Odds On Dancing With THe Stars "Final Four"
Mario Lopez Remains Favorite At PinnacleSports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 30, 2006)—After nearly two months, ABC’s hit show "Dancing With The Stars" has hit the home stretch as only four celebrity teams remain in the competition. In the next two weeks, Mario Lopez, Emmitt Smith, Monique Coleman and Joey Lawrence and their professional partners will try to impress the television audience and judges with various dance routines. With the hit reality show nearing its finale, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on who’ll win "Dancing With The Stars".
The first bookmaker to post odds on "Dancing With The Stars," PinnacleSports.com has updated betting lines on the show’s finale and continues to list former teen heartthrob, Mario Lopez as the favorite to win the show. After originally opening at 3/1 odds to win the competition in August, the former "Saved By The Bell" star has seen the most backing from bettors as he’s waltzed his way through the competition and is now a 5/6 favorite to win it all. Showing that his quick footwork on the gridiron has translated onto the dance floor, PinnacleSports.com lists the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith at 7/4 odds to add the reality show title to his collection of Super Bowl rings. The only remaining female on the show, Monique Coleman is currently a 9/1 long shot to emerge as the next dancing star, along with former child star Joey Lawrence.
"Mario Lopez has been the favorite to win Dancing With The Stars among our bettors since the celebrity competitors were first announced in August," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "While Lopez has shown that he’s clearly the best dancer among the contestants, his chances may be hurt by Emmitt Smith’s popularity and potentially splitting votes with fellow teen heartthrob Joey Lawrence."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win Dancing With The Stars
Contestant
Current Odds
Opening Odds
Mario Lopez
5/6
3/1
Emmitt Smith
7/4
14/1
Monique Coleman
9/1
9/2
Joey Lawrence
9/1
6/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Immediate Release from Pinnacle
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
dallas Mavericks favored to win 2007 nba championship
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds To Win NBA Title
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 24, 2006)—With tip-off of the 2006-07 basketball season taking place next week, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on all 30 NBA teams winning the league championship. The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com currently lists Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks as a 4/1 favorite to avenge last year’s loss in the NBA Finals and capture the franchise’s first ever championship.
With Amare Stoudemire returning to the lineup along side reigning two-time league MVP Steve Nash, the Phoenix Suns should be even more explosive this year and are currently listed at 11/2 to win the NBA title. Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs begin the season attempting to become the next NBA dynasty and are also listed at 11/2 to win their third championship in five years. Although they return nearly every key player from last year’s team, Dwayne Wade, Shaquille O’Neal and the rest of the reigning NBA champion Miami Heat are listed at just 6/1 to repeat this season. PinnacleSports.com believes that the New Jersey Nets (9/1), led by the trio of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, will emerge as solid title contenders from the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the sportsbook lists LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers at 10/1 to ascend to the NBA throne, while the Detroit Pistons are 11/1 to bring a title back to Motown.
After landing four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace in the offseason, the Chicago Bulls (19/1) mix of young talent and veteran leadership should help make them a contender in ’07. While not in the limelight like the Lakers, the LA Clippers (22/1) were Hollywood’s best team last year and are poised to make another playoff run. The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming will help return the Houston Rockets (24/1) to the playoff caliber team they were in 2004-05. Playoff teams a year ago, Washington Wizards (43/1), Sacremento Kings (49/1), Denver Nuggets (51/1), Indiana Pacers (64/1), Los Angeles Lakers (67/1) and Memphis Grizzlies (75/1) are on the outside looking in at the top title contenders according to the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com.
Although there are hopes in the Big Apple that the Knicks will improve on last season’s pitiful 23-win campaign, PinnacleSports.com lists New York as huge 300/1 long shots to win the championship this year. The hopes appear even dimmer for the Portland Trailblazers and Charlotte Bobcats, who are both listed at 500/1 to win the NBA title at PinnacleSports.com.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win 2007 NBA Championship
Dallas Mavericks 4/1
Phoenix Suns 11/2
San Antonio Spurs 11/2
Miami Heat 6/1
New Jersey Nets 9/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 10/1
Detroit Pistons 11/1
Chicago Bulls 19/1
Los Angeles Clippers 22/1
Houston Rockets 24/1
Washington Wizards 43/1
Sacramento Kings 49/1
Denver Nuggets 51/1
Indiana Pacers 64/1
Los Angeles Lakers 67/1
Memphis Grizzlies 75/1
Seattle Supersonics 75/1
Golden State Warriors 75/1
Boston Celtics 75/1
Utah Jazz 75/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 87/1
Atlanta Hawks 87/1
Milwaukee Bucks 90/1
N.O/Oklahoma City Hornets 90/1
Toronto Raptors 109/1
Philadelphia 76ers 130/1
Orlando Magic 150/1
New York Knicks 300/1
Portland Trailblazers 500/1
Charlotte Bobcats 500/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
dallas Mavericks favored to win 2007 nba championship
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds To Win NBA Title
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 24, 2006)—With tip-off of the 2006-07 basketball season taking place next week, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on all 30 NBA teams winning the league championship. The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com currently lists Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks as a 4/1 favorite to avenge last year’s loss in the NBA Finals and capture the franchise’s first ever championship.
With Amare Stoudemire returning to the lineup along side reigning two-time league MVP Steve Nash, the Phoenix Suns should be even more explosive this year and are currently listed at 11/2 to win the NBA title. Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs begin the season attempting to become the next NBA dynasty and are also listed at 11/2 to win their third championship in five years. Although they return nearly every key player from last year’s team, Dwayne Wade, Shaquille O’Neal and the rest of the reigning NBA champion Miami Heat are listed at just 6/1 to repeat this season. PinnacleSports.com believes that the New Jersey Nets (9/1), led by the trio of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, will emerge as solid title contenders from the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the sportsbook lists LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers at 10/1 to ascend to the NBA throne, while the Detroit Pistons are 11/1 to bring a title back to Motown.
After landing four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace in the offseason, the Chicago Bulls (19/1) mix of young talent and veteran leadership should help make them a contender in ’07. While not in the limelight like the Lakers, the LA Clippers (22/1) were Hollywood’s best team last year and are poised to make another playoff run. The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming will help return the Houston Rockets (24/1) to the playoff caliber team they were in 2004-05. Playoff teams a year ago, Washington Wizards (43/1), Sacremento Kings (49/1), Denver Nuggets (51/1), Indiana Pacers (64/1), Los Angeles Lakers (67/1) and Memphis Grizzlies (75/1) are on the outside looking in at the top title contenders according to the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com.
