Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleOfficiating can be a factor that makes handicapping games that much moredifficult and last weekend witnessed some of the most questionable NFLofficiating ever seen. No matter how much time you spend analyzing amatch-up, a judgment call can be the ultimate decider of who wins and wholoses. Losing bettors and fans remember these calls for a very long time…The officiating last weekend was so bad that the NFL admitted making amistake when Troy Polamalu’s diving interception in the fourth quarter wasoverturned. Fortunately, that mistake had no effect on the overall outcomeof the game. However, for those players that bet on the second half, itwas a different story.Pittsburgh backers took the Steelers +7.5 for the second half. After theinterception reversal, the Colts scored a TD followed by a 2-pointconversion on the drive. Without that score, Indianapolis -7.5 would nothave covered and Steelers bettors would have won the money.Earlier in the same game, the Steelers were facing fourth and inches whentwo Colts charged across the line of scrimmage and pointed at a Steelerlineman. Play was halted and no penalty called although there should havebeen a call for either a false-start or off-sides.The New England-Denver game also had a number of questionable callsappearing to favor the home team. In the first quarter, Patriotscornerback Asante Samuel was called for pass interference, advancing theBroncos 39 yards to the 1-yard line for an eventual score. Replay showedthat Samuel had position and made very little contact with Denver receiverAshley Lelie on the play.Later in the game, Denver’s Champ Bailey intercepted a pass in theend-zone and nearly returned it for a touchdown before he was hit andfumbled out of bounds. The officials ruled it remained Denver’s ballalthough it appeared that the ball went out of bounds in the end-zone, andNew England should have regained possession at their own 20 yard-line viaa touchback.Let’s hope things are better this weekend as there are now just three morecompetitive games before the curtain comes down on the NFL this season.Although these are clearly the biggest games of the year, it’s wise tostay focused on your money management. There’s always a temptation to betmore, but these games should be treated no differently than any other froma handicapper’s perspective.Resist the temptation to bet more on a side or total simply because theseason is coming to an end. It’s all about winning and you couldpotentially find more value to justify a stronger play on Sunday’sNiagara-St. Peter’s NCAA match-up for instance, than betting the house onthe AFC Championship game.If you find props or other bets you like, spread your money out as younormally would, but don’t throw it all on one side bet. Too many factors(or even referee calls) can go wrong in one game to justify overextendingyourself.Before making your plays this weekend, remember that there’s a limitedtime between the AFC and NFC Championship games to get your bets in -typically, just 15 minutes or less. With all the viewers of the AFC titlegame running to their computers to get action on the Panthers-Seahawksgame, there is an annual 15-minute period that’s traditionally the mostintense time of the year for online sports books.From past experience, many sports books will unfortunately not be able tohandle the stress this puts on their Web servers and database. Websitesmay be slow or worse still, they might be down altogether as their serversbuckle under the load. If you want to get action on the NFC title game ata sports book other than Pinnacle Sports, consider making your plays wellbefore the Pittsburgh-Denver game ends.If you fail to get your bets in before the game kicks off in Seattle, youstill have another option - live betting at Pinnacle Sports. The PinnacleSports book is known for outstanding value on sides and totals, and ourlive lines are no different. For in-running betting throughout the game,we use a -108 style pricing model, which still offers better value thanthe normal price offered by other sportsbooks before the game kicks off.If you like to get your plays in early, you can benefit even more fromPinnacle Sportsbook’s reduced margin wagering, which uses a -104 pricingmodel that gives bettors up to 60% better value on NFL sides than otherbookmakers. If you haven’t placed your wagers yet, you might want toconsider who the sharps and public like this weekend:Pittsburgh (+3 +106) at Denver O/U 41The Steelers have impressed, winning two straight playoff road games overthe Bengals and the Colts. Pittsburgh has made it this far by utilizing astrategy similar to Denver’s – running the ball and defending the runfirst.Denver and Pittsburgh had the second and fifth-ranked rushing attacksrespectively in the NFL and on run-defense, they ranked #2 and #3.Featuring the run has helped both teams reduce turnovers as sacks andturnovers happen with far more frequency when teams are forced to pass. Byfocusing on the run and rush defense, both teams have avoidedinterceptions and get more opportunities to pressure opposing teams’quarterbacks.We’ve seen heavy volume on this game after opening the spread with theSteelers at +3 (-116). The public clearly favors the Steelers, placingfive bets on Pittsburgh for every two on the Broncos. The sharps arebetting this game also, but they’re split on the game.After opening the total at 42.5 we have seen a classic, sharp versuspublic duel. The sharps are mostly on the under, while a majority of thebets placed have been on the over. As is often the case, the wise guyshave been placing bigger wagers and despite the larger bet count on theover from the public, sharp action has forced the total down to 41.Carolina (+3.5 -102) at Seattle O/U 43.5Carolina and Pittsburgh are both attempting to become the first team towin three consecutive road playoff games since the playoff format changedin 1990. Only two wildcard teams have even won 2 consecutive gamespreviously – Indy in 1995-96 and Jacksonville in 1996-97. If the lines areany indication though, Sunday might be the “day of the dog” – as 3 and 3.5point underdogs, the market strongly suggests that one of these teamscould win outright.We initially opened the Panthers as 6-point dogs in the NFC title game.The early money quickly pushed this down to +3.5 and we’re still takingmore bets on Carolina by a ratio of 2:1. Some of our sharps took thePanthers at +6 but there’s no clear consensus between the wise guys at+3.5.We opened the total at 43 and the public and sharps are again fightingover the number. At 43 we took twice as many bets on the over as on theunder. The market as a whole has crept up, even though the sharps weremainly taking the under. On high profile games like this the public tendsto line up on the over and the sharps will often take a contrarianposition.