The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Until recently, sharp players routinely turned a profit using very little handicapping and simply playing underdogs. Blindly betting every home dog of +7.5 or more during NFL season became a staple that regularly cashed at the window. Then this traditional handicapping technique stopped working to the point that these "bread and butter" plays no longer brought home the bacon. In 2005, the "Sharps 101 playbook" was rewritten as favorites covered 58% of the time.
Although it’s only the fourth week of the season, at Pinnacle Sportsbook we’ve noticed that this trend may reestablish itself as good teams dominate. Teams that are 2-1 or 3-0 are a combined 32-12 (72.73%) against the spread. With underdogs of 10 or more points only covering 1/3 of games this season it certainly brings league parity into question.
There’s always been a gap between the "haves" and "have nots" in the NFL. Prior to the 2002 season, this gap was bridged by scheduling four games for each team based on the previous year’s performance. If a team finished last in its division, the "crème puff" factor dictated that it would get four games against equally bad teams.
Since 2002, new NFL scheduling rules dictate that only two games per year would be based on a team’s record from the preceding year. As a result, today’s NFL schedule now contains more games between mismatched teams than before. Consequently, bad teams lose more games while good teams win more often.
This was extremely evident last year when only 1 of 32 teams finished with an 8-8 record. With the ever-growing number of underdog players and more mismatches, there are now profitable opportunities to do what was previously unthinkable - back quality teams as large favorites. Since there are several underdog players at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, which also offers up to 60% better odds on NFL sides, there’s often great value to be found betting favorites.
One way to evaluate a team is to look at its offensive yards per play and the defensive yards allowed per play. As one would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow tend to win. While this isn’t exclusively accurate, this measure is at least as good a predictor of future performance as past game scores. Using the Internet and Excel, you can easily evaluate the entire league in just a few minutes. Scraping data and analyzing it in Excel is a mandatory skill for successful handicappers, so it’s worthwhile to provide a brief example of how simple it is.
Under the "Stats" section on NFL.com simply select "2005 regular season". At the bottom of the page under "Sortable team rankings", there are "Offense" and "Defense" options. Simply clicking the "Find stats" button after selecting total offense or defense, will give a number of statistics for every NFL team including offensive/defensive yards per play (Y/P).
Copy the offensive and defensive yards per play into an Excel spreadsheet sorted for each team’s individual stats. Then simply subtract the defensive yards per play from the offensive yards per play. If the "A" column is the team, and "B and C" are offensive and defensive yardages respectively, use the formula "=b1-c1" in column D. This will give a "yardage differential" for each team, which if positive, indicates a team that gains more yardage on offense than it surrenders. If done correctly, the spreadsheet should look like this:
Team
Y/P
Y/P
Net Yard Differential
Team
Y/P
Y/P
Net Yard Differential
San Francisco
4.1
5.7
-1.6
Philadelphia
5
5
0
Houston
4.2
5.8
-1.6
Tampa Bay
4.8
4.7
0.1
Buffalo
4.4
5.3
-0.9
Arizona
5.2
5.1
0.1
Detroit
4.5
5.1
-0.6
Green Bay
4.9
4.8
0.1
New Orleans
4.9
5.3
-0.4
Washington
5.1
4.9
0.2
New York (NYJ)
4.4
4.7
-0.3
Jacksonville
5
4.8
0.2
Tennessee
5
5.3
-0.3
New England
5.5
5.3
0.2
Baltimore
4.4
4.6
-0.2
Kansas City
5.8
5.4
0.4
Dallas
4.9
5.1
-0.2
Miami
5.1
4.7
0.4
St. Louis
5.4
5.6
-0.2
San Diego
5.4
5
0.4
Atlanta
5.1
5.2
-0.1
Carolina
5.1
4.6
0.5
Cleveland
4.9
5
-0.1
Denver
5.6
5.1
0.5
Minnesota
4.9
5
-0.1
New York (NYG)
5.5
5
0.5
Oakland
5
5.1
-0.1
Indianapolis
5.8
5.2
0.6
Chicago
4.4
4.4
0
Pittsburgh
5.4
4.6
0.8
Cincinnati
5.6
5.6
0
Seattle
5.8
4.9
0.9
The four worst teams in terms of yardage per play differential in 2005 were San Francisco, Houston, Buffalo and Detroit, while the four best were the New York Giants, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Betting lines often fail to adequately reflect the difference between the elite teams compared to the dregs. The top four were 6-2-1 against the spread and 9-0 straight up in 2005 against the bottom four.