Although there are hopes in the Big Apple that the Knicks will improve on last season’s pitiful 23-win campaign, PinnacleSports.com lists New York as huge 300/1 long shots to win the championship this year. The hopes appear even dimmer for the Portland Trailblazers and Charlotte Bobcats, who are both listed at 500/1 to win the NBA title at PinnacleSports.com.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win 2007 NBA Championship
Dallas Mavericks 4/1
Phoenix Suns 11/2
San Antonio Spurs 11/2
Miami Heat 6/1
New Jersey Nets 9/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 10/1
Detroit Pistons 11/1
Chicago Bulls 19/1
Los Angeles Clippers 22/1
Houston Rockets 24/1
Washington Wizards 43/1
Sacramento Kings 49/1
Denver Nuggets 51/1
Indiana Pacers 64/1
Los Angeles Lakers 67/1
Memphis Grizzlies 75/1
Seattle Supersonics 75/1
Golden State Warriors 75/1
Boston Celtics 75/1
Utah Jazz 75/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 87/1
Atlanta Hawks 87/1
Milwaukee Bucks 90/1
N.O/Oklahoma City Hornets 90/1
Toronto Raptors 109/1
Philadelphia 76ers 130/1
Orlando Magic 150/1
New York Knicks 300/1
Portland Trailblazers 500/1
Charlotte Bobcats 500/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 55
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 55
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Identifying Recurring ‘Steam Plays’ & Turning Them to Your Advantage
An alarming pattern has started this year in college football. Every Thursday afternoon (around 1 p.m. EST), there’s been a flurry of action on a limited number of games. The enormous amounts of money pouring in during this "witching hour" are causing massive line movements – in some cases, we’re seeing a 4-point move in less than 10 minutes. Some say this is the handiwork of handicapper Dr. Bob. Others blame it on syndicate action from Taiwan, China or Israel. Regardless of the source, these line movements are bad news for sportsbooks.
When we take one-sided bets on a football game at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, we adjust the moneyline price to encourage or discourage action. The price is like a control-valve on a dam, controlling how fast the money flows on a given game. If the market price on a game is "Ohio State -14 (-110)", we have two ways to slow down bets on the Buckeyes. We can offer Ohio State at -14 (-111), which is what we call a "stopper" – no one wants to pay this price if a better one is easy to find. We can also adjust the spread off the market price to -14.5 (-105), but the danger whenever you adjust a spread though is that you risk getting sided or middled. Under normal situations, either of these techniques will help control our position.
The problem with these Thursday morning steam-plays arises from how fast a book can get slammed with bets. Price adjustments and even minor spread adjustments do not slow these bettors. If a sportsbook takes many limit bets in a 20-second window, it’s stuck with a very bad position after a 4-point line movement. Each time this happens, an oddsmaker might expect to lose $0.15 for every dollar bet in that time frame (from middles and the cost of offering a good price on the other side). A high-volume shop like Pinnacle Sportsbook can trade its way out of a bad position, but lower volume books can be decimated by this.
Most steam plays tend to be long-term winning plays (as long as you get the pre-move price), and these Thursday plays are no exception. Many players are starting to watch for steam plays Thursday morning, and blindly bet them at slower-moving sportsbooks. This "echo" makes the initial surge even more terrifying for some line managers.
Regular players can make money off these line moves by simply watching the odds screen Thursday mornings. When you see the lines begin to move, bet at smaller books – especially those that offer first-half lines. These types of derivative lines often move slower than game lines. This gives patient players the option to middle the first half once the lines stabilize. If you manage to play a side before a steam-move of at least two points, you can usually scalp the new number at Pinnacle Sports Betting using point-selling and our 10-cent line on college football which offers up to 50% better value than other sports books.
What are the players betting at PinnacleSports.com this week?
Notre Dame -14 +103 at Navy
This game opened with the Irish listed at -14 (-105). While the game has been heavily-traded with fairly balanced action, market drift has made Navy more expensive – they are now trading at +14 (-113). The wise guys have been reluctant to pick one side, possibly uncertain how Navy will perform with the loss of starting quarterback Brian Hampton, due to a knee injury sustained in Navy’s 34-0 loss to Rutgers.
Northern Illinois at Iowa Over 49 -101
There are fewer sharp players specializing in totals compared to sides. Consequently, we see fewer sharp positions on totals this early in the week, but this game is an exception. This total has been heavily traded, and our sharper players are on the over, while the public is backing the under at a ratio of 2-to-1. The high public volume drove down the opener of 52 (-105). When public money greatly outweighs sharp action, it suggests that more sharps could feed on the total than they are currently doing.
Arizona +3.5 -109 at Green Bay
The opener of Green Bay -3 (-112) drew heavy action on both sides, but the public favored the Packers by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. As is often the case, the sharps lined up against the public, backing the Cardinals this time. A few wise guys played the Cardinals earlier, buying a full point up to +4.5. Some of our readers have asked us whether these players are truly sharp if they frequently buy through the "4". Our definition of a sharp player has two requirements: he/she tends to beat the closing line and tends to win long-term. We mention unusual sharp activity (such as buying through the "4") not to encourage our readers to do this blindly, but to offer an insight and angle to explore.
St. Louis +9 -111 at San Diego
Our opener of Rams +10 -110 drew heavy volume, with the public favoring St. Louis. The sharps were on both sides of the game, suggesting it might be a good game to avoid. The reason being that if two 54% handicappers are on opposite sides of the same game, they can only hope to hit 50% on that match-up, which is a losing proposition.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Identifying Recurring ‘Steam Plays’ & Turning Them to Your Advantage
An alarming pattern has started this year in college football. Every Thursday afternoon (around 1 p.m. EST), there’s been a flurry of action on a limited number of games. The enormous amounts of money pouring in during this "witching hour" are causing massive line movements – in some cases, we’re seeing a 4-point move in less than 10 minutes. Some say this is the handiwork of handicapper Dr. Bob. Others blame it on syndicate action from Taiwan, China or Israel. Regardless of the source, these line movements are bad news for sportsbooks.
When we take one-sided bets on a football game at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, we adjust the moneyline price to encourage or discourage action. The price is like a control-valve on a dam, controlling how fast the money flows on a given game. If the market price on a game is "Ohio State -14 (-110)", we have two ways to slow down bets on the Buckeyes. We can offer Ohio State at -14 (-111), which is what we call a "stopper" – no one wants to pay this price if a better one is easy to find. We can also adjust the spread off the market price to -14.5 (-105), but the danger whenever you adjust a spread though is that you risk getting sided or middled. Under normal situations, either of these techniques will help control our position.
The problem with these Thursday morning steam-plays arises from how fast a book can get slammed with bets. Price adjustments and even minor spread adjustments do not slow these bettors. If a sportsbook takes many limit bets in a 20-second window, it’s stuck with a very bad position after a 4-point line movement. Each time this happens, an oddsmaker might expect to lose $0.15 for every dollar bet in that time frame (from middles and the cost of offering a good price on the other side). A high-volume shop like Pinnacle Sportsbook can trade its way out of a bad position, but lower volume books can be decimated by this.
Most steam plays tend to be long-term winning plays (as long as you get the pre-move price), and these Thursday plays are no exception. Many players are starting to watch for steam plays Thursday morning, and blindly bet them at slower-moving sportsbooks. This "echo" makes the initial surge even more terrifying for some line managers.