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleFour years ago, the offshore betting world was rocked by the failure of Aces Gold. While many players were surprised, most professionals and other gaming companies weren’t – any sportsbook that books irresponsibly, offers“unique numbers” or unreasonable bonuses is always at risk of going under. Although the industry has matured and companies with deep pockets like Pinnacle Sports continue to pull away from the pack, as the end of the NFLseason approaches you should ask yourself an important question: How safeis my money? The sad reality that some players risk being slow paid or not paid at allhas still not been completely eliminated from the offshore industry. For those of us that have followed offshore gaming since the beginning, the only surprising thing about the recent failure of Rich Coast Sports is that it happened during the regular season. The fact is that there is a greater risk of failing sports books going out of business in the two weeks after the Super Bowl than during any other period. This has been a rough year for some sports books. Many that are publicly-traded have already issued profit warnings to the markets citing:“the NFL sports betting margins in the US have been adversely affected recently as a result of a large number of favourites winning” or “adversely affected by a run of poor trading results on professional American Football”. Books that cater to recreational players were hit particularly hard, since the favorites covered at a 58% clip this season. Given many books have chased the traditional “dog and under” sharp players to routinely take positions on sides against the public, it has left them exposed to this run of results. The possibility that your money could disappear when a sports book goes under is a frightening thought. However, with just a little planning, youcan greatly mitigate the risk and ease your mind. Start by making an inventory of the sports books you use then ask yourself: Which of these has ANY chance of going under? Questions to ask yourself when evaluating these companies, include: Howl ong have they been in business? Are they offering uncharacteristicallyl arge reload or sign-up bonuses? Perhaps they offer an increasing number of no juice games or free half points? Are they putting out “uniquenumbers” (a sure sign that they are gambling and not booking the games)?What are the forums and gambling press saying? The safest bet is to simply avoid playing at any place you fear losingyour money. If you choose to play at an unsafe book, keep your balance as low as possible – only enough to make bets you know you will make. After the Conference Championships are concluded on January 22, there are two weeks before the Super Bowl. How much do you need at each book? You want enough money to bet on the game and perhaps on props as well. If you have already made your Super Bowl bets or aren’t making any bets at a certain book, withdraw your money. Most books in trouble will try making payouts in the weeks before the Super Bowl as they are still collecting deposits and don’t want to do anything to prevent those from drying up. If you wait until after the Super Bowl, your odds of collecting from a failing sports book drops drastically. There’s another reason to keep less money at individual sportsbooks and that’s all thanks to payment processors like NETeller. Your money atNETeller is flexible since you can have it credited at most gamingcompanies almost instantaneously. At Pinnacle Sports, NETeller payouts are made seven days a week and the money is usually in your account within a matter of minutes. If your sports book cannot offer this same level ofservice, it may be another sign to lower your balance to avoid disappointment. While you’ll want to keep a healthy balance at books you play at regularly, lesser-played books are best kept with balances sufficient for only a few bets. If you see an opportunity, you can always re-deposit. It’s one thing to make a conscious decision to risk money at a weak bookwith a balance you can afford to lose. It’s quite another to get blind-sided when your withdrawal request is denied and the sportsbook’s website disappears. Spend 20 minutes to ensure your accounts are in order, and you won’t have to worry on Monday, February 6. You can however rest assured that your money is safe at Pinnacle Sports.Established in 1998, our low margin wagering offers players up to 60%better value on NFL sides than other books. This means we are ahigh-volume, low-margin shop that always tries to balance action on games.With low minimums and the highest limits online, we attract both novicesnew to sports betting and seasoned pros alike.Whether it’s the Monday after the Super Bowl or any other time, you’llalways receive lightning-fast NETeller payouts at Pinnacle Sports. If youdon’t believe me, try us at www.pinnaclesports.com We still have playoff games before the Super Bowl. Which teams do the wiseguys like? Read below…Washington (+9) at SeattleThe Redskins’ offense was flat last week. They won, but managed only 136yards of total offense. Washington forced three turnovers, including a51-yard fumble return for a touchdown. The Bucs had over twice as many yards, but were one for three in the red-zone. Everything that could go wrong for Tampa Bay did, although the Redskins still looked lackluster. Washington will need a perfect game to beat the Seahawks, which boast the top scoring offense in the NFL at 28.2 points per game. Our opener of Redskins +9 (-113) saw heavy two-way action. Washington isclearly the public team, with twice as many wagers on them as on Seattle. Overall, the larger bets have been on the Redskins, but we are still relatively flat on the game. The sharps are split on this one and have played both sides, with some buying Washington to +10 and others Seattleto -7.5.New England (+3) at DenverTom Brady is now 10-0 as a starter in playoff games for the Patriots. In addition to his playoff streak, the Patriots won the final four regularseason games that he started and played the entire game (many Patriotstarters were rested against Miami in week 17). The Broncos are coming offa bye week and could benefit from the return of cornerback DarrentWilliams. How much does that bye week matter? Since 1990, home teams off abye week in the playoffs are an impressive 40-10.We opened with the Patriots at +3 (-112). Once again, the public likes theunderdog by a 2:1 margin and the wise guys are split. There has been a moderate amount of point-buying, which makes a 3-point Denver win a badresult for us. Pittsburgh (+9.5) at Indianapolis Despite being the only team in the AFC to make the playoffs six times in the last seven years, the playoffs have been a general nightmare for the Colts. In the last seven years, they are 2-3 in Wildcard games and 1-3 inDivisional/Championship games. This Indy team has something those past Colts teams didn’t – the #1 defense in the AFC, allowing just 15.4 pointsper game. This game opened with Pittsburgh at +10 (-111) and saw light volume. A few of our winning players took the Steelers early at +10, but the sharps have mainly avoided this match-up. We have taken slightly more Steelers actionthat has caused this line to drift down to +9.5. Carolina (+2.5) at Chicago This game features the #1 and #2 defenses in the NFC. Chicago allows only 12.6 points per game, while Carolina gives up 15.2. The last time these two teams played, the Bears recorded eight sacks on Jake Delhomme en routeto a 16-3 win.From a bookmaking perspective, this game is almost a mirror of the NewEngland-Denver game. We opened with Panthers at +3 -111 and took heavytwo-way action. The wise guys were playing both sides buying off of the“3”, setting up another reverse-middle situation for us. The line on thegame has now settled at Carolina +2.5 (+105).