While these results aren’t surprising, a yardage differential can also be used to analyze match-ups between nearly any two teams. There’s a "quick and dirty" rule for setting a spread using NFL yardage differential: each 0.15 yards per play is worth 1 point. As an example, let’s examine Monday’s game of Green Bay at Philadelphia.
According to NFL.com, the Eagles are gaining 6.7 yards per play this season, while allowing 5.0 yards per play – a differential of +1.7. The Packers are gaining 5.4 Y/P, while allowing 5.9 Y/P, for a net differential of -0.5. The Eagles’ net differential is 2.2 better; dividing by 0.15 suggests the Eagles should be about a 14.5 point favorite on a neutral field.
As with all tools for evaluating teams, this calculation is best used in conjunction with other handicapping methods and using common sense. Many statistical methods become far more viable after 4-6 games so the current season’s data can be analyzed. However, even at this early stage, these types of statistical methods can be a good way to look for new winning angles – like identifying under-priced big favorites.
What are players betting at the Pinnacle Online Sportsbook?
Ohio State (-7 +103) at Iowa
We initially offered the Buckeyes at -6.5 (-105) and took early public money. Ohio State has been a high-profile team for several years and continues to attract a lot of attention. If OSU wins this game, they face only one more top-25 team this season – at home versus rival Michigan. With major BCS ramifications on the line, this game has split opinion between the public and the sharps, with the professionals backing Iowa.
Georgia Tech +9 -104 at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech has a reputation as a team that starts strong but tends to fade midseason. They struggled against Cincinnati last week, trailing 10-5 at halftime before rallying with 17 fourth quarter points to win 29-13. None of the Hokies’ wins have been against quality opponents and bettors are punishing them for this. Virginia Tech opened at -13, which was quickly bet down to -9 by the public who favors Georgia Tech.
Indianapolis Colts -9 +100 at New York Jets
This line opened with Indianapolis giving 7.5 points where early bettors forced the line to -9. Despite moderately balanced action, there have been more wagers on the Colts, although the early wise guys clearly favor the Jets.
New England +6 -110 at Cincinnati Bengals
The undefeated Bengals are riding high following their road victory against the defending Super Bowl Champions, while the Patriots are reeling from a 17-7 home loss to Denver. The Pats opened getting 4 points and although they haven’t been bigger underdogs since 2004, the Bengals backing has been surprising. The sharps have been fairly split on this game – playing the Bengals at -4 and taking the Patriots at +6.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Professional players dedicate many hours each week shopping for the best price, and will often spend more time in this endeavor than handicapping. Given that the sharps are betting high limits each week, this is time well spent even if it adds only 1% to the bottom line. But how can the average player making $100 bets get the best price without turning odds checking into a full-time job?
Half the battle is won in preparation, so before beginning to handicap, have your money in place. Ideally, you’ll take advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbook’s -104 NFL pricing which offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other online sportsbooks. Plus you’ll also have one or two "recreational books", which use inflated lines on the favorites.
It’s also a good idea to keep a fair amount of money liquid in a NETeller account, where it can be put into play quickly. Most sports books, including Pinnacle Sportsbetting, instantly credit accounts with NETeller deposits. Even limiting odds comparison to just 10 minutes per week, this small amount of preparation still adds 1% to the expected return.