Regular players can make money off these line moves by simply watching the odds screen Thursday mornings. When you see the lines begin to move, bet at smaller books – especially those that offer first-half lines. These types of derivative lines often move slower than game lines. This gives patient players the option to middle the first half once the lines stabilize. If you manage to play a side before a steam-move of at least two points, you can usually scalp the new number at Pinnacle Sports Betting using point-selling and our 10-cent line on college football which offers up to 50% better value than other sports books.
What are the players betting at PinnacleSports.com this week?
Notre Dame -14 +103 at Navy
This game opened with the Irish listed at -14 (-105). While the game has been heavily-traded with fairly balanced action, market drift has made Navy more expensive – they are now trading at +14 (-113). The wise guys have been reluctant to pick one side, possibly uncertain how Navy will perform with the loss of starting quarterback Brian Hampton, due to a knee injury sustained in Navy’s 34-0 loss to Rutgers.
Northern Illinois at Iowa Over 49 -101
There are fewer sharp players specializing in totals compared to sides. Consequently, we see fewer sharp positions on totals this early in the week, but this game is an exception. This total has been heavily traded, and our sharper players are on the over, while the public is backing the under at a ratio of 2-to-1. The high public volume drove down the opener of 52 (-105). When public money greatly outweighs sharp action, it suggests that more sharps could feed on the total than they are currently doing.
Arizona +3.5 -109 at Green Bay
The opener of Green Bay -3 (-112) drew heavy action on both sides, but the public favored the Packers by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. As is often the case, the sharps lined up against the public, backing the Cardinals this time. A few wise guys played the Cardinals earlier, buying a full point up to +4.5. Some of our readers have asked us whether these players are truly sharp if they frequently buy through the "4". Our definition of a sharp player has two requirements: he/she tends to beat the closing line and tends to win long-term. We mention unusual sharp activity (such as buying through the "4") not to encourage our readers to do this blindly, but to offer an insight and angle to explore.
St. Louis +9 -111 at San Diego
Our opener of Rams +10 -110 drew heavy volume, with the public favoring St. Louis. The sharps were on both sides of the game, suggesting it might be a good game to avoid. The reason being that if two 54% handicappers are on opposite sides of the same game, they can only hope to hit 50% on that match-up, which is a losing proposition.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
Immediate Release from Pinnacle
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Odds Are dennis Green Will Be First NFL Coaching Casualty
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds On First NFL Head Coach To Lose His Job
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 25, 2006)—We’re only seven weeks into the NFL season and already the contenders have begun to separate themselves from the pretenders. Several head coaches are already starting to feel the heat as their teams are failing to meet pre-season expectations. With a number of teams off to a slow start, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds on which current NFL coach will be the first to lose his job.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has created individual odds on 12 NFL head coaches becoming the first coaching casualty this season. After following up a choke job of historic proportions on Monday Night versus Chicago, with a loss last Sunday to the lowly Raiders, it’s no surprise that Arizona’s Dennis Green is the odds-on favorite to become the first coach to get his walking papers at 1/1 odds (i.e., win $1 for every $1 bet). While only in his second year at the helm, Romeo Crennel (7/1) might be on the verge of losing his job in Cleveland as the team continues to falter and just this week, offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon resigned. Although widely considered the worst team in the NFL, Art Shell (8/1) may get some leeway from Al Davis in Oakland knowing that the team is in full rebuilding mode. With a shocking 1-6 start to the season, the playoff aspirations in Miami are all but gone and PinnacleSports.com now lists the chances of the previously unthinkable firing of Nick Saban at 9/1.
"Several media reports already indicate that unless Arizona wins at Green Bay this weekend, Dennis Green might not make it through the team’s Week 9 bye as head coach of the Cardinals," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "If blowing a 20-point halftime lead on Monday Night Football and exploding at the post-game press conference weren’t enough, Arizona were then dominated by the previously winless Raiders – a sure sign that Green’s days are numbered. The race to become the first NFL coaching casualty would even be hotly contested without Green in the equation as Crennel, Shell and Saban all appear to be firmly headed for the chopping block."
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com list Buffalo’s Dick Jauron at 11/1 odds to get his walking papers first, even though he’s only in his first season leading the Bills. Veteran coaches Jeff Fisher (13/1) and Joe Gibbs (13/1) are also solid candidates to become the first coaching casualty this season as their teams have combined for a total of just three wins. San Francisco’s Mike Nolan and Detroit’s Rod Marinelli, who are in the midst of rebuilding projects with their teams, have both been listed at 15/1. Although Tampa Bay has rallied for back-to-back wins after starting 0-5 this year, PinnacleSports.com still lists head coach Jon Gruden at 24/1 to become the first coach to get his pink slip this year. Meanwhile, head coach of the reigning Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, Bill Cowher and first year coach Mike McCarthy of Green Bay, are both listed as long shots to be the first coaching casualty at 31/1.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Which Of These NFL Coaches Will Lose His Job First?
Dennis Green 1/1
Romeo Crennel 7/1
Art Shell 8/1
Nick Saban 9/1
Dick Jauron 11/1
Jeff Fisher 13/1
Joe Gibbs 13/1
Mike Nolan 15/1
Rod Marinelli 15/1
Jon Gruden 24/1
Bill Cowher 31/1
Mike McCarthy 31/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Odds Are dennis Green Will Be First NFL Coaching Casualty
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds On First NFL Head Coach To Lose His Job
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 25, 2006)—We’re only seven weeks into the NFL season and already the contenders have begun to separate themselves from the pretenders. Several head coaches are already starting to feel the heat as their teams are failing to meet pre-season expectations. With a number of teams off to a slow start, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds on which current NFL coach will be the first to lose his job.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has created individual odds on 12 NFL head coaches becoming the first coaching casualty this season. After following up a choke job of historic proportions on Monday Night versus Chicago, with a loss last Sunday to the lowly Raiders, it’s no surprise that Arizona’s Dennis Green is the odds-on favorite to become the first coach to get his walking papers at 1/1 odds (i.e., win $1 for every $1 bet). While only in his second year at the helm, Romeo Crennel (7/1) might be on the verge of losing his job in Cleveland as the team continues to falter and just this week, offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon resigned. Although widely considered the worst team in the NFL, Art Shell (8/1) may get some leeway from Al Davis in Oakland knowing that the team is in full rebuilding mode. With a shocking 1-6 start to the season, the playoff aspirations in Miami are all but gone and PinnacleSports.com now lists the chances of the previously unthinkable firing of Nick Saban at 9/1.
"Several media reports already indicate that unless Arizona wins at Green Bay this weekend, Dennis Green might not make it through the team’s Week 9 bye as head coach of the Cardinals," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "If blowing a 20-point halftime lead on Monday Night Football and exploding at the post-game press conference weren’t enough, Arizona were then dominated by the previously winless Raiders – a sure sign that Green’s days are numbered. The race to become the first NFL coaching casualty would even be hotly contested without Green in the equation as Crennel, Shell and Saban all appear to be firmly headed for the chopping block."