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Odds on Reggie Bush"s NFL Rookie Campaign

ODDS ON REGGIE BUSH’S NFL ROOKIE CAMPAIGN AT PINNACLESPORTS.COM
Heisman Winner Favored To Rush For 1,000 Yards & Win NFL Offensive RookieAward
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (January 6, 2006)—Now that he just finished playing in one of the greatest national championship games in NCAA history, it’s only a matter of time before Heisman winner Reggie Bush officially declares forthe 2006 NFL Draft. Drawing comparisons to NFL greats like Gayle Sayersand Barry Sanders, the experts believe Bush is the unquestioned top pickin April’s draft if he leaves college following his junior season.Anticipating that Reggie Bush is certain to enter this year’s NFL draft,leading online sportsbook PinnacleSports.com today opened betting on howthe Heisman-winning running back will perform during his rookie season.The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com hascreated a number of betting lines on Reggie Bush’s rookie campaignincluding if he‘ll rush for 1,000 yards, win Offensive Rookie of the Yearhonors and make the NFL Pro Bowl. Believing that he’ll instantly becomethe feature back for the team that selects him, the odds makers atPinnacleSports.com have made Bush a 10/13 favorite to run for 1,000 yardsor more in his rookie year. The odds that his rookie season will result inBush capturing the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award are also inthe running back’s favor at 5/9. Although everyone expects Reggie Bush tohave a very successful NFL debut, the likelihood that he’ll be named tothe NFL Pro Bowl in his first season is a 2/1 underdog. PinnacleSports.comhas even calculated odds on Bush doing his best LaDainian Tomlinson impersonation by throwing a touchdown pass, which currently stands as a 7/2 long shot.
“The opportunity to be the first overall pick in the NFL draft comes a long
once in a lifetime, and with two national championships and a Heisman
already on his resume, there’s no real reason why Reggie Bush shouldn’t
declare for the NFL draft,” said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. “With comparisons to Hall of Fame running backs, there’s little doubt that
Reggie Bush will make an immediate impact in the NFL and should be ashoe-in for 1,000 yards rushing and the Offensive Rookie of the Year if heremains healthy.”Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*Will Reggie Bush Rush For 1,000 Yards As An NFL Rookie?
Yes 10/13No 11/10
Will Reggie Bush Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year?
Yes 5/9No 8/5
Will Reggie Bush Make The Pro Bowl As A Rookie?
No 1/2Yes 2/1
Will Reggie Bush Throw A TD Pass As A Rookie?
No 1/4Yes 7/2
For additional information and a complete list of odds,
please visitwww.pinnaclesports.com.

Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleIn the early years of sports betting, public money was the dominantfactor. The influence of public money was so great that the lines wereoften over inflated to force some control over the positions a sportsbookwould take on a game. The squares forced certain patterns every week –take the favorite and over early, and the dog and under right before post.These patterns were even more pronounced for Monday night games and theplayoffs.Things gradually changed. The number of wise guys kept growing, syndicatesformed and these winning players bet more and more. A few years ago, westarted seeing games where the sharps bet a lot more money than thepublic. The old trends started getting bucked – a Monday night dog wouldnot keep going up, as the sharps forced the price back down. The influenceof sharps became more prominant, and this has changed the way the entireoffshore world works.There’s still two distinct pools of money, but the hierarchy has changed.The public still bets growing amounts on games and exotics, but they’re nolonger the dominant force controlling the line. Runaway lines during theregular season are now a thing of the past – the influence of public moneyis now dwarfed by the ‘sharper’ betting volume of the establishedsyndicates and emerging sharps. The dramatic 1 or 1.5 point moves in thehour before the game are a thing of the past.But then there is the post season where everything can change and theinfluence of public money is hard for a sports book to ignore…Smart players can still exploit the line movements caused by sharp andpublic money during the post season by recognizing who plays where. First,you can get a measure of which side is sharp by watching the way theopening betting line surges at Pinnacle Sports, where the early line movesare predominantly caused by sharp players. Second, it’s important to shoparound and identify which books will give you the best prices for yourplaying style.You should always have a variety of sharp and recreational books so youcan get the best price on the side you like. If you prefer the traditionalsharp angles of playing dogs and unders, you’d do well to shop at a bookthat caters to recreational players. Their lines are a full point betterthan those of a typical “sharp” book. Similarly, the sharp books willoften offer the best price on favorites and overs.It’s also important to have at least one account at a reduced juice sportsbook where you can often find best price on both sides of the game. Forexample take PinnacleSports.com which was the first sports book tointroduce reduced margin wagering. At Pinnacle Sports Book we use a -104style pricing model on NFL sides giving players up to 60% better valuethan other bookmakers.For this weekend’s playoff games, you might want to take a closer look atteasers before pulling the trigger, as these can be treacherous during thefirst week of the playoffs. For the last 15 years, the average margin ofvictory in the regular season has been 11.4 points. One would think thatthe playoffs would be closer, since the wildcard round has relativeparity, but this isn’t the case. Instead of having closer games, theaverage margin of victory goes UP to 13.2 (and stays above 13.2 for allrounds of the playoffs and the Super Bowl). When the margin of victorygoes up, points you get from a teaser become less valuable.There is another surprising trend in this world of relative parity – homefield advantage during the playoffs. Since 1990, home teams have coveredthe spread 58% of the time in the first round and 76% of the time whenteased. As you may recall from earlier Pulse articles, you need to add atleast 20% to your win-rate to make playing a teaser worthwhile.For this weekend’s wildcard games, consider this information and how toplay or tease them.Washington (+2.5) at Tampa BayWashington finished the season with five straight wins to snatch awildcard in the NFC. They did this with a balanced offense and defensethat, while neither was dominant, both were above average. Tampa Bay wonits division by winning four of its last five games. The Bucs did it withthe #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 278 yards per game. Their offensewas conservative, which relied on a low-risk running attack to eat up timeand shorten games.We initially opened the Redskins at +3 -121 and saw heavy two-way action.The sharps are divided on this game, but seem to slightly favor theRedskins. The public also favors Washington, which caused this line tonudge down. We’re also taking moderate volume on Washington teasers, butthis is not from our sharper players.Jacksonville (+8) at New EnglandAfter starting at 4-4, New England won four of its last five games toclinch its division. They did this despite being the only playoff teamwith a negative turnover differential (at -6 for the season). Jacksonvillefinished at 12-4, 2 games better than the Patriots, but thanks to sharinga division with the 14-2 Colts, the Jaguars could only win a wildcard, andare on the road.After opening at Jacksonville +7.5, we saw heavy balanced two-way action.The sharps are split on this game as well, taking the points or playingthe Patriots bought down to -6.5 and -7. Some sharps are also playingteasers on the Patriots from -8 to -2. By moving the line to New England-8 +101, we are dealing about the same price as -7.5 -104, but it makesteasing less attractive.Carolina (+2.5) at New York GiantsAfter having the inside track to the NFC South title, Carolina lost twohome games in December and yielded the title to Tampa Bay. Consequently,the Panthers begin their playoff journey on the road in New York. TheGiants managed to win four of their last five games, but Eli Manning hashad difficulties. In December, he’s thrown 7 interceptions to just 4touchdowns and his passer rating was an abysmal 64.9%. Tiki Barber hasstepped up for the offense in that same time period, netting 742 yards inthose 5 games.This is our highest volume game of the week. After opening with Panthers+3 -120, the sharps drove the line to +2.5. This is a classic money duelbetween the sharps on Carolina, offset by public money on the Giants.Money continues to pour in on both sides, with the sharps matching thepublic bettors dollar for dollar.Pittsburgh (-3) at CincinnatiIt is rare that a home team is an underdog in the first week of theplayoffs. In the last 10 years, it has only happened 5 times. How have thehome dogs fared? 5-0 against the spread, and 5-0 straight up.Our opener of Steelers -2.5 -113 saw heavy two-way action. Once again, thesharps were split evenly on this game, taking Pittsburgh at -2.5 andCincinnati at +3. The public is also evenly split, but slightly favors theSteelers.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

