Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleOfficiating can be a factor that makes handicapping games that much moredifficult and last weekend witnessed some of the most questionable NFLofficiating ever seen. No matter how much time you spend analyzing amatch-up, a judgment call can be the ultimate decider of who wins and wholoses. Losing bettors and fans remember these calls for a very long time…The officiating last weekend was so bad that the NFL admitted making amistake when Troy Polamalu’s diving interception in the fourth quarter wasoverturned. Fortunately, that mistake had no effect on the overall outcomeof the game. However, for those players that bet on the second half, itwas a different story.Pittsburgh backers took the Steelers +7.5 for the second half. After theinterception reversal, the Colts scored a TD followed by a 2-pointconversion on the drive. Without that score, Indianapolis -7.5 would nothave covered and Steelers bettors would have won the money.Earlier in the same game, the Steelers were facing fourth and inches whentwo Colts charged across the line of scrimmage and pointed at a Steelerlineman. Play was halted and no penalty called although there should havebeen a call for either a false-start or off-sides.The New England-Denver game also had a number of questionable callsappearing to favor the home team. In the first quarter, Patriotscornerback Asante Samuel was called for pass interference, advancing theBroncos 39 yards to the 1-yard line for an eventual score. Replay showedthat Samuel had position and made very little contact with Denver receiverAshley Lelie on the play.Later in the game, Denver’s Champ Bailey intercepted a pass in theend-zone and nearly returned it for a touchdown before he was hit andfumbled out of bounds. The officials ruled it remained Denver’s ballalthough it appeared that the ball went out of bounds in the end-zone, andNew England should have regained possession at their own 20 yard-line viaa touchback.Let’s hope things are better this weekend as there are now just three morecompetitive games before the curtain comes down on the NFL this season.Although these are clearly the biggest games of the year, it’s wise tostay focused on your money management. There’s always a temptation to betmore, but these games should be treated no differently than any other froma handicapper’s perspective.Resist the temptation to bet more on a side or total simply because theseason is coming to an end. It’s all about winning and you couldpotentially find more value to justify a stronger play on Sunday’sNiagara-St. Peter’s NCAA match-up for instance, than betting the house onthe AFC Championship game.If you find props or other bets you like, spread your money out as younormally would, but don’t throw it all on one side bet. Too many factors(or even referee calls) can go wrong in one game to justify overextendingyourself.Before making your plays this weekend, remember that there’s a limitedtime between the AFC and NFC Championship games to get your bets in -typically, just 15 minutes or less. With all the viewers of the AFC titlegame running to their computers to get action on the Panthers-Seahawksgame, there is an annual 15-minute period that’s traditionally the mostintense time of the year for online sports books.From past experience, many sports books will unfortunately not be able tohandle the stress this puts on their Web servers and database. Websitesmay be slow or worse still, they might be down altogether as their serversbuckle under the load. If you want to get action on the NFC title game ata sports book other than Pinnacle Sports, consider making your plays wellbefore the Pittsburgh-Denver game ends.If you fail to get your bets in before the game kicks off in Seattle, youstill have another option - live betting at Pinnacle Sports. The PinnacleSports book is known for outstanding value on sides and totals, and ourlive lines are no different. For in-running betting throughout the game,we use a -108 style pricing model, which still offers better value thanthe normal price offered by other sportsbooks before the game kicks off.If you like to get your plays in early, you can benefit even more fromPinnacle Sportsbook’s reduced margin wagering, which uses a -104 pricingmodel that gives bettors up to 60% better value on NFL sides than otherbookmakers. If you haven’t placed your wagers yet, you might want toconsider who the sharps and public like this weekend:Pittsburgh (+3 +106) at Denver O/U 41The Steelers have impressed, winning two straight playoff road games overthe Bengals and the Colts. Pittsburgh has made it this far by utilizing astrategy similar to Denver’s – running the ball and defending the runfirst.Denver and Pittsburgh had the second and fifth-ranked rushing attacksrespectively in the NFL and on run-defense, they ranked #2 and #3.Featuring the run has helped both teams reduce turnovers as