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com list Buffalo’s Dick Jauron at 11/1 odds to get his walking papers first, even though he’s only in his first season leading the Bills. Veteran coaches Jeff Fisher (13/1) and Joe Gibbs (13/1) are also solid candidates to become the first coaching casualty this season as their teams have combined for a total of just three wins. San Francisco’s Mike Nolan and Detroit’s Rod Marinelli, who are in the midst of rebuilding projects with their teams, have both been listed at 15/1. Although Tampa Bay has rallied for back-to-back wins after starting 0-5 this year, PinnacleSports.com still lists head coach Jon Gruden at 24/1 to become the first coach to get his pink slip this year. Meanwhile, head coach of the reigning Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, Bill Cowher and first year coach Mike McCarthy of Green Bay, are both listed as long shots to be the first coaching casualty at 31/1.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Which Of These NFL Coaches Will Lose His Job First?
Dennis Green 1/1
Romeo Crennel 7/1
Art Shell 8/1
Nick Saban 9/1
Dick Jauron 11/1
Jeff Fisher 13/1
Joe Gibbs 13/1
Mike Nolan 15/1
Rod Marinelli 15/1
Jon Gruden 24/1
Bill Cowher 31/1
Mike McCarthy 31/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 54
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Understanding ‘Luck’ and Making It Work For You
Two Sundays ago, during the end of the Dallas-Philadelphia game, the Cowboys were down 31-24 and driving into Eagle territory with about 30 seconds on the clock. Though Dallas were long shots to score a TD and tie things up, those "wise guys" sitting on the teaser of Dallas +1.5 up to +7.5 were already counting their winnings.
With Dallas out of timeouts, a few more incomplete passes, a touchdown, or even getting tackled in bounds would end the game and give many of these players a chance to cash at the window with a smile on their face… Then the unthinkable happened!!! A Dallas pass in the end zone was intercepted and returned 102 yards for a Philadelphia touchdown. Whether you call this a highly improbable occurrence, or just plain bad luck, either way all those Dallas teasers bit the dust and those wise guys lost out.
While a bad-beat like that may leave a horrible taste in the mouth, it’s surprising how quickly players forget about the impact of luck on a team’s performance. Players might later review Dallas’s schedule and note the Cowboy’s win/loss record, or the points for/against, but miss the subtle nuances of outrageous misfortune – like the 102 yard TD interception.
In a very long season – such as the NBA or MLB - the good and bad breaks tend to balance each other out. After 30-40 games, you get a fair measure of a team’s ability. It’s more dangerous to ignore luck’s affects on an NFL team due to the short season; most successful bettors appreciate how luck adds another dimension to a team’s win/loss record.
There are several occasions each NFL season where the better football team does not win because of a lucky or unlucky play that defies reason. We’ve all seen miracles and disasters cause small fortunes to change hands between bookies and bettors, but still many players ignore this factor when evaluating teams.
In the same way that players perceive a pattern at the roulette table when the ball lands on black for six consecutive spins (there’s actually no pattern, just a sequence of random events), many players try to deduce a "pattern" in lucky or unlucky teams. However, the results are better explained by chance.
How do handicappers decide if a result is due solely to luck or from the quality of a team that finds a way to win? Many professional players do extensive statistical testing of a single factor that might be heavily affected by luck. This approach determines whether a team that has shown a certain tendency in the past (such as throwing many interceptions) is likely to continue in the future.
The "bean counters" do this with correlation tests, trying to validate (or refute) the idea that "bad teams throw more interceptions" by looking at the results of teams in prior seasons. Do bad teams throw more interceptions, or are there simply unlucky events that make a team "look bad"? This question can be answered even if you have no idea what a "correlation test" is.
First off, identify the factor you want to test for luck – in this case, interceptions. Look at league-wide statistics for the first eight weeks of the prior season, to see which teams had the most, and least interceptions. Divide all NFL teams between "good" and "bad" based on interceptions thrown. If they threw more than average, put them in the "bad" group, and otherwise in the "good" stack.
Then utilize the same process while examining the last eight or nine weeks. If the same 16 teams are bad in both halves, it would suggest a very high correlation, meaning that a team that throws picks will probably keep doing so. If exactly half of the "bad teams" from the first half of the season are bad in the second half (regarding interceptions), it would suggest the event is purely random (since a "bad" team in the first half of the season is equally likely to be good or bad in the second).
Practicing this test on NFL teams, will show that interceptions thrown by a team are almost completely random. In fact, you’d also find similar results for all forms of giveaways and takeaways – there’s less than a 20% correlation. So how do bettors turn this knowledge into money? Simply recognize when teams are overrated or underrated because of the impact on perception of good or bad luck.
A team with a high turnover differential looks good in a box-score, but it’s just as likely to be positive as negative on turnovers going forward. Historical scores do not reflect that, and make these teams (like St. Louis) look much stronger than they actually are. Similarly, teams with negative turnover differentials (like Oakland and Cleveland) tend to outperform the public’s expectations (and hence, the spread).
There are other calculations bettors can do that will give a statistical edge in sports betting. Identifying results that are unusual due to luck will put you in position to evaluate teams better than the market as a whole. With any statistic you can isolate and analyze – from the Colts’ 3rd-down conversion rate to anomalies in field goal kicking – if you can recognize luck, you can make money off it.
Real statistics geeks can go further with the luck factors identified. Advanced correlation can tell you how much difference a lucky turnover change makes to an NFL game (it’s actually about 3.5 points). Or, a hit batter in baseball, which accounts for about 0.5 runs. If you can quantify how much these lucky/unlucky instances change the event outcomes, you can "adjust" your statistics accordingly and gain a better measure of what truly happened. If your assessment is more accurate than the market, you will profit.
What are our players betting?
Miami -17.5 -109 at Duke
In Miami’s game against FIU last week, a brawl broke out resulting in the suspension of 13 Miami players. We thought the opener of Miami -20.5 accurately reflected these suspensions, but the sharps disagreed. The wise guys fired away on Duke at +20.5 with some buying it up to +21.5. Despite the sharp action on Duke, we are seeing many more players backing Miami.
Texas -6.5 -105 at Nebraska
The initial opener of Texas -8 drew a flurry of sharp activity, all of which was on Nebraska. Most of the public is on Texas and there are three times as many wagers on the Longhorns, including most of our larger Asian players. This game has been heavily traded, with the sharps refusing to allow the line to drift to Texas -7.
San Diego Chargers -5 -103 at Kansas City Chiefs
The sharps were split evenly on the opener of Chargers -4.5 with some sharps buying the Chargers down to -3.5. When we see this type of activity, one of two things must be true – our push percentages are wrong or their numbers are wrong. Although there’s fairly balanced action in terms of volume, the public clearly favors the Chargers as we’ve taken nearly 20 times as many bets on San Diego as Kansas City.