Another tactic bettors can use to always get the best price doesn’t involve any additional work, but instead emphasizes the importance of timing. Instead of handicapping during mid-week or Friday for weekend games, players should begin analyzing the games immediately after the weeks’ games are completed. Reviewing college football games Saturday night or Sunday morning and NFL games Sunday evening, gives players one more money-spinning opportunity – betting into overnight lines.
Many sportsbooks typically post overnight lines on all major sports. College and pro football usually go up Sunday night, and are very volatile when the lines are first posted. These lines don’t have to be extremely sharp because early betting quickly tightens prices against reduced limits.
A well known anecdote among linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports is that the first few bets taken on any overnight line are ALWAYS sharp plays. These bets are made by smaller bettors who have already analyzed the games and don’t mind the lower limits. The early bettors are often long-term winners, who are among the few that actually get the best of it time and again. However, it’s worth conceding this edge to the early sharps as they provide an invaluable service by sharpening the lines, allowing PinnacleSports.com to raise limits to significant levels. Without these early "$100 geniuses", we couldn’t offer $30,000 limits on NFL games (which are sometimes blue-circled to $50,000 or higher per wager).
I can’t stress strongly enough that if your average bet-size is $500 or less, the one thing you can do to win more is bet against overnight lines. This is especially the case with the smaller markets like NCAA football totals. If betting into early lines seems a little intimidating, try this experiment: For four weeks, track the opening lines. When making plays, make a record of whether you would have gotten a better price on the opener, or against the closing line. Nearly all players will find that with the exception of significant injury news or changeable weather conditions, the line moves during the week give them a worse price than if they had bet it early.
For those already doing early handicapping and using a moderate sportsbook selection, there are other ways to be a smarter shopper while still working your day job.
If you’re willing to spend just a little more time bargain-hunting, the best time to do so is when the lines are moving more quickly. For example, say the line at the Pinnacle Sportsbook is shifting against you, try making your play at a recreational book that moves its lines more slowly. On the other hand, if you like the direction of the line change, wait for the market to stabilize, and take the best price. The trick is to recognize when these movements occur. After the normal bouncing around of openers, there are two other factors that routinely cause substantial movement: injury announcements and large bets before game time.
In the final 60 minutes before a game kicks off, there are often dramatic changes in the price. This is often caused by syndicate play, which waits until close to post when the betting limits are highest everywhere. If you’re prepared to stare at a live lines screen for the 60 minutes before a set of games goes off (for example the early NFL games every Sunday), you’ll find many line moves that are big enough to scalp. Waiting until this time period to place bets allows you to either play at the fast-moving sites like Pinnacle Sports Book or the slower moving recreational books depending on which way lines move.
Injury plays are another way to make a killing, but bettors have to be quick on the trigger. When a star player is listed as doubtful or out of the next game, there will be a tidal wave of action. The premier books may either take the game offline, circle the game and set lower limits, or drastically change the price when the news comes out. Beating the book to the punch gives an almost certain scalping opportunity by playing the other side after the line movements. Even if you miss the initial surge, a lot of smaller sportsbooks will leave the old prices up.
What are our customers betting?
Northwestern v Nevada O/U 47.5
With over 100 NCAA Div-IA teams, not to mention the various Div-IAA teams, we have to price a lot of product quickly for openers every Sunday afternoon. Some numbers - especially totals – can be a bit loose when they open. This total was set at 52 and was quickly corrected by our "$20 geniuses". When four of our smaller sharps play the same side of a college total opener, we get to a good price cheaply.
Baltimore -6.5 -105 v. Cleveland
The Ravens have played dominantly on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 55-6 this season. The Browns have been lackluster, losing to New Orleans and Cincinnati. We opened Baltimore at -4 and favorite money poured in. Early money on the favorite was taken at the rate of twenty bets on the Ravens for each one accepted on the Browns.
Philadelphia -6 -110 v. San Francisco
The Eagles opened as a 4-point favorite and were immediately bet up by the public. Once again, a majority of the money was fading the underdog with five bets on the Eagles for every one on the 49ers.