The Pinnacle PulseThe Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleOn behalf of Pinnacle Sports, I’d like to wish everyone Happy Holidays!With all the festivities it might seem like a natural time for a break,but taking the holidays off completely might mean missing some greatfootball betting opportunities. While college football can be profitable,betting on NCAA Bowl Games can be even more lucrative, but there are a fewextra factors to consider at this time of the year.One of the most significant changes to bowl season play occurs due togrades as players become academically ineligible. Several teams will loseone or more players due to academic problems. Players are occasionallysuspended for rules violations as well and these suspensions occur withhigher frequency over a Thanksgiving or Christmas break. Significantsuspensions will be listed on Don Best and the Pinnacle Sports bettingline will usually adjust after Don Best makes an announcement.One way to get an edge is to research the teams yourself and find theinformation before Don Best makes an announcement. Local newspapers oftenannounce suspensions days before it gets picked up by the public orreleased by an injury announcement service. With an increasing number ofuniversities putting their student-run newspapers online, another goodsource is a college’s own newspaper. Together with injury information, youcan adjust both your analysis of a game or make a “quick hit” on a scalpor middle.If you stumble across a key injury or a situation where many players aresuspended, you can count on the line moving substantially. Whether or notyou have an opinion on a game, fade the team with suspensions. Once thepublic is informed of a suspension (and the line reacts accordingly) youcan take back the other side for a middle.At PinnacleSports.com there’s also the option to sell several half-pointsand play a scalp. For example, assume you were studying a theoretical TeamRed vs. Team Blue game. Local news showed that two of Team Red’s startingcornerbacks were placed on academic probation. You immediately play TeamBlue -3 -104. After the news on the cornerbacks is disseminated and thepublic is given time to react, the line drifts up to Team Blue -4.5 -109.You could either play the middle, or take Team Red +3 +109 by sellingthree half-points to make a guaranteed profit!Another area you can exploit during Bowl Season is the public’s propensityto overreact to weather. If the weather report calls for snow or rain,public bettors will consistently play the under. If there is a bona fidehurricane or blizzard that will hit the game, the public are right to playthe under. However if there’s only light rain or snow expected to fallbefore or during the game, this will not have the impact that underbettors are paying for. Unless weather conditions are truly horrendous,the right play is to fade the public on any total that moves 3 or morepoints due to weather.An additional piece of information that is both fascinating and dangerousis how large underdogs have performed in Bowl games. Double-digitunderdogs in Bowl games have hit at almost a 60% clip for many years. Froma psychological angle, the underdog is in a prime position – it hasnothing to lose and everything to gain. After having a month to prepare,both teams have time to adapt their game plans extensively which usuallymakes for a closer game than many expect. So why is this knowledgedangerous for the bettor? Like any trend, the market correctsinaccuracies. More and more players blindly play the large dogs and thesebettors will continue to do so until the betting market corrects itself.Consider these factors when you look at the line movements on these games:California (-7.5) vs. BYU (Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl)These two teams are headed in opposite directions. California started hotat 5-0 but then dropped 4 of its last 6 games to finish at 7-4 as theGolden Bears’ passing game has struggled under QB Joseph Ayoob. Afterlimping to a 1-3 start, BYU turned it around and won 5 of its last 7. TheCougars’ first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall has built an offense around QBJohn Beck, who had 3,357 passing yards and a passer rating of 138.1.Our opener of Cal -7 -105 was ignored by the sharps. The public likesCalifornia, with 80% of the bettors backing the Golden Bears. Public moneyhas forced the line to creep up to Cal -7.5 -105. Sad though it is, thisis our highest-volume NCAA Bowl game so far this week.Navy (-2.5) vs. Colorado St. (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)Navy enters this game with the nation’s #1 rushing offense, averaging305.9 yards per game. Colorado St., on the other hand, allows over 200rushing yards per game. Despite the amount of rushing, Navy games tend tobe high scoring averaging 55 points per game. The Rams offense is just theopposite – it relies on a pass-heavy attack led by QB Justin Holland. In2005 he completed over 62% of his passes for 2,804 yards, and had a 143passer rating.When comparing stats between teams, you should be acutely aware of thestrength of schedule for each team. According to Sagarin ratings, ColoradoState’s strength of schedule was the 58th most difficult among Div I-Aschools, compared to Navy’s rating of 102nd. This strongly suggests oneshould adjust Navy’s stats downward when analyzing this game.We occasionally have a “sharp vs. public” game and this is one of them.The wise guys are solidly on Colorado St. The public is favoring theMidshipmen by a 3:1 ratio. Despite the public backing, we are relativelyflat due to the larger average bet-size of the sharps.NY Giants (+3) at WashingtonBehind Tiki Barber’s 220 yards rushing last weekend, the Giants knockedoff the Chiefs 27-17 and closed to within one game of winning itsdivision. Part of the Giants’ success has been a consistent running game,averaging 146 yards/game. The Giants can clinch the division with a winhere, or with a win next weekend at Oakland.Washington has won three straight games and will advance to the playoffsif it wins its last two. Due to its 8-2 NFC record, Washington can alsosecure a wildcard with a win over New York combined with losses by Dallas,Minnesota and Atlanta this week.We opened at Washington -3 -107, and took a few early sharp hits on theRedskins. As the line crept up, we saw sharp opposition on the Giants at+3 +112. Given the price each took, both sharp positions are “correct”. Thus far, this has been our highest volume game of the week. The publicfavors the Giants and we are presently taking twice as many bets on them.Minnesota (+2.5) at BaltimoreAfter winning six of its last seven, Minnesota is in contention for awildcard spot, but they need to win tough games against Baltimore andChicago. Finishing at 9-7 would probably still not be enough; the NFCconference record is the tiebreaker in most cases with 3+ teams tied for awildcard spot. With a current NFC record of 7-4, the Vikings would beselected after Washington (8-2) and Tampa Bay/Carolina (both at 7-3).We initially opened this game at Minnesota -1 -112. The sharps wereunanimous in backing Baltimore even before the Monday night 48-3 blowoutof the Packers. The sharps mostly got their bets in on Baltimore as asmall dog, playing the Ravens down to -1 -114. After the Monday Night gamethe public followed the sharps, driving the price up to Baltimore -2.5-113. We have accepted three bets on Baltimore for every one on Minnesota.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

The Inside Line From PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
The talk of this NFL season has been how the Indianapolis Colts have
dominated their opponents on their way to an astounding 12-0 start.
Only
the 1972 Dolphins have finished with an unblemished regular season
record
and no team has gone undefeated since the schedule was expanded to 16
regular season games. With this in mind, one has to wonder what the
chances are that Indianapolis will win out its last 4 games.