Carolina Panthers +3 +105 at Cincinnati Bengals
We opened the Panthers at +3.5 (-112) and saw a fairly rare event – the sharps AND the public backing the same side. With nearly three times as many bets on Carolina as Cincinnati, this price has drifted down. Similar to the San Diego game, we’re seeing some of our sharper players buy through the "4".
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
Understanding ‘Luck’ and Making It Work For You
Two Sundays ago, during the end of the Dallas-Philadelphia game, the Cowboys were down 31-24 and driving into Eagle territory with about 30 seconds on the clock. Though Dallas were long shots to score a TD and tie things up, those "wise guys" sitting on the teaser of Dallas +1.5 up to +7.5 were already counting their winnings.
With Dallas out of timeouts, a few more incomplete passes, a touchdown, or even getting tackled in bounds would end the game and give many of these players a chance to cash at the window with a smile on their face… Then the unthinkable happened!!! A Dallas pass in the end zone was intercepted and returned 102 yards for a Philadelphia touchdown. Whether you call this a highly improbable occurrence, or just plain bad luck, either way all those Dallas teasers bit the dust and those wise guys lost out.
While a bad-beat like that may leave a horrible taste in the mouth, it’s surprising how quickly players forget about the impact of luck on a team’s performance. Players might later review Dallas’s schedule and note the Cowboy’s win/loss record, or the points for/against, but miss the subtle nuances of outrageous misfortune – like the 102 yard TD interception.
In a very long season – such as the NBA or MLB - the good and bad breaks tend to balance each other out. After 30-40 games, you get a fair measure of a team’s ability. It’s more dangerous to ignore luck’s affects on an NFL team due to the short season; most successful bettors appreciate how luck adds another dimension to a team’s win/loss record.
There are several occasions each NFL season where the better football team does not win because of a lucky or unlucky play that defies reason. We’ve all seen miracles and disasters cause small fortunes to change hands between bookies and bettors, but still many players ignore this factor when evaluating teams.
In the same way that players perceive a pattern at the roulette table when the ball lands on black for six consecutive spins (there’s actually no pattern, just a sequence of random events), many players try to deduce a "pattern" in lucky or unlucky teams. However, the results are better explained by chance.
How do handicappers decide if a result is due solely to luck or from the quality of a team that finds a way to win? Many professional players do extensive statistical testing of a single factor that might be heavily affected by luck. This approach determines whether a team that has shown a certain tendency in the past (such as throwing many interceptions) is likely to continue in the future.
The "bean counters" do this with correlation tests, trying to validate (or refute) the idea that "bad teams throw more interceptions" by looking at the results of teams in prior seasons. Do bad teams throw more interceptions, or are there simply unlucky events that make a team "look bad"? This question can be answered even if you have no idea what a "correlation test" is.
First off, identify the factor you want to test for luck – in this case, interceptions. Look at league-wide statistics for the first eight weeks of the prior season, to see which teams had the most, and least interceptions. Divide all NFL teams between "good" and "bad" based on interceptions thrown. If they threw more than average, put them in the "bad" group, and otherwise in the "good" stack.
Then utilize the same process while examining the last eight or nine weeks. If the same 16 teams are bad in both halves, it would suggest a very high correlation, meaning that a team that throws picks will probably keep doing so. If exactly half of the "bad teams" from the first half of the season are bad in the second half (regarding interceptions), it would suggest the event is purely random (since a "bad" team in the first half of the season is equally likely to be good or bad in the second).
Practicing this test on NFL teams, will show that interceptions thrown by a team are almost completely random. In fact, you’d also find similar results for all forms of giveaways and takeaways – there’s less than a 20% correlation. So how do bettors turn this knowledge into money? Simply recognize when teams are overrated or underrated because of the impact on perception of good or bad luck.
A team with a high turnover differential looks good in a box-score, but it’s just as likely to be positive as negative on turnovers going forward. Historical scores do not reflect that, and make these teams (like St. Louis) look much stronger than they actually are. Similarly, teams with negative turnover differentials (like Oakland and Cleveland) tend to outperform the public’s expectations (and hence, the spread).
There are other calculations bettors can do that will give a statistical edge in sports betting. Identifying results that are unusual due to luck will put you in position to evaluate teams better than the market as a whole. With any statistic you can isolate and analyze – from the Colts’ 3rd-down conversion rate to anomalies in field goal kicking – if you can recognize luck, you can make money off it.
Real statistics geeks can go further with the luck factors identified. Advanced correlation can tell you how much difference a lucky turnover change makes to an NFL game (it’s actually about 3.5 points). Or, a hit batter in baseball, which accounts for about 0.5 runs. If you can quantify how much these lucky/unlucky instances change the event outcomes, you can "adjust" your statistics accordingly and gain a better measure of what truly happened. If your assessment is more accurate than the market, you will profit.
What are our players betting?
Miami -17.5 -109 at Duke
In Miami’s game against FIU last week, a brawl broke out resulting in the suspension of 13 Miami players. We thought the opener of Miami -20.5 accurately reflected these suspensions, but the sharps disagreed. The wise guys fired away on Duke at +20.5 with some buying it up to +21.5. Despite the sharp action on Duke, we are seeing many more players backing Miami.
Texas -6.5 -105 at Nebraska
The initial opener of Texas -8 drew a flurry of sharp activity, all of which was on Nebraska. Most of the public is on Texas and there are three times as many wagers on the Longhorns, including most of our larger Asian players. This game has been heavily traded, with the sharps refusing to allow the line to drift to Texas -7.
San Diego Chargers -5 -103 at Kansas City Chiefs
The sharps were split evenly on the opener of Chargers -4.5 with some sharps buying the Chargers down to -3.5. When we see this type of activity, one of two things must be true – our push percentages are wrong or their numbers are wrong. Although there’s fairly balanced action in terms of volume, the public clearly favors the Chargers as we’ve taken nearly 20 times as many bets on San Diego as Kansas City.
Carolina Panthers +3 +105 at Cincinnati Bengals
We opened the Panthers at +3.5 (-112) and saw a fairly rare event – the sharps AND the public backing the same side. With nearly three times as many bets on Carolina as Cincinnati, this price has drifted down. Similar to the San Diego game, we’re seeing some of our sharper players buy through the "4".
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 53
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Turning Fantasy Football Into Real Cash
Fantasy sports have become an extremely popular pastime with tens of millions of sports fans around the world. During football season, fantasy owners spend hours each week examining player statistics, evaluating their fantasy football teams and contemplating trades. Team owners hold extensive negotiations over even the smallest transactions in hopes that the hard work will payoff come game day. Once Sunday’s NFL games kickoff, fantasy players turn their focus to statistics in the day’s games, hoping to dominate their respective leagues.
What could be better than seeing your Fantasy Team crushing a hapless opponent? Winning your fantasy game AND making money! Pinnacle Sportsbook is now taking bets on YOUR fantasy games, so that it can become a reality! As always, Pinnacle Sportsbetting is even offering reduced juice with -108 pricing on YOUR Fantasy League match-ups.