sacks andturnovers happen with far more frequency when teams are forced to pass. Byfocusing on the run and rush defense, both teams have avoidedinterceptions and get more opportunities to pressure opposing teams’quarterbacks.We’ve seen heavy volume on this game after opening the spread with theSteelers at +3 (-116). The public clearly favors the Steelers, placingfive bets on Pittsburgh for every two on the Broncos. The sharps arebetting this game also, but they’re split on the game.After opening the total at 42.5 we have seen a classic, sharp versuspublic duel. The sharps are mostly on the under, while a majority of thebets placed have been on the over. As is often the case, the wise guyshave been placing bigger wagers and despite the larger bet count on theover from the public, sharp action has forced the total down to 41.Carolina (+3.5 -102) at Seattle O/U 43.5Carolina and Pittsburgh are both attempting to become the first team towin three consecutive road playoff games since the playoff format changedin 1990. Only two wildcard teams have even won 2 consecutive gamespreviously – Indy in 1995-96 and Jacksonville in 1996-97. If the lines areany indication though, Sunday might be the “day of the dog” – as 3 and 3.5point underdogs, the market strongly suggests that one of these teamscould win outright.We initially opened the Panthers as 6-point dogs in the NFC title game.The early money quickly pushed this down to +3.5 and we’re still takingmore bets on Carolina by a ratio of 2:1. Some of our sharps took thePanthers at +6 but there’s no clear consensus between the wise guys at+3.5.We opened the total at 43 and the public and sharps are again fightingover the number. At 43 we took twice as many bets on the over as on theunder. The market as a whole has crept up, even though the sharps weremainly taking the under. On high profile games like this the public tendsto line up on the over and the sharps will often take a contrarianposition.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleFour years ago, the offshore betting world was rocked by the failure of Aces Gold. While many players were surprised, most professionals and other gaming companies weren’t – any sportsbook that books irresponsibly, offers“unique numbers” or unreasonable bonuses is always at risk of going under. Although the industry has matured and companies with deep pockets like Pinnacle Sports continue to pull away from the pack, as the end of the NFLseason approaches you should ask yourself an important question: How safeis my money? The sad reality that some players risk being slow paid or not paid at allhas still not been completely eliminated from the offshore industry. For those of us that have followed offshore gaming since the beginning, the only surprising thing about the recent failure of Rich Coast Sports is that it happened during the regular season. The fact is that there is a greater risk of failing sports books going out of business in the two weeks after the Super Bowl than during any other period. This has been a rough year for some sports books. Many that are publicly-traded have already issued profit warnings to the markets citing:“the NFL sports betting margins in the US have been adversely affected recently as a result of a large number of favourites winning” or “adversely affected by a run of poor trading results on professional American Football”. Books that cater to recreational players were hit particularly hard, since the favorites covered at a 58% clip this season. Given many books have chased the traditional “dog and under” sharp players to routinely take positions on sides against the public, it has left them exposed to this run of results. The possibility that your money could disappear when a sports book goes under is a frightening thought. However, with just a little planning, youcan greatly mitigate the risk and ease your mind. Start by making an inventory of the sports books you use then ask yourself: Which of these has ANY chance of going under? Questions to ask yourself when evaluating these companies, include: Howl ong have they been in business? Are they offering uncharacteristicallyl arge reload or sign-up bonuses? Perhaps they offer an increasing number of no juice games or free half points? Are they putting out “uniquenumbers” (a sure sign that they are gambling and not booking the games)?What are the forums and gambling press saying? The safest bet is to simply avoid playing at any place you fear losingyour money. If you choose to play at an unsafe book, keep your balance as low as possible – only enough to make bets you know you will make. After the Conference Championships are concluded on January 22, there are two weeks before the Super Bowl. How much do you need at each book? You want enough money to bet on the game and perhaps on props as well. If you have already made your Super Bowl bets or aren’t making any bets at a certain