Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleIn the early years of sports betting, public money was the dominantfactor. The influence of public money was so great that the lines wereoften over inflated to force some control over the positions a sportsbookwould take on a game. The squares forced certain patterns every week –take the favorite and over early, and the dog and under right before post.These patterns were even more pronounced for Monday night games and theplayoffs.Things gradually changed. The number of wise guys kept growing, syndicatesformed and these winning players bet more and more. A few years ago, westarted seeing games where the sharps bet a lot more money than thepublic. The old trends started getting bucked – a Monday night dog wouldnot keep going up, as the sharps forced the price back down. The influenceof sharps became more prominant, and this has changed the way the entireoffshore world works.There’s still two distinct pools of money, but the hierarchy has changed.The public still bets growing amounts on games and exotics, but they’re nolonger the dominant force controlling the line. Runaway lines during theregular season are now a thing of the past – the influence of public moneyis now dwarfed by the ‘sharper’ betting volume of the establishedsyndicates and emerging sharps. The dramatic 1 or 1.5 point moves in thehour before the game are a thing of the past.But then there is the post season where everything can change and theinfluence of public money is hard for a sports book to ignore…Smart players can still exploit the line movements caused by sharp andpublic money during the post season by recognizing who plays where. First,you can get a measure of which side is sharp by watching the way theopening betting line surges at Pinnacle Sports, where the early line movesare predominantly caused by sharp players. Second, it’s important to shoparound and identify which books will give you the best prices for yourplaying style.You should always have a variety of sharp and recreational books so youcan get the best price on the side you like. If you prefer the traditionalsharp angles of playing dogs and unders, you’d do well to shop at a bookthat caters to recreational players. Their lines are a full point betterthan those of a typical “sharp” book. Similarly, the sharp books willoften offer the best price on favorites and overs.It’s also important to have at least one account at a reduced juice sportsbook where you can often find best price on both sides of the game. Forexample take PinnacleSports.com which was the first sports book tointroduce reduced margin wagering. At Pinnacle Sports Book we use a -104style pricing model on NFL sides giving players up to 60% better valuethan other bookmakers.For this weekend’s playoff games, you might want to take a closer look atteasers before pulling the trigger, as these can be treacherous during thefirst week of the playoffs. For the last 15 years, the average margin ofvictory in the regular season has been 11.4 points. One would think thatthe playoffs would be closer, since the wildcard round has relativeparity, but this isn’t the case. Instead of having closer games, theaverage margin of victory goes UP to 13.2 (and stays above 13.2 for allrounds of the playoffs and the Super Bowl). When the margin of victorygoes up, points you get from a teaser become less valuable.There is another surprising trend in this world of relative parity – homefield advantage during the playoffs. Since 1990, home teams have coveredthe spread 58% of the time in the first round and 76% of the time whenteased. As you may recall from earlier Pulse articles, you need to add atleast 20% to your win-rate to make playing a teaser worthwhile.For this weekend’s wildcard games, consider this information and how toplay or tease them.Washington (+2.5) at Tampa BayWashington finished the season with five straight wins to snatch awildcard in the NFC. They did this with a balanced offense and defensethat, while neither was dominant, both were above average. Tampa Bay wonits division by winning four of its last five games. The Bucs did it withthe #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 278 yards per game. Their offensewas conservative, which relied on a low-risk running attack to eat up timeand shorten games.We initially opened the Redskins at +3 -121 and saw heavy two-way action.The sharps are divided on this game, but seem to slightly favor theRedskins. The public also favors Washington, which caused this line tonudge down. We’re also taking moderate volume on Washington teasers, butthis is not from our sharper players.Jacksonville (+8) at New EnglandAfter starting at 4-4, New England won four of its last five games toclinch its division. They did this despite being the only playoff teamwith a negative turnover differential (at -6 for the season). Jacksonvillefinished at 12-4, 2 games better than the Patriots, but thanks to sharinga division with the 14-2 Colts, the Jaguars could only win a wildcard, andare on the road.After opening at Jacksonville +7.5, we saw heavy balanced two-way action.The sharps are split on this game as well, taking the points or playingthe Patriots bought down to -6.5 and -7. Some sharps are also playingteasers on the Patriots from -8 to -2. By moving the line to New England-8 +101, we are dealing about the same price as -7.5 -104, but it makesteasing less attractive.Carolina (+2.5) at New York GiantsAfter having the inside track to the NFC South title, Carolina lost twohome games in December and yielded the title to Tampa Bay. Consequently,the Panthers begin their playoff journey on the road in New York. TheGiants managed to win four of their last five games, but Eli Manning hashad difficulties. In December, he’s thrown 7 interceptions to just 4touchdowns and his passer rating was an abysmal 64.9%. Tiki Barber hasstepped up for the offense in that same time period, netting 742 yards inthose 5 games.This is our highest volume game of the week. After opening with Panthers+3 -120, the sharps drove the line to +2.5. This is a classic money duelbetween the sharps on Carolina, offset by public money on the Giants.Money continues to pour in on both sides, with the sharps matching thepublic bettors dollar for dollar.Pittsburgh (-3) at CincinnatiIt is rare that a home team is an underdog in the first week of theplayoffs. In the last 10 years, it has only happened 5 times. How have thehome dogs fared? 5-0 against the spread, and 5-0 straight up.Our opener of Steelers -2.5 -113 saw heavy two-way action. Once again, thesharps were split evenly on this game, taking Pittsburgh at -2.5 andCincinnati at +3. The public is also evenly split, but slightly favors theSteelers.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!