It only takes about three minutes to set up your league and begin betting on your fantasy team’s match-ups. Simply go to FantasyRivals.com, and create a new account – you only need a username and valid email address. Once logged in, importing your Fantasy League from either Yahoo! or CBS Sportsline happens almost instantaneously. If your league is hosted on another service or you don’t belong to an existing league, you also have the option of entering the league information manually.
Once your league is set up, select the "Line Generator" which allows you to request a point spread between two chosen fantasy teams in your league. This betting line is then available at PinnacleSports.com, where you can bet on it like any other sporting event. The one caveat is that both quarterbacks must play for your bet to have action – any other player missing from the game doesn’t matter (except for your fantasy score!).
Even if you’re not a big bettor, FantasyRivals.com gives you an edge to help win your fantasy league. The Line Generator gives a good indication of how strong your starting lineup is in a professional bookmaker’s eyes relative to that week’s opponent. The ultimate tool helping fantasy owners make difficult lineup decisions, the Line Generator will automatically devise a new betting line as owners activate different players in their starting lineup, which indicates what players are good Starts/Sits for your game.
For example; if the Line Generator makes your team a 7-point favorite with Chester Taylor starting at RB, but only a 4-point favorite with Warrick Dunn starting in his place, this indicates that Taylor is a better start in your match-up. If you’re surprised at the new line, or think a change is not adequately reflected in the line, you can always back your opinion by betting into that line at Pinnacle Sports Book.
In both fantasy games and betting, paying particular attention to match-ups where a player may have a breakout performance can be very beneficial. Since Pinnacle Sports’ Fantasy Team lines are based on expected average performance, you’ll want to find situations where a player’s performance may differ drastically from his average.
Many of your opponents will use similar criteria to select their starting lineup, but occasionally, you can find a break-out player who’ll exceed his past performance. This often happens when there’s a change in that player’s role. For example, a tight end or secondary wide receiver might get more looks and earn more points if a team’s top receiver is injured.
Another opportunity to find breakout players may arise in mismatches. When a game goes into the second half with a dominant favorite up 14 or more points, there are usually significant changes in play selection. The favorite tends to run the ball more often, while the losing team attempts more passes. Using this theory to your advantage, you may want to activate running backs for teams that are favored by 10 points or more.
It’s equally important to avoid quarterbacks playing for large underdogs. Although they typically attempt more passes, they also tend to throw a disproportionate number of interceptions. You’re also likely to see a winning team using more nickel and dime defensive packages (even on first or second down), when its opponent is down a few scores in the second half. While quarterbacks of big underdogs are typically something to be avoided in fantasy, receivers and tight ends of these teams often benefit from the rout by making more pass receptions, without getting penalized for the more frequent interceptions and sacks.
What are our players betting now?
Philadelphia -3.5 -106 v New Orleans
In the highest-traded game of the week, the Eagles opened as 2.5-point road favorites where several early bets from sharps quickly moved the line. The professionals clearly like the Eagles at -2.5 and even -3, but are passing on Philly -3.5. New Orleans has been a fairly public team this year, so we expect Saints backers to take the +3.5, which could force this game to close on the 3.
Chicago/Arizona Over 38 -107
The opening total of 37 was heavily bet by the public forcing the line up to 38. The sharps have not expressed an opinion on this game yet, which may indicate that they’re waiting for Monday night to play the under. While the Bears’ have averaged over 31 points per game this season, it remains to be seen if the Cardinals can score against the dominant Chicago defense.
Florida +1 -105 v Auburn
Auburn was embarrassed last week losing to Arkansas 27-10 at home. Public bettors often back top-ranked teams following this type of loss using a "bounce back" theory. This game is clearly following that trend as a lot of public money has already come in on the Tigers. The sharps clearly favor Florida, and their larger wagers have pushed the opener of Florida +1.5 down.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Turning Fantasy Football Into Real Cash
Fantasy sports have become an extremely popular pastime with tens of millions of sports fans around the world. During football season, fantasy owners spend hours each week examining player statistics, evaluating their fantasy football teams and contemplating trades. Team owners hold extensive negotiations over even the smallest transactions in hopes that the hard work will payoff come game day. Once Sunday’s NFL games kickoff, fantasy players turn their focus to statistics in the day’s games, hoping to dominate their respective leagues.
What could be better than seeing your Fantasy Team crushing a hapless opponent? Winning your fantasy game AND making money! Pinnacle Sportsbook is now taking bets on YOUR fantasy games, so that it can become a reality! As always, Pinnacle Sportsbetting is even offering reduced juice with -108 pricing on YOUR Fantasy League match-ups.
It only takes about three minutes to set up your league and begin betting on your fantasy team’s match-ups. Simply go to FantasyRivals.com, and create a new account – you only need a username and valid email address. Once logged in, importing your Fantasy League from either Yahoo! or CBS Sportsline happens almost instantaneously. If your league is hosted on another service or you don’t belong to an existing league, you also have the option of entering the league information manually.
Once your league is set up, select the "Line Generator" which allows you to request a point spread between two chosen fantasy teams in your league. This betting line is then available at PinnacleSports.com, where you can bet on it like any other sporting event. The one caveat is that both quarterbacks must play for your bet to have action – any other player missing from the game doesn’t matter (except for your fantasy score!).
Even if you’re not a big bettor, FantasyRivals.com gives you an edge to help win your fantasy league. The Line Generator gives a good indication of how strong your starting lineup is in a professional bookmaker’s eyes relative to that week’s opponent. The ultimate tool helping fantasy owners make difficult lineup decisions, the Line Generator will automatically devise a new betting line as owners activate different players in their starting lineup, which indicates what players are good Starts/Sits for your game.
For example; if the Line Generator makes your team a 7-point favorite with Chester Taylor starting at RB, but only a 4-point favorite with Warrick Dunn starting in his place, this indicates that Taylor is a better start in your match-up. If you’re surprised at the new line, or think a change is not adequately reflected in the line, you can always back your opinion by betting into that line at Pinnacle Sports Book.
In both fantasy games and betting, paying particular attention to match-ups where a player may have a breakout performance can be very beneficial. Since Pinnacle Sports’ Fantasy Team lines are based on expected average performance, you’ll want to find situations where a player’s performance may differ drastically from his average.
Many of your opponents will use similar criteria to select their starting lineup, but occasionally, you can find a break-out player who’ll exceed his past performance. This often happens when there’s a change in that player’s role. For example, a tight end or secondary wide receiver might get more looks and earn more points if a team’s top receiver is injured.
Another opportunity to find breakout players may arise in mismatches. When a game goes into the second half with a dominant favorite up 14 or more points, there are usually significant changes in play selection. The favorite tends to run the ball more often, while the losing team attempts more passes. Using this theory to your advantage, you may want to activate running backs for teams that are favored by 10 points or more.
It’s equally important to avoid quarterbacks playing for large underdogs. Although they typically attempt more passes, they also tend to throw a disproportionate number of interceptions. You’re also likely to see a winning team using more nickel and dime defensive packages (even on first or second down), when its opponent is down a few scores in the second half. While quarterbacks of big underdogs are typically something to be avoided in fantasy, receivers and tight ends of these teams often benefit from the rout by making more pass receptions, without getting penalized for the more frequent interceptions and sacks.