Atlanta -3.5 -108 v. New Orleans
Although this game isn’t until Monday night, it’s our most heavily traded game this week. The Saints opened at +3 -115 and were driven up to +3.5 +100. While the betting is fairly equal on both sides, market drift has pushed this price up. We are seeing a lot of favorites heavily backed and we can’t help but wonder whether the favorites will repeat their 58% cover rate ATS in 2005.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines and rebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Professional players dedicate many hours each week shopping for the best price, and will often spend more time in this endeavor than handicapping. Given that the sharps are betting high limits each week, this is time well spent even if it adds only 1% to the bottom line. But how can the average player making $100 bets get the best price without turning odds checking into a full-time job?
Half the battle is won in preparation, so before beginning to handicap, have your money in place. Ideally, you’ll take advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbook’s -104 NFL pricing which offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other online sportsbooks. Plus you’ll also have one or two "recreational books", which use inflated lines on the favorites.
It’s also a good idea to keep a fair amount of money liquid in a NETeller account, where it can be put into play quickly. Most sports books, including Pinnacle Sportsbetting, instantly credit accounts with NETeller deposits. Even limiting odds comparison to just 10 minutes per week, this small amount of preparation still adds 1% to the expected return.
Another tactic bettors can use to always get the best price doesn’t involve any additional work, but instead emphasizes the importance of timing. Instead of handicapping during mid-week or Friday for weekend games, players should begin analyzing the games immediately after the weeks’ games are completed. Reviewing college football games Saturday night or Sunday morning and NFL games Sunday evening, gives players one more money-spinning opportunity – betting into overnight lines.
Many sportsbooks typically post overnight lines on all major sports. College and pro football usually go up Sunday night, and are very volatile when the lines are first posted. These lines don’t have to be extremely sharp because early betting quickly tightens prices against reduced limits.
A well known anecdote among linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports is that the first few bets taken on any overnight line are ALWAYS sharp plays. These bets are made by smaller bettors who have already analyzed the games and don’t mind the lower limits. The early bettors are often long-term winners, who are among the few that actually get the best of it time and again. However, it’s worth conceding this edge to the early sharps as they provide an invaluable service by sharpening the lines, allowing PinnacleSports.com to raise limits to significant levels. Without these early "$100 geniuses", we couldn’t offer $30,000 limits on NFL games (which are sometimes blue-circled to $50,000 or higher per wager).
I can’t stress strongly enough that if your average bet-size is $500 or less, the one thing you can do to win more is bet against overnight lines. This is especially the case with the smaller markets like NCAA football totals. If betting into early lines seems a little intimidating, try this experiment: For four weeks, track the opening lines. When making plays, make a record of whether you would have gotten a better price on the opener, or against the closing line. Nearly all players will find that with the exception of significant injury news or changeable weather conditions, the line moves during the week give them a worse price than if they had bet it early.
For those already doing early handicapping and using a moderate sportsbook selection, there are other ways to be a smarter shopper while still working your day job.
If you’re willing to spend just a little more time bargain-hunting, the best time to do so is when the lines are moving more quickly. For example, say the line at the Pinnacle Sportsbook is shifting against you, try making your play at a recreational book that moves its lines more slowly. On the other hand, if you like the direction of the line change, wait for the market to stabilize, and take the best price. The trick is to recognize when these movements occur. After the normal bouncing around of openers, there are two other factors that routinely cause substantial movement: injury announcements and large bets before game time.
In the final 60 minutes before a game kicks off, there are often dramatic changes in the price. This is often caused by syndicate play, which waits until close to post when the betting limits are highest everywhere. If you’re prepared to stare at a live lines screen for the 60 minutes before a set of games goes off (for example the early NFL games every Sunday), you’ll find many line moves that are big enough to scalp. Waiting until this time period to place bets allows you to either play at the fast-moving sites like Pinnacle Sports Book or the slower moving recreational books depending on which way lines move.