Next up on the schedule are the Jacksonville Jaguars, the only team to
have a second-half lead against the Colts. In their first meeting,
Jacksonville was up 3-0 before losing 10-3. The moneyline on this game
at
Pinnacle Sports is -316/+296, which suggests that Indy will win this
match-up 74.7% (306/406) of the time.
At 12-0, Indianapolis has already clinched a playoff spot and if they
defeat the Jaguars, the Colts will also secure home field advantage
throughout the playoffs. This adds a new twist to the equation: Will
Coach
Tony Dungy rest his key players? When interviewed, he was unsure. A
quarterback has about a 1 in 16 chance of getting injured if he plays a
full game. For this reason, it’s common for playoff-bound teams in
meaningless games to rest key starters. Despite Dungy’s ambiguous
answers
to questions on resting players, I think he’ll maintain his focus on
winning the Super Bowl.
If they reach 13-0, the Colts would then host the Chargers with home
field
advantage locked up. If this game were played two weeks earlier, the
Colts
would be about an 11-point favorite (-830/+750). In that scenario, Indy
would win about 88.7% of the time. In past seasons, the lines have
adjusted about 6 points for teams in “rest situations”, but the resting
teams have done poorly against the spread. I believe we are therefore
likely to see an 8-point spread adjustment, so resting most starters
would
change the line to Colts -3 (-150/+140), suggesting Indy would win 59%.
Beating San Diego would make Indianapolis 14-0, and they would next
visit
Seattle. The Seahawks have already won their division and would likely
be
playing for home field advantage. If neither team were resting, the
visiting Colts would be about 4-point favorites. Assuming the Colts nap
and the Seahawks don’t also take the afternoon off, the adjusted line
would be Seahawks -4 (-185/+175). In either case, the 4-point favorite
should win about 64% of the time.
Should the Colts be 15-0 heading into the final week of the season,
they
would be heavy favorites at home versus Arizona. Super Bowl aspirations
aside, I’m not sure Coach Dungy could rest his players at home against
a
cakewalk opponent with history on the line. If the Colts played full
strength, this line would be about -18 with a greater home field
advantage
than normal. Resting would still make the Colts a solid 10-point
favorite.
The Colts will win 94% if they don’t rest, or 87% if they do.
In conclusion: if Indy chooses to rest its players, I calculate the
chances of them going 16-0 as:
(0.747) (0.59) (0.36) (0.87) = 13.8%, or -654 (No) / +594 (yes).
However if Indy plays for history, the odds of going 16-0 adjust to:
(.747)(.887)(.64)(.94) = 40%, or -155 (No) / +145 (Yes).
Do you have an opinion on whether Indy will finish 16-0? Have you read
something I’ve missed about Tony Dungy’s willingness to risk injuries
to
Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison while chasing a
perfect
regular season record? Or do you have some other insight? You can bet
your
opinion at PinnacleSports.com as we are now offering odds on the prop:
Will Indy go 16-0?
Yes +146
No -164
We have also seen interesting line movement on Indy’s AFC South
match-up
against the Jags this week as well as on the following games listed
below.
Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville
With starting Jaguar QB Byron Leftwich out for another few weeks, the
Jags
will once again rely on replacement David Garrard. He led Jacksonville
to
victory against Arizona and Cleveland, but faces a much stiffer test
against the third-ranked defense of the Colts. A win for Jacksonville
locks up a wildcard position, whereas an Indy victory in any of its
last 4
games will secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
We opened the game at Colts -7. Indy is clearly a public team and we
are
taking four times as many bets on them as the Jaguars. The sharps seem
split on this game with some playing Indy at -7 and significantly more
on
Jacksonville at +7.5.
Chicago (+6) at Pittsburgh
The Bears have relied heavily on defense during their current 8-game
win
streak by holding opponents to 8.5 points per game, picking off 10
interceptions with 337 interception-return yards and scoring 3 TDs. Not
surprisingly, quarterback Kyle Orton has been part of a very
conservative,
run-based offense that minimizes mistakes, but only generates 16.8
points
per game.
Pittsburgh also boasts an above-average defense allowing less than 19
points per game. With Roethlisberger starting, the Steeler offense has
been productive with 337 yards per game. Unless the Chicago defense can
score or generate several turnovers, a more balanced Pittsburgh team is
the favorite to prevail.
This has been our highest volume game of the week thus far. We opened
this
game at Chicago +4 and took several early hits from sharps on
Pittsburgh.
The market price has crept up since until it topped off at +5.5 and +6.
At
this price, we are seeing the professional players side with Chicago.
New England (-3) at Buffalo
At 7-5, a New England victory would be enough to clinch the mediocre
AFC
East division (whose other three teams are a combined 11-25). The Bills
at
4-8, can still mathematically win the division by winning out the
season
and there are also a few scenarios where a 7-9 team could still win the
division.
We opened this game at -3 -125. While the public is favoring the
Patriots, there is dissent among the sharps. A majority of the pros are
taking Buffalo +3 +115, while a few are favoring New England -3
whenever
the price drifts to -115 or better.
And now for something completely different…
Miss World Finals
Over 100 of the most beautiful women on earth will gather in Sanya,
China
this Saturday to compete for the title of Miss World 2005. I can only
think that our red blooded odds makers have had way too much time on
their
hands this week, as they have created individual odds on over 40
contestants to win the Miss World title. Believe it or not, we have
seen a
very strong move and sharp money show for Miss Philippines, where our
opener of +2000 was driven down to +500.