book, withdraw your money. Most books in trouble will try making payouts in the weeks before the Super Bowl as they are still collecting deposits and don’t want to do anything to prevent those from drying up. If you wait until after the Super Bowl, your odds of collecting from a failing sports book drops drastically. There’s another reason to keep less money at individual sportsbooks and that’s all thanks to payment processors like NETeller. Your money atNETeller is flexible since you can have it credited at most gamingcompanies almost instantaneously. At Pinnacle Sports, NETeller payouts are made seven days a week and the money is usually in your account within a matter of minutes. If your sports book cannot offer this same level ofservice, it may be another sign to lower your balance to avoid disappointment. While you’ll want to keep a healthy balance at books you play at regularly, lesser-played books are best kept with balances sufficient for only a few bets. If you see an opportunity, you can always re-deposit. It’s one thing to make a conscious decision to risk money at a weak bookwith a balance you can afford to lose. It’s quite another to get blind-sided when your withdrawal request is denied and the sportsbook’s website disappears. Spend 20 minutes to ensure your accounts are in order, and you won’t have to worry on Monday, February 6. You can however rest assured that your money is safe at Pinnacle Sports.Established in 1998, our low margin wagering offers players up to 60%better value on NFL sides than other books. This means we are ahigh-volume, low-margin shop that always tries to balance action on games.With low minimums and the highest limits online, we attract both novicesnew to sports betting and seasoned pros alike.Whether it’s the Monday after the Super Bowl or any other time, you’llalways receive lightning-fast NETeller payouts at Pinnacle Sports. If youdon’t believe me, try us at www.pinnaclesports.com We still have playoff games before the Super Bowl. Which teams do the wiseguys like? Read below…Washington (+9) at SeattleThe Redskins’ offense was flat last week. They won, but managed only 136yards of total offense. Washington forced three turnovers, including a51-yard fumble return for a touchdown. The Bucs had over twice as many yards, but were one for three in the red-zone. Everything that could go wrong for Tampa Bay did, although the Redskins still looked lackluster. Washington will need a perfect game to beat the Seahawks, which boast the top scoring offense in the NFL at 28.2 points per game. Our opener of Redskins +9 (-113) saw heavy two-way action. Washington isclearly the public team, with twice as many wagers on them as on Seattle. Overall, the larger bets have been on the Redskins, but we are still relatively flat on the game. The sharps are split on this one and have played both sides, with some buying Washington to +10 and others Seattleto -7.5.New England (+3) at DenverTom Brady is now 10-0 as a starter in playoff games for the Patriots. In addition to his playoff streak, the Patriots won the final four regularseason games that he started and played the entire game (many Patriotstarters were rested against Miami in week 17). The Broncos are coming offa bye week and could benefit from the return of cornerback DarrentWilliams. How much does that bye week matter? Since 1990, home teams off abye week in the playoffs are an impressive 40-10.We opened with the Patriots at +3 (-112). Once again, the public likes theunderdog by a 2:1 margin and the wise guys are split. There has been a moderate amount of point-buying, which makes a 3-point Denver win a badresult for us. Pittsburgh (+9.5) at Indianapolis Despite being the only team in the AFC to make the playoffs six times in the last seven years, the playoffs have been a general nightmare for the Colts. In the last seven years, they are 2-3 in Wildcard games and 1-3 inDivisional/Championship games. This Indy team has something those past Colts teams didn’t – the #1 defense in the AFC, allowing just 15.4 pointsper game. This game opened with Pittsburgh at +10 (-111) and saw light volume. A few of our winning players took the Steelers early at +10, but the sharps have mainly avoided this match-up. We have taken slightly more Steelers actionthat has caused this line to drift down to +9.5. Carolina (+2.5) at Chicago This game features the #1 and #2 defenses in the NFC. Chicago allows only 12.6 points per game, while Carolina gives up 15.2. The last time these two teams played, the Bears recorded eight sacks on Jake Delhomme en routeto a 16-3 win.From a bookmaking perspective, this game is almost a mirror of the NewEngland-Denver game. We opened with Panthers at +3 -111 and took heavytwo-way action. The wise guys were playing both sides buying off of the“3”, setting up another reverse-middle situation for us. The line on thegame has now settled at Carolina +2.5 (+105).