Injury plays are another way to make a killing, but bettors have to be quick on the trigger. When a star player is listed as doubtful or out of the next game, there will be a tidal wave of action. The premier books may either take the game offline, circle the game and set lower limits, or drastically change the price when the news comes out. Beating the book to the punch gives an almost certain scalping opportunity by playing the other side after the line movements. Even if you miss the initial surge, a lot of smaller sportsbooks will leave the old prices up.
What are our customers betting?
Northwestern v Nevada O/U 47.5
With over 100 NCAA Div-IA teams, not to mention the various Div-IAA teams, we have to price a lot of product quickly for openers every Sunday afternoon. Some numbers - especially totals – can be a bit loose when they open. This total was set at 52 and was quickly corrected by our "$20 geniuses". When four of our smaller sharps play the same side of a college total opener, we get to a good price cheaply.
Baltimore -6.5 -105 v. Cleveland
The Ravens have played dominantly on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 55-6 this season. The Browns have been lackluster, losing to New Orleans and Cincinnati. We opened Baltimore at -4 and favorite money poured in. Early money on the favorite was taken at the rate of twenty bets on the Ravens for each one accepted on the Browns.
Philadelphia -6 -110 v. San Francisco
The Eagles opened as a 4-point favorite and were immediately bet up by the public. Once again, a majority of the money was fading the underdog with five bets on the Eagles for every one on the 49ers.
Atlanta -3.5 -108 v. New Orleans
Although this game isn’t until Monday night, it’s our most heavily traded game this week. The Saints opened at +3 -115 and were driven up to +3.5 +100. While the betting is fairly equal on both sides, market drift has pushed this price up. We are seeing a lot of favorites heavily backed and we can’t help but wonder whether the favorites will repeat their 58% cover rate ATS in 2005.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines and rebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse
Interesting release by Simon. I love correlation plays.
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Every once in a while, despite the best bookmaking and balancing of positions, sportsbook managers find a surprise in their daily summaries, like a player hitting a $1 million 8-team parlay. Though the occasional player hitting a home-run on a parlay should be expected, when a big one hits, it can catch sportsbooks off guard. Parlays are one of the most misunderstood tools in the betting industry, which is why books offer them. Like the familiar proverb, give a player enough rope, and…… well, you know the rest.
There are two common ways parlays are played that guarantee the book a long-term profit. Many recreational players are focused on the "big win" like hitting eight plays at -110, to win $100,000 from a $66 stake. While it can be a blast when the first three legs hit, I’ve seen people nearly go into cardiac arrest after winning the first seven, leaving one play pending on Monday night for an all-or-nothing life changing win. Sweaty and stressed, these parlay junkies invariably end up cracking and trying to hedge out the parlay.
The fundamental problem with playing parlays is that risk management is impossible. Assume our friend who was betting $66 tickets had a bankroll of $10,000. By Monday night, this parlay bettor is risking $51,200 (in equity) to win $48,800. They’re now risking more than five-sixths of their bankroll on one play. For recreational gambling this is fine, but for a professional, this kind of tactic would make Kelly roll over in his grave.
Another common play is parlaying a lot of favorites that "can’t lose" to generate a payout close to even money. One parlay for college football I saw included: Va. Tech -535, Rutgers -405, NC State -405 and Purdue -1070. In this parlay, the player risked $100 to win $101.80. This common strategy of parlaying favorites is a classic case of mathematical denial. The player FEELS like all the sure things will win, and the thought is reinforced by seeing many of the selections succeed with the occasional parlay paying off. The mathematical certainty however, is that every parlay selection added increases the "juice" paid. Parlaying big favorites like this (without sophisticated handicapping) will NOT make money in the long run.
If this is the case, then why do wise guys play parlays? One reason sharps play parlays is that they may find a correlation. Correlated parlays are the "holy grail" of sports betting – finding and betting these almost guarantees a win. These are so dangerous that even small correlations (e.g. in MLB, playing the visitor with the over or the home team with the under) can gradually destroy a sportsbook. Sharp players identify these correlations and hoard the information along with the names of sportsbooks known to take action on these correlated bets. If you try to make a parlay at Pinnacle Sportsbook and our software rejects the play, there’s a good chance the play is correlated.