We also originally offered Miss Namibia at +1000 to advance to the
finals
of Miss World. Knowledgeable sharps with an eye for the ladies have
also
pounded this number down to -500.

Pinnacle Pulse

The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble

It’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, talking about plays you should or shouldn’t have made over the weekend, but it’s a far more daunting task to look ahead to Saturday or Sunday, make selections and consistently pick winners. Pinnacle Sports sharp players do just that.
One of my aims when writing this column has been to help readers find a smarter way to bet at Pinnacle Sports by providing an unprecedented insight into the point spread movement on certain key games each week. The idea is to let readers know well before kick off if it’s the public or pros that are causing the line movement, how big the moves are, and if we expect any further movement before game day.
One of our readers emailed me this week asking how the wise guys were doing on the featured games. Out of interest, I went back through the first twelve editions of The Pinnacle Pulse to see just how “sharp” our sharp plays were. There were 28 games where we identified sharp action on just one side of the game. Out of those 28 selections, the sharps were an impressive 18-9-1.
Now I am not advocating that you bet every game we identify as having sharp action, but sports betting is a business of information and I just wanted you to be aware that this information is available. If you find yourself opposed by the sharps, take a closer look at the game to decide if you should make a smaller play or simply pass altogether. On the other hand, agreement with sharp action might be enough to help you pull the trigger on a game that you thought was a marginal play.
In addition to detailing the sharp action in this column, it is also worth being aware of the “Pinnacle Lean”, which you can view at anytime by comparing our NFL lines against several other books when they post their lines. At Pinnacle Sports we use -104 style pricing on NFL sides, which offers bettors up to 60% better value than other books. If the market has the Colts at -14 -110 while we have it at -14 -111 following a 7 cent move, it’s a strong indication that: a) the Colts are the right side; and b) the market will creep up to -14.5 (or higher).
The best way to exploit this is to do your handicapping homework; you should have your lines set for games you are interested in very early - preferably Sunday evening for the NFL. If your handicapping favors the Colts, play it against the early number. If you’re in opposition to the Pinnacle Lean, wait for the market to move to get the best number possible.
Another way you can use the Pinnacle Lean is with teasers. If you are considering a six point tease on a +2.5 underdog, look at the lean. If the favorite is priced at -2.5 -111 or higher at Pinnacle Sports, you might want to pass or wait to make your play to avoid teasing a dog that closes at +3. If you teased that +2.5 dog to +8.5 and the number closed at +3, this leg of the teaser only hits at a 70% clip whereas 73% is required to break even.
You can also look at the moneyline on favorites to assist in teaser selection. For instance, if you were considering teasing the Chicago Bears this week from -7 to -1 you’ll notice that the moneyline is -300/+270 with our reduced margin wagering. If the moneyline is +260 or higher on the dog as it is here, this suggests that a favorite of -8.5 or less is a solid teaser candidate. If the dog moneyline drifts below +260, you might want to reconsider teasing that favorite.
If you have any questions on this article or on any other gambling topic, feel free to email me at askthebook@pinnaclesports.com and I’ll try to answer as many questions as possible in future columns.
Hopefully I haven’t jinxed myself by highlighting this season’s 66.66% win percentage where sharp action has shown for one side on our featured games, but take a look below to see if you agree with the early line movement.
LSU (-1) at Georgia
LSU has won 10 straight games after dropping its home opener to Tennessee. The key to LSU’s success has been its defense ranked 4th in the nation, which has allowed just 13.5 points per game. Currently ranked 3rd in the BCS standings, if LSU had not lost to Tennessee it would be in the national championship hunt, but a victory in the SEC Championship game will secure a BCS berth for the Tigers.
Georgia is 9-2 and ranked 13th in the country, led by an explosive offense averaging 405.5 yards per game when Shockley starts at QB. Georgia’s two losses were to Florida 14-10 without starter Shockley and 31-30 to Auburn.
We opened this at LSU Pk -115. The sharps played the Tigers early driving the line towards LSU -1.5. The public is definitely favoring the Bulldogs and opposing the sharps. With moderate action, we are fairly flat on this game.
Navy (-6) at Army
The winner of this rivalry wins the Commander In Chief’s trophy since both teams have already defeated Air Force. Navy has the #1 rushing offense in the country, averaging 286.7 rushing yards per game with its triple-option attack. Win or lose, Navy will play Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Army is riding momentum following four straight victories after starting 0-6. The Black Knights have not won the Commander In Chief trophy since 1996.
This is our highest volume game of the week thus far. We initially opened the game at Navy Pk -110. Early sharps quickly corrected our line within minutes to -3 -131. Money continued to come in on the Midshipmen until the line briefly spiked at Navy -8. We took some large hits from sharps at +8, +7.5 and +7 before the line settled at +6. We dislike games where the line moves this much due to the liability of a 7-point Navy win middling us.
UCLA (+21.5) at USC
UCLA’s QB Drew Olson has quietly racked up amazing stats including 30 TDs and just 3 INTs. Despite being 9-1 behind its potent offense, the Bruins’ defense has allowed over 30 points per game and 219.5 rush yds/game. This glaring weakness will be costly against Heisman candidate Reggie Bush, who averages 8.6 yards per carry. If UCLA cannot slow him down, expect this game to be a high-scoring blowout.
We opened the game at +25 but have seen the price driven down to as low as +20 for public favored UCLA. The sharps took USC at -20 to -21, forcing the line to stabilize around -21.5. We have four times as many wagers on the dog plus the points (which I would call the public side), but we are relatively flat due to the larger bet-size of the Trojan backers.