What are our players betting now?
Philadelphia -3.5 -106 v New Orleans
In the highest-traded game of the week, the Eagles opened as 2.5-point road favorites where several early bets from sharps quickly moved the line. The professionals clearly like the Eagles at -2.5 and even -3, but are passing on Philly -3.5. New Orleans has been a fairly public team this year, so we expect Saints backers to take the +3.5, which could force this game to close on the 3.
Chicago/Arizona Over 38 -107
The opening total of 37 was heavily bet by the public forcing the line up to 38. The sharps have not expressed an opinion on this game yet, which may indicate that they’re waiting for Monday night to play the under. While the Bears’ have averaged over 31 points per game this season, it remains to be seen if the Cardinals can score against the dominant Chicago defense.
Florida +1 -105 v Auburn
Auburn was embarrassed last week losing to Arkansas 27-10 at home. Public bettors often back top-ranked teams following this type of loss using a "bounce back" theory. This game is clearly following that trend as a lot of public money has already come in on the Tigers. The sharps clearly favor Florida, and their larger wagers have pushed the opener of Florida +1.5 down.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 52
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 52
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion
All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.
One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?
Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.
When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?
If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.
The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?
Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.
So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?
LSU -1 -101 v Florida
Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.
Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.
Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona
The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego
This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion
All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.
One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?
Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.
When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?
If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.
The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?
Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.
So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?
LSU -1 -101 v Florida
Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.
Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.
Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona
The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego
This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.
Pinnacle Pulse
Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 52
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion
All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.
One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?
Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.
When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?
If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.
The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?
Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.
So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?
LSU -1 -101 v Florida
Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.
Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.
Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona
The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego
This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion
All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.
One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?
Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.
When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.
If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.
Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?
If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.
The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?
Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.
So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?
LSU -1 -101 v Florida
Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.
Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.
Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona
The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego
This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Pinnacle Pulse
Bills face stiff test from Bears
The Buffalo Bills climbed back up to the .500 mark with a 17-12 home win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. In order to get over that mark this weekend they’ll have to do what no other team has been able to this season – beat the Chicago Bears.
The Bears ran roughshod over the Seattle Seahawks in the Sunday Night game last week, getting two touchdown passes from Rex Grossman and two touchdown runs from Thomas Jones in the 37-6 victory. Chicago easily covered the spread at home versus Seattle, and now sit at 3-1 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
Buffalo is also 3-1 ATS in 2006, thanks to their win over Minnesota last week. Bills quarterback J.P. Losman went 23-of-32 for 222 yards passing versus the Vikings, with one touchdown and no interceptions. Willis McGahee ran for a score for Buffalo, and Peerless Price had the team’s TD catch.
To improve that ATS mark today, the Bills need to keep the score close. Oddsmakers at http://pinnaclesports.com/ have the unbeaten Bears pegged as large 11.5 point +106 (bet $100 to win $106) home favorites for the 1:00pm ET contest versus Buffalo. The Bears are 2-0 ATS at home this season, and 3-1 ATS as favorites. The Bills are 2-0 ATS on the road in 2006, and 2-0 ATS as the underdog.
The total for Sunday’s game is currently sitting at 34 points. The combined score of last week’s Bills/Vikings game fell UNDER the posted total, and Buffalo is 1-3 OVER/UNDER on the season. Chicago has a 2-1-1 OU mark in 2006 and the Bears almost single-handedly cashed the OVER against the Seahawks.
The last time Buffalo and Chicago met in September 2002, the Bills came away with a 33-27 home victory as 3-point favorites. The combined score of that contest went OVER the day’s posted total. The Bears haven’t beaten the Bills since December 1997, when they came up with a 20-3 home victory as 1-point underdogs.
And then there were three
You expect this perfect-record stuff from Indianapolis. It seems Peyton Manning and his Colts gallop out to a 5-0 or 10-0 start every season, making headlines each time.
But the Bears? Or the Ravens?
Only three teams that charged unbeaten into Week 4 survived the weekend. Two Super Bowl contenders were humbled last week as the defending NFC champion Seahawks were mauled 37-6 in Chicago, while the 3-0 Bengals were pummeled at home by the Patriots.
If you listen closely, you can hear early whispers of a Chicago-Indy Super Bowl. And of the three surviving unbeaten teams, they look like the best bets to stay that way through Week 5, while the surprising Ravens, who finished off the 2-0 Chargers at home, have a tough task in Denver.
Widely recognized as the largest online sports book in the world, www.PinnacleSports.com is known for taking action from all players big or small. Whether it’s $1 or $50,000, www.PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for being the destination of choice for seasoned professionals and sports betting novices alike.
Offering up to 60% better odds on NFL sides than other bookmakers, the oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com list Indianapolis as a whopping 18.5 point (+102) favorite at home to winless Tennessee, while the Bears moved quickly from -8 to -11.5 (+106) favorites at www.PinnacleSports.com to handle the Bills.
The Ravens, meanwhile, opened as 3.5-point -101 (bet $101 to win $100) underdogs to the 2-1 Broncos, who are coming off a bye week. Denver is 5-1 ATS in their past six at home with the extra week of rest.
While teams at the top of NFL food chain are changing, it’s the same old teams providing the steady diet of wins at the bottom.
Tennessee, Oakland and Detroit are joined by Tampa Bay as the only winless teams, while the 49ers and Cardinals (both 1-3) have done little to shed their reputations as perennial losers.
The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS, punishing fans and bettors who bought the early hype that this year would be different in the desert. It’s looking exactly the same in Arizona, except for one significant change: The Matt Leinart Era begins much earlier than most anticipated.
A 1-3 start and abysmal play by starter Kurt Warner has forced a change under center. The Cardinals host Kansas City, who clobbered San Francisco 41-0 last week and look to make it two straight. Oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites in the desert, but it moved to -3 -123 after plenty of early money poured in on KC.
In the Meadowlands, a fierce division rivalry between the suddenly explosive Redskins and the rested Giants is renewed, with New York coming off a bye week (where they are 14-5 ATS the last 19 games after a bye). Washington looks to the rejuvenated Mark Brunell to Santana Moss tandem to do more damage, after hooking up for three scores in last Sunday’s win over the Jags.
The Giants are 1-2, but deserve to be 0-3. In fairness, they’ve played three top teams in Philadelphia, Seattle and Indy, but they can’t afford to lose division games. Realizing this, bettors jumped all over the line at -3, pushing it quickly to Giants -4 -109.
In Miami, the alleged Super Bowl contending Dolphins join Carolina as the only other teams with 0-4 ATS marks. The Dolphins could be headed for a 1-4 start, but they get ten points from www.PinnacleSports.com oddsmakers who figure, if they can’t beat Houston, they can’t beat New England. The Patriots are listed as -10 +103 favorites to cover.