There’s another type of parlay that sharps use which called an "action" parlay. Many times, a player wants to bet more than a book’s limit. This is especially prevalent against overnight lines or smaller markets like Tennis and NASCAR. Assume you see an opening line that is badly off e.g. +150 when the fair line is +100. When discovering these huge edges, bettors logically want to bet as much as they can.
One way to do this would be to play the +150 selection parlayed with 10 random games at -110. If you win and lose exactly five of these selections, you’ve effectively bet five times as much on the +150 selection, but lowered the payoff (since you paid more juice with the random selections). This isn’t a good idea if you have a normal 53% play versus -110, but it’s a tool to remember when there’s a monster play in a small market. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting we’ve customized the software to defend against this type of strategy, but there may be less astute sportsbooks out there that haven’t.
Another way sharps use this strategy is to play two or three-team parlays with one open leg. They’ll do their usual plays for the early legs, and close them out with the monsters. For example, they’ll risk $1,000 on a three-team parlay and after winning the first two legs, they can effectively risk $3300 to win $3000 by closing that last leg.
If you play a lot of parlays (or even teasers, which are just modified parlays), you need to spend significantly more time on risk management. Not only could you be overexposed on a game (like the 8-team parlay discussed earlier), but you could be underexposed as well.
If the first leg of a two-team teaser/parlay has lost, you have no action on the second leg. Sharper players will routinely evaluate their positions at the conclusion of each leg, and make additional bets to ensure they have an adequate position on each game they like.
What are our players betting this week?
Michigan (+5.5 +100) v. Notre Dame
In one of the most heavily bet college games, all the money has been on the Wolverines. We opened the Fighting Irish as 7.5-point favorites, but the public favored Michigan by a three-to-one ratio. To this point the sharps have been curiously absent on this game.
Oakland (+11.5 -101) v. Baltimore
We opened Baltimore as an 8-point favorite against the Raiders, who were routed 27-0 by San Diego Monday night. A few sharps played Oakland at the open, but they were swamped by public money. Public backers of Baltimore have five times as many wagers as Raider backers. It’s very common to see public bettors fade a team that looks terrible in the first week, even though more often than not, teams revert to the mean after an "Oaklandish" performance. A few early sharps agreed by backing the Raiders before the early runaway line. Expect the other sharps to back Oakland hard once the line stabilizes.
Super Featherweight Championship: Barrera -150 v. Juarez +140
These two fighters battled out to an apparent draw on May 21st earlier this year. Thirty minutes after a draw was announced, the judges came back and declared Barrera the winner due to a corrected scorecard error. How do you handle something like that? Rematch! Barrera opened as a -200 favorite. Although twice as many bettors have backed Barrera, the sharps are on Juarez, and have driven the price down.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Every once in a while, despite the best bookmaking and balancing of positions, sportsbook managers find a surprise in their daily summaries, like a player hitting a $1 million 8-team parlay. Though the occasional player hitting a home-run on a parlay should be expected, when a big one hits, it can catch sportsbooks off guard. Parlays are one of the most misunderstood tools in the betting industry, which is why books offer them. Like the familiar proverb, give a player enough rope, and…… well, you know the rest.
There are two common ways parlays are played that guarantee the book a long-term profit. Many recreational players are focused on the "big win" like hitting eight plays at -110, to win $100,000 from a $66 stake. While it can be a blast when the first three legs hit, I’ve seen people nearly go into cardiac arrest after winning the first seven, leaving one play pending on Monday night for an all-or-nothing life changing win. Sweaty and stressed, these parlay junkies invariably end up cracking and trying to hedge out the parlay.
The fundamental problem with playing parlays is that risk management is impossible. Assume our friend who was betting $66 tickets had a bankroll of $10,000. By Monday night, this parlay bettor is risking $51,200 (in equity) to win $48,800. They’re now risking more than five-sixths of their bankroll on one play. For recreational gambling this is fine, but for a professional, this kind of tactic would make Kelly roll over in his grave.