Houston (+9) at Baltimore
If you were wondering how bad Houston is, simply look at last week’s collapse. Up by 10 points with 34 seconds left in the 4th quarter, the Texans allowed a 43-yard TD pass, a successful onside kick leading to a game-tying field goal, and finally a 56-yard TD pass in overtime. It’s not surprising that Houston’s defense is ranked last for points allowed per game. In contrast, Baltimore’s defense is #7 in the league allowing only 287 yards per game.
Both teams’ offenses have suffered from allowing a large number of sacks – between the two teams, they’ve allowed 82 combined sacks. This, in part, explains why these two teams have the #29 and #31 point-scoring offenses
Opening the Ravens at -7, our early sharps took the favorite at -7 and -7.5 (buying down to 7). Rather than drift in a teaser’s “no-man’s land” of Baltimore -8/Houston +8, we moved to Houston +9 -117. While this price is similar to Houston +8 -108, it protects us on the teasers.

Current Events - Canadian Elections

Despite No Confidence Vote, Liberals Favored Over Conservatives
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 30, 2005)-After Monday's vote of
no-confidence brought an end to the 17-month reign of the ruling
Liberal
government, Canadian voters will head to the polls in January to decide
the future governance of the nation. With the sitting government
falling
for the first time since 1979 and possibly ending Paul Martin's hold on
Canadian politics, PinnacleSports.com today announced odds on the
outcome
of the upcoming election for control of the Canadian Parliament.
Despite being the first government to fall on a straight motion of
no-confidence, PinnacleSports.com lists the Liberals as favorites to
win
the most seats in the upcoming election at 2/5 odds. The Liberals have
also been made a 12.5 seat favorite over Stephen Harper's Conservatives
for the total seats won in January's vote. PinnacleSports.com has also
created unique over/under betting lines on the total number of seats
won
by each of the four major political parties. Although they held 133
seats
in Parliament after the last election, PinnacleSports.com believes that
recent government corruption and scandals will not go unpunished by the
electorate and lists the over/under on seats won by the Liberals at
only
120.5. The loss of Liberal MP's means potential gains for the other
political parties and the bookmaker predicts that the Conservatives
(over/under 107.5), Bloc Quebecois (over/under 60.5) and NDP
(over/under
29.5) will all gain seats in the House of Commons.
"After losing the parliamentary majority in June 2004, the public's
confidence in Paul Martin and the Liberal party has continued to wane
and
the no-confidence vote in Parliament seems to reflect widespread public
sentiment," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Despite all of the
recent controversy, the polls indicate that the Liberals will gain the
most seats in this historic election, but with little chance of gaining
an
overall majority."
In addition to offering betting on the Parliamentary seats won by the
parties, PinnacleSports.com has also posted odds on some of the key
ridings in the upcoming election. The oddsmakers currently list Liberal
Carolyn Bennett as a 10,000 vote favorite to win re-election in the
riding
of St. Paul's in Toronto over Conservative challenger Peter Kent. In
what
is certain to be one of the most closely watched votes, NDP party
leader
Jack Layton is favored by a mere 3,000 votes over Liberal Deborah Coyne
in
the Toronto-Danforth riding.
PinnacleSports.com will accept wagers on the Canadian Election until
the
vote on January 23, 2006. For more information and a complete list of
odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com
<http://www.pinnaclesports.com/> .
Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Which Party Will Win More Seats?
Liberals 2/5
Conservatives 12/5
Total Seats Won, Including All Recounts
Liberals -12.5 seats
Conservatives +12.5 seats
Total Seats Won By Liberals
Over 120.5 seats 11/10
Under 120.5 seats 5/6
Total Seats Won By Conservatives
Over 107.5 seats 5/6
Under 107.5 seats 11/10
Total Seats Won By Bloc Quebecois
Over 60.5 seats 1/1
Under 60.5 seats 10/11
Total Seats Won By NDP
Over 29.5 seats 10/11
Under 29.5 seats 1/1
St. Paul, Toronto Riding
Carolyn Bennett -10,000 votes
Peter Kent +10,000 votes
Toronto-Danforth Riding
Jack Layton -3,000 votes
Deborah Coyne +3,000 votes
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet's largest
sports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries
worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports
book
to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that
gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional
bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum
limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading
reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional
customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and
regulated in Curacao and the United Kingdom, the company offers a
secure
environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

PinnacleSports.com

Most of the guys I know were slow to embrace Off Shore Books.
They had their locals and Vegas in arms reach.
Putting up one to three dimes per play trust is a hard sell when your Off Shore.
I was one of the early Old School guys to convert, but not before several guys did it first and still kept the account small. That was quite awhile ago, now if anyone asked I'd say start with Pinnacle. I also use Neteller for fund transfer.

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You want to be a dime player? $100K is the bankroll and ofcourse you should have multiple accounts.

Keep in mind the total number of games to be played in a given sport.
I've found apporximately 30% of these games will provide edge to a player with speculation skills. Good place to hone your skill is to study the Sportbook and one of the best is Pinnacle. If your interested in opening a account your first should be Pinnacle. Look at the juice, Look at the lines, they payout immediately and lines come out early. Bonus is nice, but the meat of the deal is the juice and lines.

Here's some info.
www.PinnacleSports.com
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