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Odds on Reggie Bush"s NFL Rookie Campaign

ODDS ON REGGIE BUSH’S NFL ROOKIE CAMPAIGN AT PINNACLESPORTS.COM
Heisman Winner Favored To Rush For 1,000 Yards & Win NFL Offensive RookieAward
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (January 6, 2006)—Now that he just finished playing in one of the greatest national championship games in NCAA history, it’s only a matter of time before Heisman winner Reggie Bush officially declares forthe 2006 NFL Draft. Drawing comparisons to NFL greats like Gayle Sayersand Barry Sanders, the experts believe Bush is the unquestioned top pickin April’s draft if he leaves college following his junior season.Anticipating that Reggie Bush is certain to enter this year’s NFL draft,leading online sportsbook PinnacleSports.com today opened betting on howthe Heisman-winning running back will perform during his rookie season.The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com hascreated a number of betting lines on Reggie Bush’s rookie campaignincluding if he‘ll rush for 1,000 yards, win Offensive Rookie of the Yearhonors and make the NFL Pro Bowl. Believing that he’ll instantly becomethe feature back for the team that selects him, the odds makers atPinnacleSports.com have made Bush a 10/13 favorite to run for 1,000 yardsor more in his rookie year. The odds that his rookie season will result inBush capturing the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award are also inthe running back’s favor at 5/9. Although everyone expects Reggie Bush tohave a very successful NFL debut, the likelihood that he’ll be named tothe NFL Pro Bowl in his first season is a 2/1 underdog. PinnacleSports.comhas even calculated odds on Bush doing his best LaDainian Tomlinson impersonation by throwing a touchdown pass, which currently stands as a 7/2 long shot.
“The opportunity to be the first overall pick in the NFL draft comes a long
once in a lifetime, and with two national championships and a Heisman
already on his resume, there’s no real reason why Reggie Bush shouldn’t
declare for the NFL draft,” said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. “With comparisons to Hall of Fame running backs, there’s little doubt that
Reggie Bush will make an immediate impact in the NFL and should be ashoe-in for 1,000 yards rushing and the Offensive Rookie of the Year if heremains healthy.”Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*Will Reggie Bush Rush For 1,000 Yards As An NFL Rookie?
Yes 10/13No 11/10
Will Reggie Bush Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year?
Yes 5/9No 8/5
Will Reggie Bush Make The Pro Bowl As A Rookie?
No 1/2Yes 2/1
Will Reggie Bush Throw A TD Pass As A Rookie?
No 1/4Yes 7/2
For additional information and a complete list of odds,
please visitwww.pinnaclesports.com.

Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleIn the early years of sports betting, public money was the dominantfactor. The influence of public money was so great that the lines wereoften over inflated to force some control over the positions a sportsbookwould take on a game. The squares forced certain patterns every week –take the favorite and over early, and the dog and under right before post.These patterns were even more pronounced for Monday night games and theplayoffs.Things gradually changed. The number of wise guys kept growing, syndicatesformed and these winning players bet more and more. A few years ago, westarted seeing games where the sharps bet a lot more money than thepublic. The old trends started getting bucked – a Monday night dog wouldnot keep going up, as the sharps forced the price back down. The influenceof sharps became more prominant, and this has changed the way the entireoffshore world works.There’s still two distinct pools of money, but the hierarchy has changed.The public still bets growing amounts on games and exotics, but they’re nolonger the dominant force controlling the line. Runaway lines during theregular season are now a thing of the past – the influence of public moneyis now dwarfed by the ‘sharper’ betting volume of the establishedsyndicates and emerging sharps. The dramatic 1 or 1.5 point moves in thehour before the game are a thing of the past.But then there is the post season where everything can change and theinfluence of public money is hard for a sports book to ignore…Smart players can still exploit the line movements caused by sharp andpublic money during the post season by recognizing who plays where. First,you can get a measure of which side is sharp by watching the way theopening betting line surges at Pinnacle Sports, where the early line movesare predominantly caused by sharp players. Second, it’s important to shoparound and identify which books will give you the best prices for yourplaying