Another common play is parlaying a lot of favorites that "can’t lose" to generate a payout close to even money. One parlay for college football I saw included: Va. Tech -535, Rutgers -405, NC State -405 and Purdue -1070. In this parlay, the player risked $100 to win $101.80. This common strategy of parlaying favorites is a classic case of mathematical denial. The player FEELS like all the sure things will win, and the thought is reinforced by seeing many of the selections succeed with the occasional parlay paying off. The mathematical certainty however, is that every parlay selection added increases the "juice" paid. Parlaying big favorites like this (without sophisticated handicapping) will NOT make money in the long run.
If this is the case, then why do wise guys play parlays? One reason sharps play parlays is that they may find a correlation. Correlated parlays are the "holy grail" of sports betting – finding and betting these almost guarantees a win. These are so dangerous that even small correlations (e.g. in MLB, playing the visitor with the over or the home team with the under) can gradually destroy a sportsbook. Sharp players identify these correlations and hoard the information along with the names of sportsbooks known to take action on these correlated bets. If you try to make a parlay at Pinnacle Sportsbook and our software rejects the play, there’s a good chance the play is correlated.
There’s another type of parlay that sharps use which called an "action" parlay. Many times, a player wants to bet more than a book’s limit. This is especially prevalent against overnight lines or smaller markets like Tennis and NASCAR. Assume you see an opening line that is badly off e.g. +150 when the fair line is +100. When discovering these huge edges, bettors logically want to bet as much as they can.
One way to do this would be to play the +150 selection parlayed with 10 random games at -110. If you win and lose exactly five of these selections, you’ve effectively bet five times as much on the +150 selection, but lowered the payoff (since you paid more juice with the random selections). This isn’t a good idea if you have a normal 53% play versus -110, but it’s a tool to remember when there’s a monster play in a small market. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting we’ve customized the software to defend against this type of strategy, but there may be less astute sportsbooks out there that haven’t.
Another way sharps use this strategy is to play two or three-team parlays with one open leg. They’ll do their usual plays for the early legs, and close them out with the monsters. For example, they’ll risk $1,000 on a three-team parlay and after winning the first two legs, they can effectively risk $3300 to win $3000 by closing that last leg.
If you play a lot of parlays (or even teasers, which are just modified parlays), you need to spend significantly more time on risk management. Not only could you be overexposed on a game (like the 8-team parlay discussed earlier), but you could be underexposed as well.
If the first leg of a two-team teaser/parlay has lost, you have no action on the second leg. Sharper players will routinely evaluate their positions at the conclusion of each leg, and make additional bets to ensure they have an adequate position on each game they like.
What are our players betting this week?
Michigan (+5.5 +100) v. Notre Dame
In one of the most heavily bet college games, all the money has been on the Wolverines. We opened the Fighting Irish as 7.5-point favorites, but the public favored Michigan by a three-to-one ratio. To this point the sharps have been curiously absent on this game.
Oakland (+11.5 -101) v. Baltimore
We opened Baltimore as an 8-point favorite against the Raiders, who were routed 27-0 by San Diego Monday night. A few sharps played Oakland at the open, but they were swamped by public money. Public backers of Baltimore have five times as many wagers as Raider backers. It’s very common to see public bettors fade a team that looks terrible in the first week, even though more often than not, teams revert to the mean after an "Oaklandish" performance. A few early sharps agreed by backing the Raiders before the early runaway line. Expect the other sharps to back Oakland hard once the line stabilizes.
Super Featherweight Championship: Barrera -150 v. Juarez +140
These two fighters battled out to an apparent draw on May 21st earlier this year. Thirty minutes after a draw was announced, the judges came back and declared Barrera the winner due to a corrected scorecard error. How do you handle something like that? Rematch! Barrera opened as a -200 favorite. Although twice as many bettors have backed Barrera, the sharps are on Juarez, and have driven the price down.
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