catch-up to defenses. Consequently, where a typical NFL game averages about 43 points per game, preseason games only average 37.5 points, with the median being even lower. While it’s surprising how much lower-scoring preseason games are, it’s even more startling that the markets are not adjusted accordingly. If you played every single "under" in preseason, you would have won 55% of your bets over the last six years.
Another trend that might surprise players is how well underdogs have done in the preseason – like the ‘under’ trend, betting every dog would also show a small profit in recent years. I don’t recommend that bettors blindly play all underdogs and unders, as any trend will eventually turn sour as markets become more efficient. For example, examine this year’s preseason totals. The average total for the first week was under 35 while last year it was over 36. You may win or lose betting a trend, but you won’t be getting the best of it.
Instead of strictly chasing a trend, try to understand why it’s occurring – asking "why" will often present additional opportunities. Once you understand that the scoring distributions are different, betting options that are derived on standard distributions might provide the chance for large profits. With this in mind, a possible angle to consider looking at is teasers...
One of the most important factors to consider when doing preseason analysis is whether the coach actually wants to win the game. Teams coming off a disappointing year are more likely to play for a win in the hope of building confidence and momentum for the season.
Some coaches will be far more experimental during preseason, taking the opportunity to try different combinations of players, or unusual plays that are rarely used in the regular season. Indianapolis’s opening onsides kick, and Cincinnati’s multiple flea-flickers are perfect examples of this. There’s a balance to be struck between the benefits of experimentation and the negative impact losing has on morale. Good teams have less need to build confidence and aren’t unsettled by preseason losses. Simply understanding the mentality of both teams’ coaches will provide profitable opportunities.
An additional factor to consider is how much playing time starters will get? Many coaches not only announce how much the starters will play, but when they’ll play. If a strong team is playing its starters for the whole first half against a weaker team that’s only using starters for one drive, there’s an obvious play. Another way to benefit from knowing starter playing time is to bet half and quarter lines. If both teams are playing starters for the first half, you have an expectation of a higher scoring first half (which is just the opposite of the regular season, where the second halves have slightly more scoring).
Later in the preseason, you can often find value backing winless teams with at least two preseason losses. While coaches don’t necessarily try to win every game (for the reasons already discussed), no team wants to enter the regular season after going winless during exhibition play.
Pinnacle Sports betting is currently offering up to 60% better value on sides and 50% better odds on totals during the NFL preseason. Find a smarter way to bet at PinnacleSports.com
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Debating the merits of betting on preseason NFL, I’m often asked about the logic of betting games when the starters spend most of their time on the sideline. While many professional players avoid preseason football, a substantial number of sharps at Pinnacle Sports betting still have action, despite this concern and do so for one reason – profit. With fewer professional players betting (compared to the regular season), preseason games give an additional advantage as the markets are not as efficient, allowing sports bettors "in the know" to realize better returns.
Successful NFL bettors understand the differences between regular season and preseason games. A coach’s preseason focus isn’t purely centered on winning, but embraces a range of objectives, including: 1. avoiding injury to starters; 2. giving starters enough playing time to shake the off the rust, and 3. evaluating players who are close to making the team.
During the preseason non-starters see a lot of playing time even though most have only practiced the offensive and defensive schemes for a few weeks. The offensive side is more difficult to pick up quickly – offensive linemen must coordinate blocking against potential blitzes, and new quarterbacks need to learn to read defenses under pressure.
The effect during this period is that offenses are usually trying catch-up to defenses. Consequently, where a typical NFL game averages about 43 points per game, preseason games only average 37.5 points, with the median being even lower. While it’s surprising how much lower-scoring preseason games are, it’s even more startling that the markets are not adjusted accordingly. If you played every single "under" in preseason, you would have won 55% of your bets over the last six years.