If you subscribe to the Letdown Theory, the Patriots may be primed for one after a thorough road win at Cincinnati. You could advance the theory further, believing that the Dolphins hit bottom in Houston and will rebound against a division foe.
However, Miami’s offense has been dreadful with Daunte Culpepper proving to be the next Jay Fielder instead of the second coming of Dan Marino, and Ronnie Brown struggling on the ground.
In Jacksonville, the Jaguars have covered four straight meetings with the Jets. But are these two teams headed in opposite directions?
New York has won twice outright as a road underdog this season, while losing tough games at home to New England and Indy. Can they de-claw the Jaguars and send them to a third consecutive defeat? The Jets opened as touchdown dogs and will have to make the most of their time on offense if Jacksonville’s ball-hogging ways continue. Jag’s QB Byron Leftwich and the offense have averaged 36 minutes in time-of-possession in two home games, an edge the Jets will need to counteract. www.PinnacleSports.com list the Jaguars as -7 -104 favorites for the tie in Jacksonville.
The contenders are distancing themselves from the pretenders early in 2006.
The Buffalo Bills climbed back up to the .500 mark with a 17-12 home win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. In order to get over that mark this weekend they’ll have to do what no other team has been able to this season – beat the Chicago Bears.
The Bears ran roughshod over the Seattle Seahawks in the Sunday Night game last week, getting two touchdown passes from Rex Grossman and two touchdown runs from Thomas Jones in the 37-6 victory. Chicago easily covered the spread at home versus Seattle, and now sit at 3-1 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
Buffalo is also 3-1 ATS in 2006, thanks to their win over Minnesota last week. Bills quarterback J.P. Losman went 23-of-32 for 222 yards passing versus the Vikings, with one touchdown and no interceptions. Willis McGahee ran for a score for Buffalo, and Peerless Price had the team’s TD catch.
To improve that ATS mark today, the Bills need to keep the score close. Oddsmakers at http://pinnaclesports.com/ have the unbeaten Bears pegged as large 11.5 point +106 (bet $100 to win $106) home favorites for the 1:00pm ET contest versus Buffalo. The Bears are 2-0 ATS at home this season, and 3-1 ATS as favorites. The Bills are 2-0 ATS on the road in 2006, and 2-0 ATS as the underdog.
The total for Sunday’s game is currently sitting at 34 points. The combined score of last week’s Bills/Vikings game fell UNDER the posted total, and Buffalo is 1-3 OVER/UNDER on the season. Chicago has a 2-1-1 OU mark in 2006 and the Bears almost single-handedly cashed the OVER against the Seahawks.
The last time Buffalo and Chicago met in September 2002, the Bills came away with a 33-27 home victory as 3-point favorites. The combined score of that contest went OVER the day’s posted total. The Bears haven’t beaten the Bills since December 1997, when they came up with a 20-3 home victory as 1-point underdogs.
And then there were three
You expect this perfect-record stuff from Indianapolis. It seems Peyton Manning and his Colts gallop out to a 5-0 or 10-0 start every season, making headlines each time.
But the Bears? Or the Ravens?
Only three teams that charged unbeaten into Week 4 survived the weekend. Two Super Bowl contenders were humbled last week as the defending NFC champion Seahawks were mauled 37-6 in Chicago, while the 3-0 Bengals were pummeled at home by the Patriots.
If you listen closely, you can hear early whispers of a Chicago-Indy Super Bowl. And of the three surviving unbeaten teams, they look like the best bets to stay that way through Week 5, while the surprising Ravens, who finished off the 2-0 Chargers at home, have a tough task in Denver.
Widely recognized as the largest online sports book in the world, www.PinnacleSports.com is known for taking action from all players big or small. Whether it’s $1 or $50,000, www.PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for being the destination of choice for seasoned professionals and sports betting novices alike.
Offering up to 60% better odds on NFL sides than other bookmakers, the oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com list Indianapolis as a whopping 18.5 point (+102) favorite at home to winless Tennessee, while the Bears moved quickly from -8 to -11.5 (+106) favorites at www.PinnacleSports.com to handle the Bills.
The Ravens, meanwhile, opened as 3.5-point -101 (bet $101 to win $100) underdogs to the 2-1 Broncos, who are coming off a bye week. Denver is 5-1 ATS in their past six at home with the extra week of rest.
While teams at the top of NFL food chain are changing, it’s the same old teams providing the steady diet of wins at the bottom.
Tennessee, Oakland and Detroit are joined by Tampa Bay as the only winless teams, while the 49ers and Cardinals (both 1-3) have done little to shed their reputations as perennial losers.
The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS, punishing fans and bettors who bought the early hype that this year would be different in the desert. It’s looking exactly the same in Arizona, except for one significant change: The Matt Leinart Era begins much earlier than most anticipated.
A 1-3 start and abysmal play by starter Kurt Warner has forced a change under center. The Cardinals host Kansas City, who clobbered San Francisco 41-0 last week and look to make it two straight. Oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites in the desert, but it moved to -3 -123 after plenty of early money poured in on KC.
In the Meadowlands, a fierce division rivalry between the suddenly explosive Redskins and the rested Giants is renewed, with New York coming off a bye week (where they are 14-5 ATS the last 19 games after a bye). Washington looks to the rejuvenated Mark Brunell to Santana Moss tandem to do more damage, after hooking up for three scores in last Sunday’s win over the Jags.
The Giants are 1-2, but deserve to be 0-3. In fairness, they’ve played three top teams in Philadelphia, Seattle and Indy, but they can’t afford to lose division games. Realizing this, bettors jumped all over the line at -3, pushing it quickly to Giants -4 -109.
In Miami, the alleged Super Bowl contending Dolphins join Carolina as the only other teams with 0-4 ATS marks. The Dolphins could be headed for a 1-4 start, but they get ten points from www.PinnacleSports.com oddsmakers who figure, if they can’t beat Houston, they can’t beat New England. The Patriots are listed as -10 +103 favorites to cover.
If you subscribe to the Letdown Theory, the Patriots may be primed for one after a thorough road win at Cincinnati. You could advance the theory further, believing that the Dolphins hit bottom in Houston and will rebound against a division foe.
However, Miami’s offense has been dreadful with Daunte Culpepper proving to be the next Jay Fielder instead of the second coming of Dan Marino, and Ronnie Brown struggling on the ground.
In Jacksonville, the Jaguars have covered four straight meetings with the Jets. But are these two teams headed in opposite directions?
New York has won twice outright as a road underdog this season, while losing tough games at home to New England and Indy. Can they de-claw the Jaguars and send them to a third consecutive defeat? The Jets opened as touchdown dogs and will have to make the most of their time on offense if Jacksonville’s ball-hogging ways continue. Jag’s QB Byron Leftwich and the offense have averaged 36 minutes in time-of-possession in two home games, an edge the Jets will need to counteract. www.PinnacleSports.com list the Jaguars as -7 -104 favorites for the tie in Jacksonville.
The contenders are distancing themselves from the pretenders early in 2006.
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