style.You should always have a variety of sharp and recreational books so youcan get the best price on the side you like. If you prefer the traditionalsharp angles of playing dogs and unders, you’d do well to shop at a bookthat caters to recreational players. Their lines are a full point betterthan those of a typical “sharp” book. Similarly, the sharp books willoften offer the best price on favorites and overs.It’s also important to have at least one account at a reduced juice sportsbook where you can often find best price on both sides of the game. Forexample take PinnacleSports.com which was the first sports book tointroduce reduced margin wagering. At Pinnacle Sports Book we use a -104style pricing model on NFL sides giving players up to 60% better valuethan other bookmakers.For this weekend’s playoff games, you might want to take a closer look atteasers before pulling the trigger, as these can be treacherous during thefirst week of the playoffs. For the last 15 years, the average margin ofvictory in the regular season has been 11.4 points. One would think thatthe playoffs would be closer, since the wildcard round has relativeparity, but this isn’t the case. Instead of having closer games, theaverage margin of victory goes UP to 13.2 (and stays above 13.2 for allrounds of the playoffs and the Super Bowl). When the margin of victorygoes up, points you get from a teaser become less valuable.There is another surprising trend in this world of relative parity – homefield advantage during the playoffs. Since 1990, home teams have coveredthe spread 58% of the time in the first round and 76% of the time whenteased. As you may recall from earlier Pulse articles, you need to add atleast 20% to your win-rate to make playing a teaser worthwhile.For this weekend’s wildcard games, consider this information and how toplay or tease them.Washington (+2.5) at Tampa BayWashington finished the season with five straight wins to snatch awildcard in the NFC. They did this with a balanced offense and defensethat, while neither was dominant, both were above average. Tampa Bay wonits division by winning four of its last five games. The Bucs did it withthe #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 278 yards per game. Their offensewas conservative, which relied on a low-risk running attack to eat up timeand shorten games.We initially opened the Redskins at +3 -121 and saw heavy two-way action.The sharps are divided on this game, but seem to slightly favor theRedskins. The public also favors Washington, which caused this line tonudge down. We’re also taking moderate volume on Washington teasers, butthis is not from our sharper players.Jacksonville (+8) at New EnglandAfter starting at 4-4, New England won four of its last five games toclinch its division. They did this despite being the only playoff teamwith a negative turnover differential (at -6 for the season). Jacksonvillefinished at 12-4, 2 games better than the Patriots, but thanks to sharinga division with the 14-2 Colts, the Jaguars could only win a wildcard, andare on the road.After opening at Jacksonville +7.5, we saw heavy balanced two-way action.The sharps are split on this game as well, taking the points or playingthe Patriots bought down to -6.5 and -7. Some sharps are also playingteasers on the Patriots from -8 to -2. By moving the line to New England-8 +101, we are dealing about the same price as -7.5 -104, but it makesteasing less attractive.Carolina (+2.5) at New York GiantsAfter having the inside track to the NFC South title, Carolina lost twohome games in December and yielded the title to Tampa Bay. Consequently,the Panthers begin their playoff journey on the road in New York. TheGiants managed to win four of their last five games, but Eli Manning hashad difficulties. In December, he’s thrown 7 interceptions to just 4touchdowns and his passer rating was an abysmal 64.9%. Tiki Barber hasstepped up for the offense in that same time period, netting 742 yards inthose 5 games.This is our highest volume game of the week. After opening with Panthers+3 -120, the sharps drove the line to +2.5. This is a classic money duelbetween the sharps on Carolina, offset by public money on the Giants.Money continues to pour in on both sides, with the sharps matching thepublic bettors dollar for dollar.Pittsburgh (-3) at CincinnatiIt is rare that a home team is an underdog in the first week of theplayoffs. In the last 10 years, it has only happened 5 times. How have thehome dogs fared? 5-0 against the spread, and 5-0 straight up.Our opener of Steelers -2.5 -113 saw heavy two-way action. Once again, thesharps were split evenly on this game, taking Pittsburgh at -2.5 andCincinnati at +3. The public is also evenly split, but slightly favors theSteelers.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!