Another trend that might surprise players is how well underdogs have done in the preseason – like the ‘under’ trend, betting every dog would also show a small profit in recent years. I don’t recommend that bettors blindly play all underdogs and unders, as any trend will eventually turn sour as markets become more efficient. For example, examine this year’s preseason totals. The average total for the first week was under 35 while last year it was over 36. You may win or lose betting a trend, but you won’t be getting the best of it.
Instead of strictly chasing a trend, try to understand why it’s occurring – asking "why" will often present additional opportunities. Once you understand that the scoring distributions are different, betting options that are derived on standard distributions might provide the chance for large profits. With this in mind, a possible angle to consider looking at is teasers...
One of the most important factors to consider when doing preseason analysis is whether the coach actually wants to win the game. Teams coming off a disappointing year are more likely to play for a win in the hope of building confidence and momentum for the season.
Some coaches will be far more experimental during preseason, taking the opportunity to try different combinations of players, or unusual plays that are rarely used in the regular season. Indianapolis’s opening onsides kick, and Cincinnati’s multiple flea-flickers are perfect examples of this. There’s a balance to be struck between the benefits of experimentation and the negative impact losing has on morale. Good teams have less need to build confidence and aren’t unsettled by preseason losses. Simply understanding the mentality of both teams’ coaches will provide profitable opportunities.
An additional factor to consider is how much playing time starters will get? Many coaches not only announce how much the starters will play, but when they’ll play. If a strong team is playing its starters for the whole first half against a weaker team that’s only using starters for one drive, there’s an obvious play. Another way to benefit from knowing starter playing time is to bet half and quarter lines. If both teams are playing starters for the first half, you have an expectation of a higher scoring first half (which is just the opposite of the regular season, where the second halves have slightly more scoring).
Later in the preseason, you can often find value backing winless teams with at least two preseason losses. While coaches don’t necessarily try to win every game (for the reasons already discussed), no team wants to enter the regular season after going winless during exhibition play.
Pinnacle Sports betting is currently offering up to 60% better value on sides and 50% better odds on totals during the NFL preseason. Find a smarter way to bet at PinnacleSports.com
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Friday, August 18, 2006
College Football Lines are Open at Pinnacle Sports
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
College Football Betting Open at pinnaclesports.com
Online Sportsbook Opens Betting On NCAA Week 1 & Marquee Match-ups Of 2006 Season
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (August 18, 2006)—While the kickoff to the 2006 NCAA football season isn’t for another two weeks, fans can already get in on the action on all of the season’s big games at PinnacleSports.com. The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has already opened wagering on every game taking place during the first week of the college football as well as on several marquee match-ups taking place each week of the NCAA season.
The first day of college games takes place on Thursday, August 31st with Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks traveling to conference rival Mississippi State where PinnacleSports.com lists the host Bulldogs as 6 point underdogs in Starkville. On the first Saturday of games, Heisman hopeful Brady Quinn and Notre Dame kick off the second season of the Charlie Weis regime at Georgia Tech where the Fighting Irish are 7.5 point favorites. The biggest match-up of the opening week pits in-state rivals Miami (Florida) and Florida State squaring off in the Orange Bowl where the Hurricanes are favored by 3.5 points over the Seminoles.
In addition to posting betting lines on the full schedule of games taking place during the first week of the NCAA season, PinnacleSports.com is also taking wagers on several of the most anticipated games taking place each week during the entire 14-week regular season. These marquee match-ups include:
Ohio State (pick ‘em) at reigning national champion Texas on September 9th
Michigan (+6) visiting Notre Dame on September 16th
October 7th’s "Red River Shootout" between Texas (-2.5) and Oklahoma
Florida (-4) vs Georgia at "The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" October 28th
Louisville (-3.5) hosting West Virginia on November 4th
Michigan (+6) at rival Ohio State November 18th
"The Iron Bowl" November 18th with Auburn (-3.5) facing in-state rival Alabama
Notre Dame (+3) hoping to avenge 2005’s last second loss to USC November 25th
Florida (+1.5) traveling to Florida State on November 25th
Cross-town rivals USC (-12) facing UCLA December 2nd
"It’s simply not enough to give our players the opportunity to bet on the first week of college games, so for the second straight year we’ve offered lines on the best match-ups of each week throughout the entire season," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Whether bettors like Ohio State to beat reigning national champs Texas in Austin on September 9th, or favor Notre Dame avenging last season’s last second loss to USC, they’ll find lines on all of the biggest games at PinnacleSports.com."
PinnacleSports.com also has compiled odds on a number of NCAA teams winning the BCS Championship Game where Notre Dame is a slight favorite at +684 (i.e., win $6.84 for every $1 bet) to win their first title since 1988 over surprise West Virginia (+703) and top-ranked Ohio State (+730). In addition, the online sportsbook lists Brady Quinn as the early favorite to become the seventh Heisman Trophy winner in Notre Dame history at 7/4 odds. Bettors can also place wagers on the total number of regular season wins by every Division IA NCAA team exclusively at PinnacleSports.com.
For a more information and a complete list of odds, please visit the football section at www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
College Football Betting Open at pinnaclesports.com
Online Sportsbook Opens Betting On NCAA Week 1 & Marquee Match-ups Of 2006 Season
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (August 18, 2006)—While the kickoff to the 2006 NCAA football season isn’t for another two weeks, fans can already get in on the action on all of the season’s big games at PinnacleSports.com. The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has already opened wagering on every game taking place during the first week of the college football as well as on several marquee match-ups taking place each week of the NCAA season.
The first day of college games takes place on Thursday, August 31st with Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks traveling to conference rival Mississippi State where PinnacleSports.com lists the host Bulldogs as 6 point underdogs in Starkville. On the first Saturday of games, Heisman hopeful Brady Quinn and Notre Dame kick off the second season of the Charlie Weis regime at Georgia Tech where the Fighting Irish are 7.5 point favorites. The biggest match-up of the opening week pits in-state rivals Miami (Florida) and Florida State squaring off in the Orange Bowl where the Hurricanes are favored by 3.5 points over the Seminoles.
In addition to posting betting lines on the full schedule of games taking place during the first week of the NCAA season, PinnacleSports.com is also taking wagers on several of the most anticipated games taking place each week during the entire 14-week regular season. These marquee match-ups include:
Ohio State (pick ‘em) at reigning national champion Texas on September 9th
Michigan (+6) visiting Notre Dame on September 16th
October 7th’s "Red River Shootout" between Texas (-2.5) and Oklahoma
Florida (-4) vs Georgia at "The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" October 28th
Louisville (-3.5) hosting West Virginia on November 4th
Michigan (+6) at rival Ohio State November 18th
"The Iron Bowl" November 18th with Auburn (-3.5) facing in-state rival Alabama
Notre Dame (+3) hoping to avenge 2005’s last second loss to USC November 25th
Florida (+1.5) traveling to Florida State on November 25th
Cross-town rivals USC (-12) facing UCLA December 2nd
"It’s simply not enough to give our players the opportunity to bet on the first week of college games, so for the second straight year we’ve offered lines on the best match-ups of each week throughout the entire season," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Whether bettors like Ohio State to beat reigning national champs Texas in Austin on September 9th, or favor Notre Dame avenging last season’s last second loss to USC, they’ll find lines on all of the biggest games at PinnacleSports.com."
PinnacleSports.com also has compiled odds on a number of NCAA teams winning the BCS Championship Game where Notre Dame is a slight favorite at +684 (i.e., win $6.84 for every $1 bet) to win their first title since 1988 over surprise West Virginia (+703) and top-ranked Ohio State (+730). In addition, the online sportsbook lists Brady Quinn as the early favorite to become the seventh Heisman Trophy winner in Notre Dame history at 7/4 odds. Bettors can also place wagers on the total number of regular season wins by every Division IA NCAA team exclusively at PinnacleSports.com.
For a more information and a complete list of odds, please visit the football section at www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
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